This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Team Futures: Division Odds, Playoff Picks and More
We now have MLB team props and futures up for just about every scenario. US sportsbooks have listed plain vanilla World Series, League and Division champ odds as well as Over/Under Win Totals for quite some time. Now we have markets all the way down to "Win Bands". What is a "Win Band" you ask? Well, you can now wager on any team landing in a specific range of wins. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a win total of 83.5 on DraftKings for example. If you think that total looks spot on, you can also bet on the D-Backs landing in a "Win Band" of 81-86 wins, priced at +265.
Want to fine-tune your wagers even further? DraftKings also lists Division Straight Forecast and Division Straight Trifecta markets. The Straights are markets on division foes landing in the top 2 spots, such as "1st STL / 2nd CHI" in NL Central lists at +550. Trifectas include a third team, "1st CHI / 2nd STL / 3rd CIN" at +1000, e.g.
So let us take a look at some interesting Division markets and other team-related props. The NL East and NL West house the two current MLB Super Powers. The Braves at -240 and the Dodgers at -450 sit as prohibitive favorites. Barring a rash of injuries to either team or an unexpected surge from another contender, most likely the Phillies, they will both almost certainly emerge with the flags yet again. But who wants to read about chalk? Here are some wagers I like, with Fangraphs current projections and DraftKings betting markets included.
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NL East Best Bet
"1st ATL / 2nd PHI / 3rd NY" Division Straight Trifecta +330: Parlaying Braves at -240 to win the division and Phillies +140 to come in 2nd along with the Mets at +180 would pay +852 if a sportsbook took no vig. But alas juice exists, not to mention that you cannot actually parlay these. How does this Trifecta at +330 possibly make sense? It is a correlated bet; stipulating the Braves finish first necessarily means the Phillies can only finish second at best, et. al.
The Braves are rightly the overwhelming favorites to win the division title yet again. Thus the biggest risks here are the Phillies dropping out of second and/or the Marlins landing in 2nd or 3rd.
The Phillies clearly have the second-best roster here, but have they gone full NBA? By that I mean they have proven that they set up well for short playoff series with aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, a bevy of quality relievers and a generally top-heavy roster.
It seems all about setting up for October for them, which could mean "load managing" stars like Bryce Harper to make sure they hit peak health for the playoffs. The Phillies can clearly beat Atlanta in a short series, which suggests they will not prioritize catching them in the regular season. But the flip side for this wager is that Philly becomes indifferent to finishing in 2nd or 3rd if it still means they snag a Wild Card spot. And hey, the overall 6th seed almost certainly plays the NL Central winner.
Then we have the Mets, who project as a .500 team almost literally. They carry an 81.5 Win Total market at DraftKings while Fangraphs pegs them at 80.6 wins, virtually identical to the Marlins. The 2023 Mets -- in a season where everything went wrong -- actually had a better run differential than the Marlins, -12 to -57(!). I have cautious optimism about my 2024 Mets.
The rotation looks questionable at first glance (and second and third glances as well). Jose Quintana profiles as no more than a back-end innings eater at this stage of his career, yet will get the Opening Day nod. But nominally behind Quintana, Luis Severino can flash SP1 upside and has looked great in spring, Tylor Megill, the once "Baby Goat", has a new arsenal and Sean Manaea pitched serviceably well in San Francisco last year with a 3.83 SIERA and 17.2% K-BB% despite bizarre usage patterns. Kodai Senga and his Ghost Fork will ideally return in time to front it all. Oh, and Blare the Trumpets, Edwin Diaz is back. The Mets reigned in the offseason spending a bit as they look more towards a 2025 and beyond contention window. But they still have enough to fringe contend in 2024.
AL Central Best Bet
Tigers +350: Detroit Rock City time? Central divisions have an incredibly low bar in MLB. Every team not in Tank Mode essentially shoots for 85-win rosters then hopes for a big October. The Twins rightly look like the favorites given their superior overall pitching, but an awful lot can go wrong. Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Carlos Correa are not exactly pictures of health to name a few.
Enter the improving Tigers. Lots can go wrong here too, of course, but at +350 how about we glance at what could go right? Tarik Skubal set the world on fire with 80.1 IP of 2.80 ERA pitching in 2023, backed by a 32.9% K%, 14.9% SwStr% and 2.30 xERA. If he can expand that to 150 or more IP at anything close to those levels, the Tigers have a genuine ace on their hands.
Any or all of Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows and Colt Keith could emerge as a budding star in 2024. Torkelson arguably did already in the second half of 2023 with 19 homers, a 16.4% Barrel% and 52.8% HardHit% in 72 games after the All-Star Break, though he will need to improve on his .233 Avg. and 25% K%.
Optimistically, this team has shown a willingness to expand payroll when they can compete, so perhaps we see some midseason adds. It can all come together quickly for young teams with big prospect upside, as the 2022 Orioles and 2023 Reds recently showed. Speaking of which….
NL Central Best Bet
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Reds over 81.5 Wins -115, Reds win NL Central +350: What a jumble we have here. The Cubs at +185 and the Cardinals at +190 sit as virtual co-favorites, while the Brewers at +850 look like the easy play according to the Fangraphs numbers. But color me a true Reds believer.
No one questions the young hitting talent everywhere even with Noelvi Marte shelved for half a season. Pitching always remains tough at Great America (Sm)allPark, but we do not need the Reds staff to produce Fantasy studs, we just need them to out-pitch the opposition. Potential studs abound. Frankie Montas dealt to a 3.30 ERA and 3.66 SIERA from the start of 2021 to his trade to the Yankees at the 2022 deadline, supported by a 19.2% K-BB% and 44% GB%. Then injuries and a near totally lost 2023 struck.
Hunter Greene and his near triple-digit heat feels like he has loomed on the cusp of stardom forever, but he is somehow still just 24. His career 30.7% K% would do wonders in such a tough pitching environment if he could spike a 150 IP season.
Nick Lodolo only gave the Reds 34.1 IP in 2023 and will miss at least his first start in 2024, but he has ace upside as well. Further, Cincy bolstered their bullpen nicely in the offseason with Brent Suter and Emilio Pagan, in addition to the very solid Nick Martinez who figures to swing between the rotation and the pen depending on the availability of the other starters.
NL West Best Bet
Of course, the roster will look very different this season as on base machine Juan Soto has moved on to the Yankees while Blake Snell and his Cy Young remain moored in Camp Boras. Further, solid back rotation starters Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha both signed with the Royals. But this team still aspires to remain competitive.
Enter Dylan Cease, who almost perfectly replicates Snell's ace upside and walk-the-yard downside, but with a better track record of durability. Michael King looked great as an SP for the Yankees towards the end of 2023, but carries workload questions. They have no path to fully replace Soto on offense, though they can get a little more from Fernando Tatis Jr as he missed half of April 2023 as he finished his PED suspension then put up a .335 wOBA that lagged both his career .375 level as well as his .364 xwOBA.
Again though, they can drop 10 games off their 2023 level of play and still remain in the playoff race with the roster they have now. And no team promotes their prospects more aggressively than the Padres, or trades them more willingly for win-now players for that matter. If they sniff the postseason, GM AJ Preller will almost certainly get aggressive at the deadline.
