This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We've cruised past the point where every team has played 100 games, and July is almost over. But there's still one final Sunday this month with eight games on the DFS docket and the first ones beginning at 1:35 p.m. EDT. And now, my DFS lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Jesus Luzardo, MIA vs. DET ($11,000): If Sandy Alcantara had been able to replicate his Cy Young form, the Marlins would be quietly in the running for one of the best rotation duos. Luzardo isn't doing anything he didn't do last year, as his 3.21 FIP and 10.77 strikeouts per nine innings are in line with his 2022 numbers. He's already pitched 20.0 innings more than last year and has been on fire with a 1.48 ERA over his last seven starts. he's also been scorching. And on Sunday, Luzardo gets a Tigers team ranking 28th in runs scored.
Justin Verlander, NYM vs. WAS ($9,400): It hasn't been Verlander's year, but maybe he was just getting acclimated after his injury paired with changing teams since he's posted a 1.46 ERA across six outings. And at home this season, that mark sits at 2.34. The Nationals sit bottom-10 in offense, so Verlander should be able to handle them and extend his solid run.
Top Targets
As we've grown accustomed to, Jose Ramirez ($6,100) is the bat holding the Guardians' lineup together. While the switch-hitter has been a bit worse against lefties this year, his OPS against righties is .927 and that's similar to the .918 from last season. Michael Kopech is a sterling example of what happens when you're an MLB pitcher with a hard fastball but not much else. He doesn't allow a lot of contact, yet he carries a 6.08 ERA largely due to allowing 2.03 homers per nine innings. When you get ahold of a Kopech pitch, there's a decent chance it's leaving the park.
It's been a down season for J.T. Realmuto ($4,800), but he's a catcher with 12 homers and 12 stolen bases - and that's still valuable for DFS players. And for whatever reason, he's recorded a .542 home OPS with a .941 on the road. In his age-43 season, lefty Rich Hill still largely avoids allowing homers, but that's about all he avoids based on a 4.82 ERA and 24.6 line-drive percentage with righties hitting .275 against.
Bargain Bats
It's too late for Carlos Correa ($4,500) to salvage his season, but maybe he can deliver in DFS Sunday. Since 2021, he's produced an .856 OPS versus lefties – better times are baked into that admittedly – and a .725 on the road, which is alarmingly better than his home output. Even with their pitching injuries, the Rays likely don't miss Ryan Yarbrough. He's posted a 6.64 ERA at home for the Royals while only striking out 4.91 batters per nine innings.
When you look at home/road splits of the Mets' pitchers and hitters, it paints a portrait of a home stadium that isn't kind to batters - and particularly power. That being said, Brett Baty ($2,600) is an anomaly with a .791 home OPS at home compared to .495 on the road. If you put up a .495 anywhere, it raises alarms regarding your hitting profile, but I'd still take the lefty against Trevor Williams. A Met last season, he's registered a 5.44 FIP starting for the Nationals while also letting lefties go .295 against the last couple seasons.
Stacks to Consider
Atlanta vs. Brewers (Colin Rea): Matt Olson ($6,400), Michael Harris ($4,300), Eddie Rosario ($3,900)
In his first season starting regularly in MLB since 2016, Rea has eaten innings and hasn't looked incapable of pitching at this level, which for the Brewers has been enough for him to operate as their fifth starter. But you can also look at him and see someone with a 4.75 FIP who spent the bulk of the previous two years pitching in Japan. Rea has kept his fellow righties in check, though lefties have batted .259 against and hit 10 homers, double the number he's allowed to righties in fewer plate appearances. And that's why I've selected a three-lefty stack.
Olson has slugged over .600 against righties and at home. This is a batter who slugged .511 in his time with Oakland, spending half his games in that ballpark. Harris seemed like an average, power, and speed player as a rookie, but it now appears he may settle into the first and third ones with a bit of pop as he's gone .275 with 13 stolen bases and nine homers to go with an .843 home OPS. Rosario walks as seldom as any hitter, yet offers power having slugged .474 with 16 home runs in 90 games. His .783 OPS in Atlanta may not wow you, but his lack of walks has him with a sub-.300 OBP. The key is Rosario pairs that with a .494 slugging percentage.
Rays at Astros (Brandon Bielak): Wander Franco ($5,800), Josh Lowe ($4,500), Luke Raley ($4,200)
Looking for a second stack, I found Bielak to be a better target than I anticipated. Getting his first real taste as an MLB starter, he's managed a 3.62 ERA along with a 5.40 FIP. In fact, Bielak's career FIP is 5.09. The .282 average he's allowed to lefties isn't entirely in tune with his career performance - though not implausible - yet his .253 average against righties certainly is. In the end, I went with two lefties and a hitter who steps up to both sides of the plate.
Franco is the switch-hitter who enjoyed a scorching start but has regressed enough where we're now collectively back to wondering: "Will he ever live up to his vaunted prospect status?" That being said, he's still produced 12 homers, five triples, and 29 stolen bases while being caught 10 times. Franco has been better against lefties during his career, but he's hit .259 versus righties and it's easier to steal on them. It would be nice if Lowe walked more, especially given his 22 swipes, though his .268 average and 13 homers somewhat balance that out. His poor performance against lefties in limited action dampens his numbers a bit, but he's recorded an .804 OPS versus righties and an .857 on the road. Raley is enjoying a surprise breakthrough campaign in his age-28 season, but the numbers are there having slashed .269/.358/.538 with 15 homers, 11 stolen bases and a .961 road OPS.
