This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, September 4
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 10-10 (-1.34 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season Props Betting Record: 29-29 (+2.16 RW Bucks)
I'm looking to keep up a recent strong run by focusing on what I see is a big starting pitching mismatch in the National League tonight, honing in on five total game and prop bets for the Wrigley Field clash between the Pirates and Cubs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago Cubs Best Bets
The Pirates are playing out the string on another losing season, one where they could well be on track to remain stuck in neutral concerning year-over-year progress. After a 76-86 mark a year ago, the Buccos are 65-73 entering Wednesday's tough matchup against star rookie southpaw Shota Imanaga.
Imanaga is about the last pitcher Pittsburgh would want to see at this point, considering the Pirates have a massive MLB-high 35.3 percent strikeout rate against left-handed pitching on the road since the All-Star break. They also carry an anemic .286 wOBA and -3.8 wRAA in that split, along with a tiny 3.7 percent walk rate. Meanwhile, Imanaga boasts a solid 9.1 K/9 and minuscule 1.4 BB/9 for the season, but even more impressive 10.4 and 0.8 figures in those respective categories across 76 home frames.
What's more, the Pirates have already fallen victim to Imanaga once in his first MLB season, getting shut out over seven innings while going down on strikes seven times back on May 18 at Wrigley. Pittsburgh is also a middling 33-37 straight up on the road while averaging the eighth-fewest runs per road game (4.14) in all of baseball, including the sixth fewest (2.04) in the first five innings when traveling.
There's also optimism to be found for Chicago's chances of prevailing and being ahead by at least a run after five innings in their starting pitcher opponent, as the Pirates bring Domingo German back into the rotation. After blanking the Rangers for six innings in a start on Aug. 21, the veteran right-hander worked in long relief the last two times out and pitched to a 15.88 ERA across 5.2 innings. The primary culprits behind that crooked number just happen to be the Cubs, who lit German up for eight earned runs on six hits and four walks over 2.2 innings at PNC Park on Aug. 26.
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Seiya Suzuki was one of the hitters that gave German trouble that day with a pair of singles off him as part of a four-hit day. He checks into Wednesday with a .365 wOBA and 40 extra-base hits against righties this season, along with a sizzling .370 batting average and 1.108 OPS overall across his last 13 games. Suzuki has seven multi-hit tallies in that latter span to push his total bases to 212 across 112 contests, and I like the idea of rolling with an over on his total bases prop as well.
Ultimately, our bets for this game all flow together. A straight Moneyline bet on the Cubbies is prohibitive due to a price that's as high as -230 at one sportsbook, but combining it with Imanaga's very achievable strikeout prop gives us a great price. I also like that Imanaga bet as a solo prop at plus-money, and the same applies to a wager on him picking up a victory.
MLB Best Bets for Pirates vs. Cubs
- Same-Game Parlay: Cubs Moneyline and Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+183 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Cubs -0.5- F5 (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Shota Imanaga to Record a Win (+135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Shota Imanaga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+116 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Seiya Suzuki Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
