This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Best MLB Bets for Sunday, March 31
The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a poor start losing their first two games of the season by a combined score of 21-7 as both starter Aaron Nola and bullpen have been shelled by the Atlanta Braves' formidable lineup. This marks the seventh season since 2006 when the Phillies lost their first two games of the regular season, and one of those seasons was 2008, when they won the World Series. So don't get too concerned just yet with the Phillies' early failures.
Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies Picks
A rejuvenated left-handed flame thrower will be on the hill for the Atlanta Braves as they look to sweep their divisional rivals Sunday. The Phillies will counter with their best left-handed starting pitcher, Ranger Suarez, who is hardly a flame thrower but knows how to get batters out.
The Phillies offense will look to be more aggressive earlier in the count against Sale and a 'small ball' strategy will be utilized to advance runners into scoring positions. Despite losing their first games, the Phillies' offense has been decent with catcher JT Realmuto batting .333 with a home run, Bryson Scott batting .500 with a .625 slugging percentage, and Nick Castellanos batting .286 with two RBI. The Phillies need their best-hitting players in Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper to get untracked. Harper is looking to get his first hit of the season, but does have two walks and a run scored.
The Starters For This Game
Ranger Suarez is a solid No. 3 starter on the Phillies roster and is coming off a decent season posting a 4-6 record with a 4.18 ERA and allowing just 13 home runs spanning 125 innings of work. He averages 93 mph with his 4-seam fastball that has late-breaking downward motion that generates easy-to-field ground balls. His best pitch though, is his curveball which averages 76 mph and is used effectively against all batters. He will set up right-handed batters with a back door target on the low-and-away corner of the strike zone that generates many looking strikes.
During Spring training Sale found his fastball and averaged 97 mph. He has reinvented himself because he's no longer throwing fastballs at 100 mph and now will throw a greater mix of sliders, cutters, and curves. All of these changes make him a less intimidating pitcher, especially to left-handed bats like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber.
Alec Bohm hit two very hard-hit line drives off of Sale in spring training and I do see the rest of the right-handed Phillies bats having enough success to get men on base and keep the pressure on Sale and the Braves defense.
A Betting Algorithm Supporting the Phillies
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 15-16 record averaging a +122 wager and earning five units per unit wagered spanning the past 20 seasons. Over the past five seasons, it has produced a 5-2 record making 4.2 units per unit wagered and earning a solid 54 percent ROI. The requirements are:
- Bet against road favorites between -100 and -150 using the money line.
- The favorite won the last two games by a margin of 6 or more runs in each game.
- The game is the last game of a three-game series.
I see the Phillies getting to Sale early in this game and earning their first win of the season. Bet the Phillies priced best at BetMGM as +114 underdogs.
As a one-unit prop bet, Whit Merrifield of the Phillies has had 31 plate appearances against Sale, batting a decent .233. Bet no more than one unit that he gets a hit today and remember this is for the full game, which Sale will not be in after the 6th at most.
LA Angels vs Baltimore Orioles
The LA Angels are off to an 0-2 start and will look to salvage the final game of this three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles set to start at 1:35 PM EST, Sunday. The Orioles have hammered the Angels by a combined score of 24-7 over the first two games, but as the following betting algorithm shows, the Angels are in an excellent situation to earn their first win priced as a significant dog.
MLB Betting Algorithm Supporting the Padres
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 29-13 record for 70 percent winning bets that have averaged a +140 wager and earned 27 units per unit wagered over the past five seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet on all underdogs between +100 and +160.
- That dog coming off a loss by 6 or more runs.
- The favorite is coming off two consecutive games winning both by a margin of six or more runs.
I see the Angels avenging these blowout losses and earning their first win of the season. Bet the Angels as an 8-Unit best at BetRivers as +135 underdogs.
St. Louis Cardinals vs LA Dodgers
The Cardinals had the unfortunate assignment to face the LA Dodgers to start their season. The Dodgers will be considered favorites for most, if not all of their games this season. The exceptions maybe when they are on the road and facing a staff ace like Strider of the Braves or Wheeler of the Phillies. Today, they are priced as -170 favorites in large part because they are starting Gavin Stone, who will be making his fifth career start.
The Cardinals hung tough Saturday and won 6-5 in extra innings. Any win on the road at Dodger Stadium is a valued one, but it does come with a price. The Dodgers are 46-19 for 71 percent winning bets averaging a -160 wager and earning a 24 percent ROI over the last two seasons when coming off a loss.
Here are some analytical notes for this game
- The Dodgers are 10-6 making 0.7 units per unit wagered when facing the Cardinals over the past three seasons.
- The Over is 9-6 in these games.
- The Dodgers are 7-2 in home games making 3.5 units per unit wagered when hosting the Cardinals
Bet the Dodgers at -170 using the money line at BetRivers.
