This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous day: 1-2, -1.16 RWBucks
Season: 72-92-4, -28.97 RWBucks
You would think the worst loss in a given series would have to be the the one where you had the over, a bad pitcher on the mound, and the bad pitcher left due to illness and the teams went 0-for-14 with runners in scoring position. So it's kind of impressive that I managed to find a worse one with that Yankees pick Wednesday.
We'd normally do stats on the first (ish) of the month, but it's a holiday Friday and the All-Star break is just around the corner, so let's just run picks today and do math next week. Big card tonight -- it's Friday, it's summer, it's a holiday weekend. Go crazy (ish).
6 p.m. Phillies (Wheeler) first five innings -139 over Padres (Paddack).
In a world without Jacob deGrom, we'd be paying a lot more attention to a number of NL starters having great seasons. deGrom's former teammate, Zach Wheeler, has a 2.20 ERA and 2.39 FIP in 16 starts. The Padres had a late night in a rain-delayed loss and catch an slightly earlier start. There's a big gap in SP quality here we can leverage with the F5 pick. 1.5 RWBucks.
7 p.m. Dodgers (Urias) -122 over Nationals (Scherzer).
This makes the card because Trea Turner is still supposed to be out another day with his finger issue, reducing the Nationals to 2 1/2 credible hitters. Julio Urias has a 107/15 K/BB once you strip out the intentional passes, one of the best marks in the game. He struck out 12 of the 22 Cubs he faced last time out, a sign that his rough patch -- 6.31 ERA in five starts -- is over. 1.5 RWBucks.
7 p.m. Rays (Patino)/Blue Jays (Manoah) over 10 (-106).
Betting Sahlen Field again, which we might do even if this was peak David Price locking horns with peak Roy Halladay. Luis Patino, back up from the minors, likely won't work too deeply into this game; his long outings in the majors are 82 pitches and four innings, in separate games. This bet lives or dies on the Rays working Alek Manoah and getting past him into the Jays' bullpen. 1 RWBuck.
8 p.m. Twins (Happ)/Royals (Singer) first five innings over 5.5 (-108).
Two bad starters, two quietly bad defenses, in a sneaky good hitters' park. This is probably going to end up with the teams landing 2-2 after going 1-14 with runners in scoring position in five innings, but it's worth the bet. 1 RWBuck.
9:40 p.m. Diamondbacks (Gallen) +125 over Giants (Wood).
The Diamondbacks just aren't as bad as their record is. They're not a dumping team, just one that has had more than its share of injuries. Zac Gallen is an ace, though his elbow issues call into question how much longer he'll be one. While he's taking regular turns, though, he provides a lot of value at plus money. Fun note: The Diamondbacks, who won last night, have not won consecutive games since May 10 and 11. 1.5 RWBucks.
10 p.m. Rangers (Gibson)/Mariners (Gilbert) under 8 (-112).
OK, consider me in on Kyle Gibson, the best pitcher in the AL through three months. He has 12 quality starts in his last 14 outings, and the other two were perfectly good starts in which he went 5 1/3 innings. Gibson's new cutter is the story, but it actually hasn't been a big part of his season; he throws about a dozen a game and he doesn't get great results on it. No, the key for Gibson this year has been avoiding hard contact and barrels. He'll take that lesson to a Mariners team that's somehow over .500, mostly due to having the horseshoe. They're also the worst-hitting team in baseball in their home park, and the only MLB team with a sub-.300 OBP at home. 1.5 RWBucks.
