This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Single Game Bets Today: Diamondbacks vs Nationals, June 8th
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Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Washington Nationals 
This matchup features two clubs that have been exceeding expectations in 2023. The Arizona Diamondbacks are currently 12 games above .500, and are the surprising leaders of the NL West. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals are dead last in the NL East, but they have looked scrappy at times and are a quietly impressive 36-24 against the spread. For all of my bettors out there, that's a 60 percent cover rate on the run line for Washington.
The D'Backs and Nats will have first pitch at 1:05PM ET, so be sure to check the MLB starting lineups and get your bets in earlier. This game could certainly make your lunch break at work much more exciting.
Merrill Kelly is slated to kick the rubber in DC as the Snakes seek the sweep (say that 10 times fast). The All-Star-worthy Kelly is touting a strong 7-3 record with a 2.80 ERA coming into Thursday's start, but his peripheral stats have been blistering.
Kelly has produced a career-best .194 opponent average and a 1.08 WHIP; being away from the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field has been fortuitous for Kelly as well, as the righty sports a 1.63 ERA on the road compared to 3.56 at home. Also, when the sun is shining, and Kelly has to slap on some sunscreen, his peripheral stats are even slightly better with a .177 opponent average and a 0.92 WHIP. The higher the SPF the lower OPS!
Washington will send Josiah Gray to the mound. Gray has been good, not great. He's really been dodging trouble with his control this season, walking 33 batters in his first 67 innings pitched, which is 4.4 BB/9, the third-worst mark in the MLB among qualified starters. Gray's ERA currently sits at 3.08, but that number seems hollow. The strikeout rate is down from last year, the walk rate is up, and his fielding independent pitching (FIP) suggests that Gray has been pitching more like a 4.76 ERA pitcher than someone flirting with a sub-3.00 ERA.
For fans of rematches, Kelly and Gray went head-to-head earlier this year on May 5th. The D'Backs beat the Nationals at Chase Field, 3-1, with Kelly (7 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 10 K) picking up the win and Gray (5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K) taking the loss. Somehow this game was the last time Gray has taken a loss, but if you believe in history repeating, this could be useful information.
When it comes to the bats in this one, Arizona's rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll has been entertainingly violent at the plate and cannot be ignored. Carroll is batting .300 with 11 home runs and 27 RBI this season and has also been a terror on the basepaths, swiping 18 bags. If he can keep up his current pace, and the Diamondbacks stay atop the NL West, forget about NL Rookie of the Year, Carrolls's looking at potential down-ballot MVP votes later this year.
Carroll is 11-for-28 (.393) over his last seven games and has a strong matchup for Thursday afternoon. The rookie homered off of Gray in their previous matchup on May 5th, and he gets to take a swing at the MLB's fourth-worst bullpen (4.83 ERA), as well.
Arizona is 8-2 in their last ten games and Washington is 3-7 in their last ten. The Diamondbacks have outscored the Nationals 16-7 in the first two games of this series, and for good measure, this Washington bullpen could be even worse.
As evidenced by their strong record on the run line, the Nats can be a pest, much like actual gnats, but I have to back Arizona here because the Snakes are slithering right now.
MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Nationals
- Diamondbacks -1.5 for 1 unit (FanDuel +104)
- Corbin Carroll OVER 1.5 Hits (FanDuel +175)
- Corbin Carroll OVER 0.5 RBI (FanDuel +120)
