This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday night on the diamond, fam. Let's get after it with one of my main horses from college baseball.
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Paul Skenes Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (Over: +112/Under: -144 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Anybody that's followed me this year knows about my Paul Skenes vision. I wrote him up in the 40/1 territory for National League Rookie of the Year during the preseason before a call-up date was even in sight. I expressed just how special this dude was, especially before most of the mainstream fans and media even heard about him. And the thing people still don't understand about Mean Skenes is the fact he's only about 65 percent of the way into tapping his ceiling. On Friday night, he's dealing at home against the Mariners. Let's take a look.
The LSU phenom has made quite the splash in his rookie campaign. He started the All-Star game for the National League, racking up accolades that are near impossible, and showing stuff we haven't seen from young pitchers in a long time. That's why within the last two weeks he was about -6000 to win the National League Rookie of the Year award, a virtual lock. But then he had an "off" start against the Diamondbacks, where he gave up two earned and three walks in 5.1 innings, only striking out four. Then the next start, facing the best team in baseball (Dodgers) on the road, he allowed four earned over six innings like it was some big collapse. Now, for some insane reason, his monster lead has shrunk to about a -170 to -400 favorite (depending on the book), which makes absolutely zero sense. Padres rookie standout Jackson Merrill has had an unbelievable year to the point where he would be running away with the award if he was in the American League. With either truly incompetent morons or unfounded geniuses betting Merrill into oblivion, Skenes is losing steam in the public eye. He'll need a huge game to settle the storm.
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Through 15 starts, the 2023 top pick has racked up a 6-2 record, 2.25 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 115:20 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 92 innings of work. Just silly numbers. Additionally, Skenes has been a big friend to bettors, cashing at least eight punchouts in 10 of his 15 starts. Because of the opponent, he'll see one of his first 8.5 strikeout totals. Matchup-wise, this favors him thanks to the large and in-charge amount of strikeouts the M's are capable of pulling off. Seattle leads the majors with 1,251 strikeouts and a 27.8 strikeout rate, both by healthy margins. I think Skenes is motivated to get back into kill mode, silence the crowd about the National League Rookie of the Year race and put up a big night. The advantage is definitely in his favor.
I'm rolling with the alternate line of 9+ strikeouts at +114. For some reason, the over 8.5 is only +112, but we're getting a $2 advantage with the alt line that is the same result. I also definitely think 10+ strikeouts at +220 is very much in play. People have been talking way too much crap about my guy, so he's going to shut them up tonight.
BEST MLB BET TODAY
Paul Skenes 9+ Strikeouts Alternate Line (+114 FanDuel Sportsbook)
