MLB Draft Preview, Betting Odds, and Expert Picks

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

2024 MLB Draft: Best MLB Draft Bets and Preview

While the College Baseball season wrapped up a few weeks ago, there's still one more detail to tidy up, and that would be the MLB Draft. You know how much I love covering the sport all season for you guys, but one of the biggest joys I have is bringing all that film-watching and analysis together for this annual event. There's only so much you can do with predicting since what an MLB team does is completely out of your hands, but there are some things you can get a pretty good idea on. Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 MLB Draft.

1. Don't let the media narratives fool you into thinking this a weaker draft class from last season. The truth is there isn't a slam dunk 1.1 pick. There may not be a Paul Skenes or even a Wyatt Langford, but it's a talent pool that has a ton of fire power and positional versatility. There are a lot of studs - at least at the college level - that won't go in the first round or even the second. Ultimately, the round doesn't mean a thing a lot of the times because players emerge from all different places that end up producing. The biggest thing is the money.
2. The MLB Draft doesn't always go by talent alone. The financial ramifications are one of the biggest factors, unlike the NFL or NBA. There's a thing called slot-value, which means a certain pick in the draft has its own dollar value and some teams can prefer to select a player that is willing to take less money instead of a better guy. Organizations need to have enough coin to be able to fill out their entire draft, which can make things interesting.
3. Smoke screens. No, not like the NFL. We often see teams being tight-lipped about which direction they are heading in, especially at top of the first round. Sometimes there are stories being pushed about a team gravitating towards a certain player that ends up being incorrect come selection time. In 2023, both high schoolers, Max Clark and Walker Jenkins, were gaining 1.1 steam (likely because they would take less money than the college stars). At one point Wyatt Langford was the favorite to go to the Pirates. Obviously, Skenes was the pick. The odds were jumping around for the last few days leading up to Draft Day. Don't always believe everything you read or hear about. This year, the buzz is largely regarding Oregon State 2B Travis Bazzana going to the Cleveland Guardians first overall.

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MLB DRAFT BETS

MLB Draft 1st Pick Odds

This is a tough situation to try and read. There are legitimately five players that have a real chance to hear their name called first on Sunday night. Coming into the season, West Virginia's SS, JJ Wetherholt, was almost universally mocked as the top pick. And why not? The kid led the country with a .449 batting average, accompanied by 16 taters and 36 bags. JJW made the switch from second base to shortstop, so things were really looking up. However, he only played 36 games this season but still managed a .331 average with eight dingers. 

As the sports world tends to do, they allow recency bias to supersede logic and have poked holes through his legitimacy. Regardless, he's the second favorite at just about every book (+170 on DraftKings, +250 on FanDuel). I've watched a lot of him over the last few years and still think he's got a real case.

Since the middle of March, Travis Bazzana has garnered most of the attention. So many of the mocks throughout the season had the Australian as the choice, and it's only gotten louder over the last two months.

 Personally, I think it would be an asinine decision for what I would argue is MAYBE the seventh most talented player in this draft. Taking a SECOND BASEMAN from the PAC 12 when there are legit titans in this draft is just mind-boggling. Sure, the numbers were off the charts in Bazzana's breakout year as a junior. A .407 average, 28 homers,1.479 OPS, and 76 BB/37 K ratio is fantastic. Defensively, he's solid at his position. I'm not hating on the guy, I'm just giving my honest opinion.

 He did a lot of stat padding against a bad conference, and couldn't hack it in the small sample size he played against the SEC. Hagen Smith mowed him down three times in late February, and he only managed a 1-7 Super Regional against Kentucky in two games. He may fit the mold of how the Guardians build their offensive roster, but there are better options. I believe Bazzana profiles as a very good/All-Star level pro with a .310 average and 25/25 ceiling. Very good, but not elite. A lot of lazy "analysts" continue to regurgitate the same stuff, but I suspect some of them seldom watch the game. Nonetheless, he's favored at every book (-150 on DK, -210 on FD). 

