Mound Musings: Targeting 2017 – American League

You'll recall, last week we started looking at pitchers who could be worth targeting for 2017. If you're out of the title hunt this year, you should be using these last couple of months prepping for next year. Maybe some tactical trades for value contracts if you are in a keeper/dynasty, or building a target cheat sheet for draft day in redraft leagues. We already looked at players to target in the National League, and this week we'll take a spin through the American League. This year's contenders might be salivating over your expiring or exorbitant contracts. That's a good thing. Here's your chance to land that blue chip kid at a very nice price. Let's see who tops the list of pitchers who are establishing themselves as players to target:

Yu Darvish (Rangers) – He came off the disabled list at the end of May after missing all of 2015 following Tommy John surgery. The Rangers have understandably been fairly conservative with his workload, but they have steadily, albeit gradually, increased how deep they let him pitch into games. So far, everything has gone as well as one could hope as he has posted numbers that are nearly identical to those of his last full season in 2013 – a 1.07 WHIP, with 2.75 ERA and strikeouts that would total about 269 if he kept this pace over 210 innings. Darvish could top the AL pitchers list next season.

Kevin Gausman (Orioles) – I'm standing squarely on the Gausman bandwagon as this season rolls to a conclusion, and the promise of 2017 taunts the senses. Despite pitching in a hitter's park, Gausman has pretty much avoided too many meltdowns, but his overall numbers (1.32 WHIP and 3.93 ERA) have probably failed to spark the kind of hype that would drive his price beyond the appealing value limits. His command still flutters a bit leading to extra baserunners, and too many home runs, and the head-scratching 5-10 record further clouds his predictive certainty. Jump on; with both feet. Miniscule improvements and some run support could lead to a huge dividend.

Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays) – Command of your whole repertoire can turn a pitcher who some felt would be better off in the bullpen, into the staff leader of a post-season contender. Sanchez came out smoking and has compiled a 12-2 record (he gets his share of run support) with a solid 1.16 WHIP and a sparkling 2.99 ERA. The biggest step forward has been in walk rate which stands at 2.65 walks per nine innings as he clearly shows confidence in his full arsenal. The Jays have already started to scale back his innings as, at 156 so far, he has already far exceeded the maximum he has thrown in any season. You can expect those gloves to come off next year and anticipate a season with no restrictions if all goes as planned.

Francis Martes (Astros) – Martes came over from Miami in 2014, and nobody paid all that much attention despite his big arm. He was more of a thrower then and he really struggled to keep his release point. He seems to have locked in since joining the Astros system, and that big arm is really playing up. He has a lively fastball and a knee-buckling curve that has become all the more dangerous as his command has sharpened. His change is still fringy, but as they smooth out his mechanics, his consistency has steadily improved. They are pretty conservative with his workload, but he could show up in May or June if he keeps moving forward. He could hit the mound firing.

Carlos Rodon (White Sox) – Don't look now, but Rodon has perhaps already started to turn the corner following a rocky beginning. He just tossed his fourth consecutive quality start and appears to be cleaning up the things that have haunted him – he hasn't allowed a home run in those four outings, and he has issued just six walks. If he can continue down this path – and I think that's very possible – he could turn into a nice value buy next year. Now 4-8 with a balky 1.43 WHIP and lackluster 4.02 ERA, many could overlook him on draft day. When evaluating quality young pitchers, it's so important to assess the impact of "when" they arrived in the major leagues.

Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers) – After a season lost to injuries, Zimmermann will hope to get his house in order for the 2017 season. Many will forget he started off strong for the Tigers this year, entering June with a 7-2 record and a tidy 2.52 ERA. He then strained a groin, attempted to pitch through it, then injured his neck, sending him to the disabled list that cost him all of July. He returned earlier this month, but lasted less than two innings before departing with a sore lat. The net result of all those nagging aches and pains is a 1.30 WHIP and an unsightly 4.44 ERA combined with a huge drop in strikeout rate. That should be enough to provide a nice discount next spring.

