This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Tonight: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks NLDS Game 3, Oct. 11
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Last article: 2-1 (+1.03 RW Bucks)
2023 regular-season record: 35-41-1 (+10.19 RW Bucks)
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In a postseason that's already brought about multiple surprising outcomes, we're on the verge of perhaps the most shocking yet. The Diamondbacks took the first two games of the NLDS at Dodger Stadium and are now on the precipice of what would be a completely unforeseen sweep of a team many have pegged to go all the way.
We'll break down four bets to consider for tonight's potential elimination game.
Los Angeles Dodgers 
at Arizona Diamondbacks 
Best Bets
The Dodgers scored a whopping 906 runs during the regular season – an average of 5.6 per game – yet managed to cobble together a measly four in two home games to open the series. L.A. recorded a modest 10 hits and left 13 men on base in that pair of contests, yet there are several reasons to believe in them ascending toward their impressive mean Wednesday.
One is naturally the stakes at play. While the old adage of anything being possible in a short playoff series, a sweep by Arizona where the Dodgers don't come close to translating the ample cumulative talent in their lineup into at least one offensive breakout is almost inconceivable. Additionally, the chances of another quiet night in a matchup against an inconsistent right-hander they've already tormented on multiple occasions, Brandon Pfaadt, is even more remote.
Pfaadt went 0-2 with a 9.35 ERA across 8.2 innings in two starts versus the Dodgers during his rookie 2023 campaign. The righty allowed Los Angeles hitters to post a cumulative .381 average and 1.149 OPS, along with eight extra-base hits and 12 RBI, in a 46-batter sample. The Dodgers also finished the regular season with a .287 average, .822 OPS, .353 wOBA and 14.2 wRAA against righties on the road in the last month of play.
However, the DBacks, who are already swinging hot bats in the series, have an appealing matchup in their own right. Dodgers starter Lance Lynn has found keeping the ball in the park a virtual impossibility, surrendering a total of 44 homers in 183.2 innings this season with the White Sox and Los Angeles. Lynn didn't face the Diamondbacks during the season, but he wrapped up the campaign giving up 12 homers over his last seven starts, including at least one in each of those outings.
Therefore, expecting some runs early in this game – especially considering how overdue the Dodgers are – isn't a bad way to go, and the odds for that bet indicate sportsbooks are thinking along those same lines. The same applies for banking on at least three combined homers from these two teams, considering the starting pitcher matchup in particular.
With respect to the Freddie Freeman prop listed below, the lefty-swinging slugger owns a .667 average with two doubles, a homer and three RBI in six career plate appearances against Pfaadt, and the rookie righty yielded a .305 average and .375 wOBA to left-handed hitters at home this season. Los Angeles is also projected for a robust 5.3 runs.
And last but certainly not least, I'm on a Dodgers win at a great price for a bit more units than usual, with my belief that their abundant talent rises to the occasion.
MLB Focus Bets for Dodgers at Diamondbacks:
- Dodgers moneyline (-126 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 3 RW Bucks
- Over 2.5 runs - 1st 3 innings (-150 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Over 2.5 total home runs (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Freddie Freeman Over 2.5 Runs + Hits + RBI (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