Either Charlie Condon or Jac Caglianone would be the right call if Cleveland is interested in going offense. Two titans who have high floors and to-the-moon ceilings. Condon won the Golden Spikes this year while setting a new single-season HR record in the BBCOR ERA with 37, while also leading the country with a .433 average. Not to mention, the kid also plays FIVE positions on defense at 6'6". With immense power and hitting ability to all fields, Condon is hard to pass on. Currently, he's the third favorite to go 1.1 (+400 on DK, +500 on BetMGM +850 on FD). Notice how important it is to shop around. Especially in this market where anything can happen, it's hard not to take a star with big odds.

Cags, my Italian prince from Tampa, is the best player in the country. The Florida superstar hit 35 tanks this season after crushing 33 in 2023. The biggest power bat in the class, Jac Jack also hits for some serious average. His "measly" .323 BA last season jumped to a comical .419 this year. The funniest part is he only struck out 26 times! Even if his two-player status doesn't pan out on the mound, he's a gold-glove caliber first baseman. 

If the lefty/lefty does work out as a pitcher, we're talking about the next Shohei Ohtani. Cags can touch 100 MPH with his heater, accompanied by a good slider. His career 4.55 ERA and 170 K/105 BB in 148.1 IP clearly show there are improvements and adjustments he has to make to succeed at the next level, but without it, he's still the rightful choice for top pick. The fourth favorite has been a push-pull shifter (+1300 on DK, +2400 on FD). 

My ace in the hole is the last candidate who has a chance. Chase Burns made monstrous leaps from his time at Tennessee to Wake Forest. In 100 innings this year, Burns racked up a salivating 191 strikeouts (led the country) with only 30 free passes. The 2.70 ERA wasn't too shabby either. Of course the one bugaboo like most power pitchers is the long ball, where he allowed 14 of them. If you followed me long enough, you'll know that last July I said he has a higher MLB ceiling than Paul Skenes. Yes, you read that right.

Burns is so much more polished than he was in 2023, but still has more room to improve. His maybe 6'3" 210 lb frame has a lot of room to fill out. We're talking about a guy who consistently hits 100-101 on the heater with a 102 MPH top out and the second best slider in all of baseball behind only Dylan Cease. Not only is he the top arm in the class, but he has one of the most talented arsenals of any pitching prospect in the last two decades. Because Cleveland is an organization known for home-growing pitchers into Cy Young winners, Burns makes sense here. They've never had the opportunity to take somebody this talented, and it's a franchise that has selected 15 first-round pitchers since 2000. I gave out this play at 100/1 on FD on July 4th. Now down to +3500 on DK and +2400 on FD, Burns still has some good odds to take a stab.

MLB Draft 1st Overall Pick Best Bets (as of 7/4/24): 

• Condon 10/1
• Cags 16/1
• Burns 100/1 0.5u

Those three are the best options and I would still play them at what their current offer is.

MLB Draft Props

Some of the odds and numbers have changed from where I gave them out, but I'm still going to give you everything here.

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MLB Draft Positions Bets

Billy Amick O30.5 (-120) - currently 33.5 (O: -120/U: -110)

The stud 3B for the National Champion Volunteers was a huge addition from Clemson that helped UT get over the hump. His .306 average and 23 tanks shows his offensive prowess, but the lineup and ball park he was in definitely helped. The strikeouts are an issue (53 this year) though. While Amick is talented, I think there are 30 other players I would take ahead of him. The current number of 33.5 is a tad low in my opinion. I can see him slide into the late 30's. For comparison, Miami's standout 3B, Yohandy Morales last season was a player I had mocked as a potential top 15 pick, and he slid to 40 despite batting .408 with 20 tanks on a bad team.

