This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets for Sunday, August 18
Fewer than 40 games remain in the MLB regular season, or about 25% of the 162-game marathon. For the teams contending for Wild Card spots, every series essentially is a playoff atmosphere. The Phillies have not played well since the All-Star break, having one of the worst records in MLB, but somehow still have the best record in the National League. Over the past 10 games, they have turned things around and played like they did in the first three months of the season.
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The Phillies have an eight-game lead over the Braves and nine games over the Mets entering Sunday action. They have a 99% chance of being in the playoffs while the Braves have a 75% chance and the Mets have a 25% chance of earning a Wild Card berth. The Phillies will play the Mets seven times over the remainder of the season.
The Brewers are on a four-game win streak and lead the National League Central by 10 games over the Cardinals and 10.5 games over the Cubs. In the West, both the Padres and Diamondbacks have caught fire and decreased the Dodgers' lead in the division to just two and three games, respectively.
The Padres have a 4.5-game lead and hold the top Wild Card berth. The Diamondbacks have a 3.5-game lead for the second spot and the Braves are clinging to the third spot by one game over the Mets. In the American League, the Yankees hold on to the slimmest of leads over the Orioles, who hold the top Wild Card spot. The Twins have quietly chased down the Guardians and hold down the second spot with a 20-game lead. The Royals hold the third Wild Card spot by 2.5 games over the Red Sox.
Best Bets for Diamondbacks vs. Rays
The betting markets have the Rays priced as +105 underdogs and the Diamondbacks as –115 favorites in this inter-league matchup. Currently, 78 percent of the handles are on the Diamondbacks, and that is not surprising with how well they have played this month. However, it is a bit extreme and irrational for the betting community to all be on the Diamondbacks in a situation where they are prone to regress toward their season performance averages. They are batting over .300 in their past seven games. That is not sustainable in the National League where just two players are batting over .300 for the season.
Who is Starting?
The Rays will hand the ball to Drew Rasmussen, who is making his second start and fourth appearance this season. For his career, he has appeared in 88 games of which 47 have been starts. For his career, he has posted a 20-10 record with a 3.01 ERA and 1.091 WHIP including 272 strikeouts.
The Diamondbacks will have Merrill Kelly on the hill, who is 3-0 in six starts with a 2.43 ERA and 0.94 WHIP including 23 strikeouts over 29.1 innings of work.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Diamondbacks vs. Rays
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 16-12 (57 percent) record, averaging a 121-wager resulting in an outstanding 19 percent return on investment (ROI) and a $8,120 profit for the $1,000-per-game bettor and a $406 profit for the $50-per-game bettor. The requirements are:
- Bet on National League road teams.
- That team is averaging 6.85 or more runs per game over their last seven games.
- The game is an inter-league matchup.
- The host is batting .230 or lower spanning their previous seven games.
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Best Bet for Guardians vs. Brewers
A monster matchup for each team as the Brewers fight to earn one of the three Wild Card berths and the Guardians look to win the American League Central. This is the third and final game these two teams will square off in as the Brewers look to sweep the Guardians. Over the past five seasons, the Brewers have gone 8-3, averaging a +103-underdog bet, resulting in a 42 percent ROI when facing the Guardians.
A Few Trends & Angles Supporting the Brewers
Brewers manager Pat Murphy is 24-7 averaging a –112 favorite resulting in a 50 percent ROI when:
- Playing in the second game or later of the series.
- Coming off a game in which the opponent hit no more than two home runs.
- His previous starter threw more than 30 pitches that were called balls.
Murphy is 9-0 for a 96 percent ROI in games played in August and his starter is coming off a start in which the defense turned zero double plays.
Murphy is 22-7 (76 percent) resulting in a 47 percent ROI in games with a total of 8.5 or fewer runs and they did not score first in their previous game.
The MLB Betting Algorithm for Guardians vs. Brewers
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 43-29 (60 percent) record resulting in a 24 percent ROI and a $16,590 profit for the $1,000-per-game bettor and a $829.50 profit for the $50.00 bettor. The requirements are:
- Bet the under priced between 8.0 and 10.0 runs.
- The home team is priced between a -125 favorite and a +125 underdog.
- The home team is coming off a three-game same-series sweep of the current opponent.
- Both teams have winning records.
- The game occurs after the All-Star Break.
Little League Classic Best Bet
Tiger's manager A.J. Hinch is 15-1-1 for 94 percent ROI on unders in games played in August and the foe is from the Eastern time zone.
I like the Detroit Tigers and the New York Yankees to play under the posted total of 7.5 runs in tonight's Little League Classic in Williamsport, PA.
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Rays Moneyline (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Brewers Moneyline (-115 on BetRivers)
- Brewers-Guardians Under 8.5 Runs (+103 BetRivers)
- Tigers-Yankees Under 7.5 Runs
