This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Monday, September 2
- Year-to-Date Record: 145-144-1
- Prior Article: 1-2 ( -0.95 units)
The best sports betting apps offer enticing sportsbook promos to attract sports bettors. You can boost your bankroll quickly with these promo codes. The BetMGM bonus code offers new sign-ups a first-bet bonus of up to $1,500.
MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. Summer temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Get the most competitive MLB odds before placing any bets on the best sports betting sites.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Seattle Mariners 
at Oakland Athletics 
Osvaldo Bido has been a solid starting pitcher for the A's and has come on strong over his last five starts with a 1.55 ERA and 0.79 WHIP. The key for Bido has been not allowing the long ball in those starts. The scores in his last three home starts have been 3-1, 2-0 and 3-2.
Logan Gilbert is another Mariners starting pitcher with extreme home/road splits, but he had a solid start in Oakland on June 5th, going seven innings and allowing one earned run. In this case, because Oakland and Seattle are both pitchers' parks, I do not place a ton of emphasis on his road woes.
We all know the Mariners can not hit and this is a nice spot for an under. Do not be surprised if this total starts to move down before the first pitch.
MLB Picks for Mariners at Athletics
- Mariners/Athletics UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.5 units (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers 
at San Diego Padres 
In the right spot, I think over F5 team totals are one of the best plays on the board and we get one of those with the Padres against the Tigers. The Padres destroy right-handed pitching (fourth in wRC+ in the last 30 days) and the Tigers are throwing Ty Madden, who has an 8.05 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in Triple-A since June 18th.
The thing saving Madden is he does get a lot of strikeouts (12.1 K/9 in that stretch), but these are professional hitters and the Padres have the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the last 30 days.
MLB Picks for Tigers at Padres
- Padres OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
at Chicago Cubs
Do not look now, but the Cubs have the best record in baseball since August 1st, going 19-8 and now find themselves three games back of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They are also on a six-game winning streak, including sweeping the Pirates in a recent series, scoring 41 runs in three games. The Cubs' offense has been on fire, going 9-1 to the over in their last 10, averaging almost 10 runs a game.
The Cubs just smashed Jared Jones on August 27th for five earned runs in four innings.
- Cubs -1.5 runs for 1 unit (+155 BetMGM)
- Cubs OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (+135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Mariners/Athletics UNDER 7.5 runs for 1.5 units (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Padres OVER 2.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (+100 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Cubs -1.5 runs for 1 unit (+155 BetMGM)
- Cubs OVER 4.5 runs for 1 unit (+135 DraftKings)
Don't miss out on the best MLB picks and props with RotoWire's picks tool.