Cam Smith U18.5 (-120) - currently 16.5 (-115 both ways)

This was an early read for me. Forgetting all the mocks for a second, Cam Smith was one of the best overall hitters in the nation this season batting .387 with 16 bombs. His 104 hits was third most in the entire country. He's a player that has made a lot of strides the last two seasons and seems to only be getting better. The mocks had him as low as 11 and 12, but common sense tells me he's a top 15 pick. The two-spot drop was within the last 24 hours after so much steam came in on the U18.5. I still think taking the U16.5 is a solid bet.

Jurrangelo Cijntje O20.5 (-105) - currently 20.5 (O: -130/U: +100)

The spot didn't move, but the steam on 20.5 did tick towards the over. The switch-pitcher from Mississippi State is a big incubator guy for me. You probably made some money with me when I gave out a few plays on him this season. I've followed him his entire college career and when I say his leap from 2023 to 2024 was arguably the best from any player in the nation, believe it. For a guy that throws 95 as a lefty and 99 as a righty, he's a lot more than a novelty. He has a legit chance to be a very good #2 starter one day. After going primarily as an RHP in the second half of the season, there's a potential he may almost completely abandon the LHP side. The strikeouts are there (113), but the command needs to be cleaned up (30 walks). While nobody really talked about him until ESPN and MLB simultaneously ran an article about him in mid-April (only 14 months late), which gave him popularity, the first-round buzz started coming in early May. Nonetheless, I think mid-to-late 20's is the more fitting spot. 

Nick Kurtz U11.5 (-105) - currently 11.5 (U: -250: O: +200)

The fact that DK gave out a porous line for one of the game's top hitters and fielders is embarrassing, but it gave us a good chance to take advantage. Clearly, the steam is so aggressive it's no longer valuable. Nicky Nukes has every bit of a chance to be a top 5 pick though. If you want to lay the vig, then who am I to stop you? If an MLB lets a guy with this talent slide past 11, they may be out of a job in a few years.

Chase Burns U3.5 -115 - currently 3.5 (O: -125/U: -105)

The strange thing is Burns 3.5 to the under was about -165 a week ago, but the over took some serious heat to an even -115 each way. Now the over is actually the favorite. I did an extensive explanation on him already, but a lot of mocks had Colorado as the landing spot at #3. Personally, it would be awesome to see him reunite with his former superstar Tennessee teammate, Chase Dollander, to form one of the best 1-2 punches for the next decade. While he could end up sliding a bit, I still like the under.

Trey Yesavage U12.5 +140 - currently 12.5 (O: -200/U: +160)

Same spot, but the line moved. Despite me not getting the best of the number, I still really like the under. Although Burns and Hagen Smith were the best two pitchers in 2024, Yesavage wasn't far behind. As the third best arm, Trey dazzled with a 2.03 ERA and a 145 K/32 BB ratio across 93.1 innings for ECU. His over-the-top delivery has made his dangerous arsenal even more difficult to square up. The heater brushes the high 90's consistently and the splitter, change, slider, curve combo create a lot of swing and misses. It would be utterly ridiculous to see a top arm slide past 12 in a draft where a lot of teams need high end pitching. Take the under.

1st to be Drafted Matchups

Amick (-110) over Dakota Jordan (-120) - currently Amick -140/Jordan +110

Movement here recently too. The 30 dollar difference of the line isn't a biggie for me. While I do love Dakota Jordan, a guy who was pushing towards back half of the first round grade, there's a lot of holes in his game right now despite tons of athleticism and upside. The kid they call "Baby Bo" struck out 84 times this season and unraveled from the SEC Tournament on. While Jordan does hit the cover off the ball in terms of Exit Velo, there needs to be a lot of improvements. Amick is the guy with a safer floor.

