This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Tonight: MLB Bets and Props for Wednesday, July 24
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2024 Regular Season Betting Record: 3-6 (-3.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular Season Props Betting Record: 24-21 (+3.05 RW Bucks)
We have a typical split slate Wednesday, and I'm honing in on a pair of evening games where I see the potential for a pair of the AL's more potent offenses to take advantage of vulnerable pitching staffs.
Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins Best Bets
The pitching matchup is an intriguing one for this mid-week interleague battle, as the Orioles will be rolling out the promising Chayce McDermott for his big-league debut. The flamethrowing right-hander brings no shortage of swing-and-miss upside, having recorded at least an 11.3 K/9 in every single minor-league stop during a meteoric rise through the organizational ranks that began in 2021.
The rookie draws an enticing matchup for his debut despite it coming on the road. The Marlins have an NL-low .277 wOBA and 76 wRC+ against righties at home since June 1, along with an MLB-worst -18.7 wRAA in that span. They've also struck out at a 24.5 percent clip in that sample, a figure that portends McDermott could be missing plenty of bats in his first go-around versus big-league hitters if he has his command, which admittedly has been a frequent issue for him in the minors, harnessed.
The Orioles should be in good position to offer plenty of run support, considering Baltimore's typically high-powered offense and the matchup against the talented but inconsistent Edward Cabrera. The right-hander has proven consistently hittable over his eight starts this season, pitching to a 7.36 ERA, 1.67 WHIP and 2.5 HR/9 across 33 innings. Then, Baltimore checks in with an MLB-high .380 wOBA, .890 OPS and 149 wRC+ on the road against righties since June 1.
Given the factors cited, I'm going to keep it simple. We're getting a fairly solid moneyline price on the Orioles, which isn't always the case, likely due to the uncertainty of a rookie making his first big-league start. I'll roll with a straight-up Baltimore win and a manageable strikeout prop for McDermott at plus money.
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MLB Picks for Orioles vs Marlins
- Orioles moneyline (-134 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Chayce McDermott Over 4.5 strikeouts thrown (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Best Bets
The Rangers haven't come anywhere close to the Orioles in terms of replicating their overall 2023 success, but there's no questioning the fact Texas' lineup has the ability to break out on any given night. I like the chances of it happening Wednesday against the lowly White Sox and the starting pitching matchup Bruce Bochy's squad draws against Chris Flexen and eventually, Chicago's bullpen.
Flexen enters with a 2-9 record, 5.22 ERA and 1.40 WHIP across 21 appearances (19 starts). The veteran right-hander now has a 4-17 mark across 50 appearances (35 starts) over the last two seasons, an extremely futile mark he complements with a 6.04 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Flexen has also had his share of troubles against current Rangers bats, having allowed a collective .284 average to them in 95 career encounters.
Flexen has had plenty of trouble keeping the ball in the park on the road this season – he's pitched to a 1.7 HR/9 across 41.2 away frames – and he's now tasked with taming a Rangers squad that has a solid .726 OPS against righties at home in July. The White Sox bullpen is also scuffling, having pitched to an AL-high 6.23 ERA, MLB-high .287 BAA and .348 wOBA during the current month.
Given the way the matchups line up, I'm backing the idea of a solid night for the Rangers' offense and the red-hot Marcus Semien, who owns a .333 average over 16 career plate appearances against Flexen, being a part of the fun for Texas.
Best Bets for White Sox vs Rangers
- F5- Rangers Over 2.5 runs (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Orioles moneyline (-134 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Chayce McDermott Over 4.5 strikeouts thrown (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- F5- Rangers Over 2.5 runs (-135 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
