This article is part of our MLB Best Ball series.
We're just under a week away from Opening Day, and we're entering the biggest draft weekend of the fantasy baseball season. While the focus may be on home leagues and other redraft leagues, there is still plenty of availability in "The Dinger," Underdog's biggest tournament offering for the MLB season.
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One way to differentiate in large-field tournaments is to draft players who are not regularly selected in drafts. With a top-heavy payout structure in place, it pays dividends to have exposure to players that no one else — or very few other people — will roster. Having unique players will create the opportunity to gain a lot of ground in the standings, and it could pay off in a big way if those unique players go off during the fantasy playoffs.
With that in mind, players with an ADP of 240 or later are the focus of this article. We'll highlight strong options at pitcher, infielder and outfielder.
One quick observation is that the outfield has very few deep options, so waiting on pitching or infield is an easier way to build a team given the structure of the player pool.
Pitchers
Matz has a significant injury history, though he's thrown at least 150 innings in three of the last four full seasons. More interesting is the apparent skills growth he showed in 2022, his first season in St. Louis. His swinging strike rate jumped to a career-best 12.1 percent and his strikeout rate followed at 26.1 percent. His role in St. Louis is secure, so if he can stay healthy, he should have the chance to land within the top 60 pitchers in total points. He's currently the 130th pitcher off the board.
Fantasy managers are likely most familiar with Lugo from speculating on saves in past seasons. However, he signed with the Padres this offseason and is shifting from his role as a high-leverage reliever to the starting rotation with his new club. Historically, his skills haven't been particularly positive when working outside of the bullpen (20.8 K%, 6.3 BB%, 1.4 HR/9 in 194.2 innings as a starter), though he hasn't worked primarily as a starter since 2017. In his latest outing this spring, he worked up to five innings and struck out five. Overall, he's thrown 17.1 frames in the Cactus League with a strong 14:5 K:BB. Even if he's not piling up strikeouts, he should be a good bet for wins given his team context and should contribute some quality starts as well.
Stripling posted a career-best season with Toronto in 2022, finishing with a 3.01 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. That was aided primarily by a dip in home runs allowed, as he served up only 0.9 HR/9 after having allowed over 2.0 HR/9 in each of his last two campaigns. He signed with San Francisco this offseason, giving him the most favorable home park of his career. The team also has a recent track record of getting the most out of its pitching staff. Stripling is a good bet to stick in the rotation all season given the injury history of others in the rotation such as Alex Cobb (knee) and Alex Wood.
Infielders
It wasn't long ago that Candelario was considered a breakout candidate with Detroit. After an abysmal 2022 season, he appears to be locked into the everyday third base job in Washington, with little competition behind him. His shortened 2020 season stands out as an outlier (140 wRC+, .373 wOBA), but he posted a respectable .344 wOBA and 120 wRC+ in 2021. Candelario's good seasons aren't as far in the past as his ADP suggests, he has secure playing time, and he also gets a significant upgrade moving from Comerica Park to Nationals Park.
Stott was a disappointment through the first half of the 2022 season, but he showed substantial improvement over the course of the final months. The results still weren't spectacular (106 wRC+, .323 wOBA), but he makes a lot of contact and has a clear path to playing time after the departure of Jean Segura. Stott isn't likely to launch into superstardom, but his current ADP is puzzling given that the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Keston Hiura and Francisco Alvarez (among others) are being drafted ahead of him.
Segura isn't the most exciting option on this list, but he managed 7.1 fantasy points per game last season. His overall points production was depressed as a result of missing just over two months due to a broken finger, but he continues to have a high-contact approach with a decent number of extra-base hits mixed in. He also escaped a crowded Phillies infield and should be in the Marlins' lineup so long as he remains healthy during the 2023 season. If Segura can maintain his per-game production from 2022, he has a strong chance at over 1,000 fantasy points. That's more than enough to make him relevant.
Outfielders
Benson was traded from the Guardians to the Reds as spring training kicked off, and he's in a much better position to earn a consistent role in 2023. Nick Senzel will begin the season on the injured list, and he also played third base in a spring training game Thursday. That suggests Senzel will play a utility role when he can retake the field, leaving Benson with a clear path to the starting center field job. There isn't much of a big-league sample to work from, but Benson was a well-regarded prospect and now has one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league as his home field.
Marsh's defense is his calling card, and that will be enough to keep him in the lineup on most days. He had similar first and second-half splits as his Philadelphia teammate Stott, but Marsh flashed even more power with an impressive .159 ISO and .331 wOBA after the break. The Philadelphia lineup takes a hit without the presence of Bryce Harper (elbow) and Rhys Hoskins (knee), but it should still put up plenty of runs.