Jonathan Santucci (-190) over Ryan Prager (+155) - currently Santucci -225/ Prager +175

Last week, Santucci was -155 to be selected ahead of the Texas A&M ace. I ended up dragging my feet which resulted in me paying a 35 dollar difference. Now, it's ballooned to the moon. Honestly though, I would still pay it. Duke's Santucci is one of the top LHP on the board. He has a devastating fastball slider combo that generates a ton of swing and miss. Though he still has to iron out the inefficiencies and command problems, a team will gravitate toward a southpaw that ramps it up to 98-99 MPH. Early in the season, Tucci had a mid-1st round grade. Prager though, tops out at about 91. There's not much of a ceiling as a high end MLB starter. Plus he has the option to return to TAMU as a redshirt Junior to help the Aggies retooling for another title run.

Cijntje (-105) over Brody Brecht (-135) - currently Cijntje -165/Brecht +130

Brecht at one point was -140 to be selected ahead of the switch-pitcher, but the odds have done a flip. No pitcher in the draft has a better arm than Iowa's Brecht who routinely hits triple digits, and was clocked at 104 MPH last season. While he made massive strides this season in continuing his development, Brody has command issues. 110 walks in the last two seasons (155.1 IP) is a glaring problem. Because of his arm talent, a team will want to take on the project of polishing him up. The fact is though that Jurrangelo displayed a quantum leap in the SEC and projects as a higher floor. I do think both of these arms slide in the draft off their projected spots, but I would still lay it with Cijntje.

Vance Honeycutt (+110) over Carson Benge (-140) - currently Benge -210/Honeycutt +165

Talk about a bad number on my part. Pre-2023 season, I mocked Honeycutt as the #2 overall pick for the 2024 draft behind Cags. If you asked me to name the true five-tool player of this draft, it's the superstar CF from UNC hands down. In addition to being the best fielder in the entire country, he's a capable 40/40 guy in the MLB. Falling two homers and two steals shy of a 30/30 season this year, Honeycutt showed what he can do. His .318 average wasn't too bad either. The obvious issue with him is the strikeouts. 83 this season, 224 in his career across 176 games. I truly believe he's the most talented player in this draft, and if not for the swing-and-miss he would be going 1.1. He's the next-generation Trea Turner with a splash of Julio Rodriguez. 

Benge is a good player that also spent all season mocked as a first-rounder. Strong hit tool with some power, batting .339 with 25 homers in his two seasons at OK State. He also slotted in as the Pokes Sunday guy on the mound with a 3.16 ERA and 44 K's in 37 innings. I think Benge is a solid player, but he doesn't have the upside that Honeycutt does. The aggressive movement is surprising, but if given the talent and price the UNC product is where I would go.

Luke Holman (-130) over Gage Jump (+100) - currently the same

The market originally favored Jump over Holman at basically the same odds. Jump was amazing down the stretch for LSU. His last three starts of the season were all quality starts where he allowed just five earned over 20.1 innings with 24 K's to just three walks. I think both of them are going to be selected within a few picks of each other.

Holman was great all season with his 2.75 ERA and 127 K/33 BB. His fastball-slider combo is his bread and butter. The reason I like him over Jump is simply because I think he's the safer pick. A workhorse that is going to give you innings and a chance to win almost every time out is a tough thing to come by.

Burns (-200) over Hagen Smith (+150) - currently Burns -240/Smith +190

The two top pitchers in 2024. While Hagen was the best, it's Burns who has the higher MLB ceiling. Disregard every mock draft that has Burns going before Smith, and just look at the film. Smith being a lefty that throws 99-100 with one of the filthiest sliders in the game is a gigantic commodity. The thing that concerns me is the tertiary pitches not being as involved. The changeup is the pitch that needs to improved and thrown more frequently. Whereas Burns has a solid change and curve in his back pocket. Laying -240 is a lot, but if you can stomach it then I think you should still do it. It would be a shocker if Burns isn't the first pitcher off the board.

The draft provides a lot of betting opportunities for us. It's definitely overlooked, but I'm happy we're able to have a chance to make some money. I appreciate everybody following along this season. It was an absolute pleasure to be able to do this throughout the year. Best of luck and I'll see you for the rest of the MLB season and NFL!!