This article is part of our Mound Musings series.
Last week we looked at the AL East, and for the next four weeks, I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully will have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2017 season. We're halfway home, so let's look at the:
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – With the nucleus of their rotation returning with World Series rings on their fingers, it's not too surprising that there are fairly high expectations for 2017. Of course, the downside to that is potentially inflated prices on draft day. The most notable exception could be Jake Arrieta. After a jaw-dropping 2016, he was just a human, albeit a very competent human, last season. I don't think we'll see 2015 again, but I think he can be better than 2016. Bid accordingly. The next three – Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey – are all viable rotation guys, but I would be surprised if they weren't all somewhat overpriced. Lester makes me crazy with his refusal to throw over and hold runners (yet he has remained successful), and Lackey still can be a little too hittable at times later in games, even though that wasn't a real factor last year. That said, I think my biggest concern would be Hendricks. Extreme soft-tossers tend to be vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes. If he gets just
Last week we looked at the AL East, and for the next four weeks, I'll continue to throw some names out there for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully will have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2017 season. We're halfway home, so let's look at the:
National League Central
Chicago Cubs – With the nucleus of their rotation returning with World Series rings on their fingers, it's not too surprising that there are fairly high expectations for 2017. Of course, the downside to that is potentially inflated prices on draft day. The most notable exception could be Jake Arrieta. After a jaw-dropping 2016, he was just a human, albeit a very competent human, last season. I don't think we'll see 2015 again, but I think he can be better than 2016. Bid accordingly. The next three – Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks and John Lackey – are all viable rotation guys, but I would be surprised if they weren't all somewhat overpriced. Lester makes me crazy with his refusal to throw over and hold runners (yet he has remained successful), and Lackey still can be a little too hittable at times later in games, even though that wasn't a real factor last year. That said, I think my biggest concern would be Hendricks. Extreme soft-tossers tend to be vulnerable because they don't have the raw stuff to overcome mistakes. If he gets just slightly out of synch, things could get difficult. That leaves the fifth spot for bargain hunters, and there may be one there in Mike Montgomery. The lefty just needs to beat out the ever-injured Brett Anderson and fine tune his command a bit to potentially enjoy a solid season pitching in front of that offense (and defense).
The Cubs added Wade Davis in the offseason, and he's at least penciled in as their closer. He'll be more than competent in that role to be sure. However, the team also has names like Koji Uehara (if the old master could still handle a closer's workload), Hector Rondon (with some experience but probably better suited to a set-up role) and Carl Edwards Jr. (you can't help but love his filthy stuff – he has closer emblazoned prominently on his forehead) on the roster. Is it possible the Cubs could turn the very versatile Davis into an Andrew Miller?
Recapping the Cubs:
The arm to own: Mike Montgomery
He's not for me: Kyle Hendricks
Best of the bullpen: Wade Davis
Cincinnati Reds – This is could be ugly – especially early in the season while the Reds wait for some young arms to develop a bit more. A couple of their young guys are more or less ready, especially Brandon Finnegan, who just needs a wee bit more polish to become a steady major league starter. He's joined by Anthony DeSclafani, who is marginal due to his vulnerability to left-handed swingers, but at least he's a notch above disaster. Homer Bailey would also be a huge help but he had surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow and may not be available until near mid-season (remember I said, "especially early in the season"). So who steps in? It could be journeyman long reliever Scott Feldman and/or 40-year-old Bronson Arroyo who hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2014 (and he was no ace then). There's light at the end of the tunnel, with southpaw Amir Garrett perhaps the brightest – he could be a very good one if his command continues to improve. He, along with Cody Reed (probably the closest to starter stuff now) and Robert Stephenson (a big arm who's still learning but not as far along as you would hope given his experience level) could start contributing later this season, but the Reds (and potential fantasy owners) will need to be patient.
Right now the Reds' depth chart lists Raisel Iglesias as their primary closer. That's fair enough, he would be an acceptable end-gamer. But, given the numerous short outings the rotation might turn in, he, fireballer Michael Lorenzen and lefty Tony Cingrani might best serve the team by pitching multiple innings in relief. All are probably capable of providing 100-plus respectable innings, which leads me to my pick for the closing gig when the dust settles. I look for Drew Storen to, sooner or later, claim the job.
Recapping the Reds:
The arm to own: Brandon Finnegan
He's not for me: Scott Feldman
Best of the bullpen: Drew Storen
Milwaukee Brewers – This is another rotation with a lot of potential holes – Swiss cheese perhaps? Some would consider Junior Guerra the team's "ace" after he surprised the league with some quality innings as a "rookie" (at age 31) last year. He relies heavily on a quality splitter and a decent fastball but he profiles as a middle or back of the rotation guy. Jimmy Nelson has a considerably higher ceiling but he has to throw strikes to offer you or the Brewers any useful numbers. He shows flashes so I'll consider him a modest late round flier option. Zach Davies often gets overlooked but he's comparable to a poor man's Kyle Hendricks. He's far from overpowering, but he has a solid repertoire of secondary stuff and he throws it for strikes. You could do worse at the end of your rotation. Worse could be defined as Wily Peralta. A classic two-pitch pitcher, he tosses a big outing now and then if team's do him a favor and chase, but he plummets back to Earth soon enough. Matt Garza (once upon a time I loved his stuff) probably gets the fifth spot over Chase Anderson, but neither figures to be a fantasy asset, and top prospect Josh Hader needs significant improvement in his changeup and command to make his otherwise electric stuff play well in a starting role.