Jose Berrios (Twins) – This is another leap of faith. I'm basing this projection on his overall skill set, and not on the current indicators. Berrios was up with the twins earlier this season, and he was, for lack of a better description, brutal. He went back to Triple-A where he had already proven himself last year, and he stepped right up (1.01 WHIP and 2.44 ERA). He has now been back with the big club for four more starts with disastrous results (1.94WHIP and 9.28 ERA). He's a different pitcher in Minnesota. He doesn't take command of the game like he has in the minors. That all suggests that he just needs a short stretch of success to build his confidence level.

Sean Manaea (A's) – Somewhat surprisingly, the A's were able to acquire Manaea from the Royals last year, and he has already worked his way into the rotation. He was very well thought of going into the 2013 draft but he dropped to the second round based on injuries to his ankle and hip. Projectable, and armed with a mid-'90s fastball, a sharp plus-slider and a serviceable change-up, the southpaw fits nicely in his pitcher-friendly home park. Like many young lefties, his first taste of the bigs has been subject to inconsistency of command, but he's a quick study and I think he can lock in soon.

There you have it – a few AL arms with positive indicators. Some aren't likely to be fantasy staff aces, but they could offer exceptional value, and that wins leagues.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I imposed a "one pitcher per team" limit on the target list above and that's the only reason the Rangers' Derek Holland isn't there. Injuries have interrupted his progress but he's lined up for a strong season if he can just stay healthy long enough to find a rhythm. He could be quite a steal on draft day.

• I'm not quite ready to buy-in on Dan Straily of the Reds. I will give him a plus for mixing up his pitches better than he has in the past, and playing for the Reds is no picnic, but he can still be hit hard at times. His BABIP is not sustainable, and some of those hits are eventually going to fall in. Tread carefully.

• Sometimes I have to shake my head. I can watch a pitcher like Tyler Skaggs of the Angels work effectively and efficiently, throwing strikes and mixing up their pitches. Then, inexplicably, they seem to forget what got 'em there. Nibbling, falling behind in counts and general lack of aggressiveness are killers.

• He's throwing and reporting no back problems so the Dodgers (and his fantasy owners) have to be anxiously awaiting the return of Clayton Kershaw. He hasn't faced live batters yet, but it's possible they will allow him to return without a rehab assignment. Barring any setbacks, he could be back in early September.

• Here's another guy who would probably be on the target list if he would just stay healthy long enough to show off his stuff. As a lefty, James Paxton creeping up on triple digits is pretty rare but he can do it. He still gets hit a little too hard at times, but that will happen less as he pitches more and mixes everything in.

• Put Jeff Hoffman in the same bag as Jon Gray. I like both young pitchers but they're dangerous propositions, especially when their starts are at home in lovely Coors Field. Hoffman's first career start was a disaster in Colorado against the explosive Cubs. Both are only really usable as spot starters.
  

The Angels' Huston Street had knee surgery, ending his season. With their first option, Cam Bedrosian, also out, it looks like Fernando Salas will get some save chances. Unless you're desperate, don't rush out to grab him. The Reds continue to use their best closing option, Raisel Iglesias, in multiple inning outings while avoiding him pitching on back-to-back nights. Tony Cingrani will probably close until that plan changes. San Diego's Brandon Maurer has actually done a pretty fair job since he inherited the closer's role. He hasn't blown a save since June 2, and that was before he started closing. With A.J. Ramos now active after recovering from a broken finger, he will likely be the first call again in Miami, moving Fernando Rodney back to a set-up role. Dellin Betances has made the transition to closing for the Yankees a seamless one. Musical closers continues in Arizona with Enrique Burgos the latest rendition. I don't expect this to necessarily last, and I'm going to stubbornly insist that their best option is still Daniel Hudson. But, don't quote me.