This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-2, -0.62 RWBucks
Season: 5-2, +3.05 RWBucks
The big sports story of the day was the dream of an undefeated season dying at the hands of a team from Texas.
Also, Gonzaga lost to Baylor.
Here, we took our first losses of the season, first on the Rangers, then on the under in Oakland. Mercifully, both were pretty much done by the top of the third. I would much rather just be wrong than feel like I was on the right side of a bet that lost. Your mileage may vary.
One of the nice things about writing about your plays is that you're locked in early in the day. It prevents the kind of tilting catch-up wagers that can kill your bankroll. Money management is a real thing, and I don't mind telling you it hasn't been a strength of mine in the past. An unwillingness to accept small losses -- I used to always want to finish a day in the black -- would snowball into larger ones as I pressed west coast action even if the numbers and the analysis didn't warrant it.
It's funny, because I have a great example right in front of me of how not to do that. My best friend dabbles in this, has for a long time, and he's the most disciplined person I know. He never overbets his bankroll, never chases losses, never goes on tilt. He gets frustrated, sure, but he separates the emotions from the actions. If you're a casual bettor, most likely playing with "fun money" that has a limit, this kind of discipline is crucial. You want to win, sure, but you want to stay in action, to be smart, to not be a reload king.
It's a lesson I'm trying to learn, and at the same time, a lesson I want to impart here. Don't let the results alter your process, alter your decisions. You're going to have bad beats, bad days, bad weeks, and if you make them worse by pressing your action, well, this way lies madness.
I'm averaging 2.3 bets per column and slightly less than a unit per bet. I'm starting slowly because this of all seasons is plagued by uncertainty. This column won't shy away from spraying the board when it's warranted, or pressing up units when the advantage is there. Today, however, is not one of those days.
7 p.m. Mets/Phillies over 9 (-109). The Mets were held to three runs last night by the Phillies' Matt Moore and a host of relievers. There won't be too many nights like that, especially when a right-handed starter -- the Phillies go with Chase Anderson -- is on the mound. The Mets' lineup against righties is the best in baseball, with seven above-average hitters. They get on base and they hit for power.
The flip side of this is the defensive cost, which is considerable. Jacob deGrom solves this problem by striking everyone out. Marcus Stroman is a bit more exposed to the elements. Both teams are likely to get into the bullpens in the middle innings here as well, in a good park for hitters. 1.5 RWBucks
I'm not ready to start recommending alternate lines, but the Mets' team total of 4.5 is interesting.
7 p.m. Rays/Red Sox under 9 (-107). Travis Sawchik of The Score had a great thread this morning about Tyler Glasnow and his new slider. It could elevate Glasnow from good to great, and projects as quite a weapon against a heavily right-handed Sox lineup. This should be a game in which Glasnow hands the ball off to the Pete Fairbanks/Diego Castillo tranche of a suddenly thinning bullpen.
Why not take the Rays? With both these bets today, there's some argument for taking a side, and perhaps even the side and total. It's close for me, but this is not a game I see getting to 6-5 or something, and a close Rays loss is in play. The under is the better bet here, especially at 9. 1 RWBuck
