This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Expert MLB Picks for Sunday, September 1
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Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
What a great matchup we have here in the middle of Labor Day weekend. On one side, we have the Dodgers, who for the first time in a while, field the entirety of their Galacticos-level lineup. Yet, somehow they field the weaker lineup, at least based on recent performance. That is because the Diamondbacks have mashed lately despite playing without some of their best hitters.
No Ketel Marte? No Christian Walker? No worries. The defending National League champs are missing their two top bats, yet have somehow improved with the sticks. They have triple-slashed 284/.363/.502 since the July 30th trade deadline, leading MLB in all three categories. Their 138 wRC+ easily tops the recently hot Cubs in second place (123). The Diamondbacks have done it mostly with just everyone hitting well, as opposed to one or two singular performances. There are, of course, standouts. Corbin Carroll continues to revert his way into the discussion of best hitters in the game as he has a 170 wRC+ and 11 home runs over this 29-game stretch. Eugenio Suarez has eight homers and 29 RBI and Jake McCarthy has hit .339. The three of them, plus Geraldo Perdomo, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Josh Bell and Randal Grichuk all should start today and all carry a wRC+ over 100 in this stretch. They could add an eighth if Adrian Del Castillo (158 wRC+) starts at catcher, but they tend to sit him vs. lefties. Joc Pederson (193 wRC+) will ride the pine in favor of Grichuk.
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On paper, the Dodgers have the best offense in the league, though it is of course very top-heavy. When everyone plays, that top is… incredibly heavy. The Shohei Ohtani gambling story seems like 20 years ago. So does his elbow surgery. It took some terrific hitters like Bryce Harper and Corey Seager some time to get their power back after returning from Tommy John surgery. Ohtani comes from another planet. Will he get to 50-50 (homers and steals)? Betting odds say no. FanDuel has it at +118. Regardless, he has a .293/.377/.622 line that only Aaron Judge can look slightly down on.
Mookie Betts has returned after a two-month absence, now in the two-hole in the batting order, with Freddie Freeman (.70 wOBA) third and Teoscar Hernandez (28 homers) fourth. After that, it gets a little sketchy. Gavin Lux has (maybe) found his groove as he has a .333 average with seven homers since the All-Star break, while Will Smith has gone in the opposite direction (.202 average, .289 wOBA since the start of June). Max Muncy did return recently and will likely provide lots of pop but not much in the average department from the seven-hole.
The Pick
Over 5.5 Runs F5 (+105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Two great offenses will face off vs. two pitchers with question marks. Arizona starts Brandon Pfaadt. He has had an overall good season with a 1.17 WHIP and 4.23 ERA that estimators like xERA (3.53) and SIERA (3.78) understate his work. He has slumped of late, though, with a 6.29 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in six starts back to July 27th. His fastball velocity has gone up about one mile per hour vs. earlier in the season, but his usage has gone down from 35 percent to 26 percent and it went from a plus-pitch (9.9 runs above average) to -6.1.
The Dodgers will start lefty rookie Justin Wrobleski, an excellent prospect who has only appeared on the big club this year thanks to the Dodgers' rash of pitcher injuries. He has pitched okay in five MLB starts with a 4.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. His low 18 percent strikeout rate and high 13.7 percent Barrel rate suggest he could have a tough time navigating the potent Diamondbacks lineup.
Arizona F5 overs have clicked all year, going 81-55 overall with a 13.7 percent return on investment (ROI), per VSiN.com. They're even better during the day (29-17, 19.9 percent ROI) and at home (43-25, 20.9 percent ROI).