Back in 2010 and 2011, Neftali Feliz saved 72 games for the Rangers. Then came Tommy John surgery with a longer than expected rehab, a short-lived experiment as a starter and finally a return to the bullpen, albeit with a fastball missing about three miles an hour. That trek consumed three years. Last season the fastball was back to 96 mph, and he fanned 61 in 53 innings. Has he discovered the fountain of health? The Brewers are hoping so, but fantasy owners willing to roll the dice on Feliz might want to handcuff the pick with Corey Knebel, just in case.
Recapping the Brewers:
The arm to own: Jimmy Nelson
He's not for me: Wily Peralta
Best of the bullpen: Neftali Feliz
Pittsburgh Pirates – Unlike the Reds and Brewers, the Pirates have a pitching staff that could potentially match pitches with the Cubs. They are considerably younger, but there's a higher ceiling here – and there's a pitching coach known for getting the most out of young talent. I'm going to list Jameson Taillon first because I have had a crush on him since he turned pro. He was excellent in his debut season last year, but we haven't seen his best yet. After almost three seasons lost to injuries, including Tommy John surgery, Taillon may have been just warming up. Add in Gerrit Cole, who spent three stints on the disabled list last season but has arguably better raw stuff than Taillon when fully healthy, and then quickly get the spyglass out to look over the horizon for fellow blue chipper Tyler Glasnow and … Argggh, ye get the idea mates! Then, Ivan Nova who arrived at midseason last year and couldn't miss the strike zone (a 52:3 k:bb over 64 innings) fills another spot. I'm skeptical regarding his ability to keep up that pace, but he should be an adequate starter. I'm guessing Drew Hutchison will come away with the fifth spot. The amazing coaching staff is tinkering with his mechanics this spring and that alone could turn him into a wild card worth a buck on draft day. The Pirates may want Glasnow to collect a few more innings at Triple-A Indianapolis, which would cede a spot to Chad Kuhl or Steven Brault, but the delay would likely be brief.
Here we have another case of an excellent relief pitcher miscast as a closer. Former lefty set-up man, Tony Watson, was elite in that role and he did a respectable job when asked to close the last couple of months last year (15 saves). He is, however, better suited to a more versatile workload, and he's entering the final year of his contract, making him a valuable trade chip. Enter free agent signee Daniel Hudson who has already been named "the closer on days when Watson is unavailable," which could be a sign of things to come. Juan Nicasio and Felipe Rivero also provide the team with alternatives, but Hudson is the best bet to step into the gig at some point.
Recapping the Pirates:
The arm to own: Jameson Taillon
He's not for me: Ivan Nova
Best of the bullpen: Daniel Hudson
St. Louis Cardinals – I am hesitant to write off future Hall of Famers when, because of injuries or just high mileage, they lose the edge. They reached that level on both their physical abilities and the mental side of the game. They usually adjust. It might take a little while but they learn how to be successful all over again. Adam Wainwright is that kind of player. Don't be surprised if he comes back with a vengeance. Carlos Martinez is arguably the staff leader these days and he deserves recognition, but he's also likely to be full price on draft day. Steady Mike Leake fills the third spot. Illness sapped his strength last year, and I look for a bit of a bounce back in 2017. With the loss of top youngster Alex Reyes for the season and Marco Gonzales until around the All-Star break (both having undergone Tommy John surgery), things get a little cloudy at this point. The Cardinals would love to solve the Michael Wacha enigma as a return to form (and putting the minor shoulder woes behind him) would be a windfall, and Lance Lynn will be back, albeit with questionable ability to make an immediate contribution. They also have Luke Weaver, who could probably benefit from more seasoning in the stable, and they're looking at former closer and certified wild man Trevor Rosenthal as a rotation option. I'll keep an eye on Wacha just in case he finds it, but the others aren't prominent on my radar.
For a couple of seasons it appeared the Cardinals would focus on making Rosenthal their ninth-inning guy for years to come. A total of 93 saves over 2014 and 2015 made it look like a pretty good idea, but those saves came with some anxiety. He never really locked in a release point, so each pitch was an adventure. Last season, his WHIP spiked at an abysmal 1.91, and after blowing four of 18 save opportunities he was replaced with veteran import Seung Hwan Oh, who had logged 357 saves over 11 seasons in Japan and Korea. There may have been questions about how his game would play in North America, but those doubts are gone. If the starting experiment with Rosenthal doesn't work out we may see him as a closer possibility again, but probably not this year.
Recapping the Cardinals:
The arm to own: Adam Wainwright
He's not for me: Lance Lynn
Best of the bullpen: Seung Hwan Oh
Next week we'll look at the AL Central …
