MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

We've made it through yet another rocky week in the battle over whether baseball will be played in America this year. A week that started commissioner with Rob Manfred saying that there may not be a season after all didn't exactly end with any more certainty. The commissioner met with Tony Clark, the head of the MLBPA, and appeared to claim following that meeting that a deal had been reached, but the union was quick to put an end to that talk.

It appeared that the league and union were finally nearing the endpoint of negotiations and simply haggling over the last few details, like the length of the season, with owners seemingly delaying as long as possible to believably claim that they were "forced" to schedule a very short season due to fears of a second wave of the coronavirus pandemic forcing a premature end to the playoffs.

Of course, the first wave of the pandemic is nowhere over, as we were cruelly reminded Friday, when reports emerged that players on the Blue Jays and Phillies had tested positive for the virus. Later reports suggested that as many as 40 players and staff members across the league had tested positive within the last week. MLB responded by closing all spring training sites for a deep cleaning.

Is that the end of hopes to resume the season? Probably not, as ESPN KBO analyst Daniel Kim noted. KBO teams shut down their spring preparations multiple times after players showed COVID-19 symptoms. Such a process is unfortunately to be expected this year, and if either the owners or the players thought they could resume play without positive tests emerging from time to time, they were fools. No player in the KBO wound up testing positive, but the NPB in Japan saw a pair of players test positive in early June and ended up starting the season a few weeks later anyway.

The problem, unfortunately, is that this country is still firmly mid-pandemic in a way that Taiwan, South Korea and Japan were not once they resumed play. Taiwan was regularly achieving zero new cases per day around the time that the CPBL season began in mid-April. South Korea has had less than 100 new cases per day since the start of April, giving it more than a month in a relatively safe state before they began play in early May. Japan's last day with more than 100 new cases was on May 15, again over a month before the NPB opened June 19.

The United States, meanwhile, had  more than 30,000 new cases Saturday, the most recent day that data was available. It's quite clear that we're nowhere near the position that countries across the Pacific were in when they decided it was safe enough to play baseball. If MLB does indeed resume this year, as the recent run of positive tests reminds us, it will be in the middle of an active pandemic, making it the first major baseball league in the world to do so.

It's possible the latest wave of cases around American sports will lead both sides to decide it's best to sit this season out. It's possible that they'll give the owners cover to cancel the season, as so many of them clearly want to do, under the pretense that they care about player health when in fact they only care about dollars. It's possible it will lead to them cancelling it due legitimately to player health concerns, but that they'll be painted as doing it for selfish reasons

It's also possible that this will be the wakeup call both sides need to settle the far lesser concerns such as schedule length and move on to ironing out the details of the health measures necessary for re-opening mid-pandemic. It's quite difficult to say right now, so all I can say for sure is that I recognize that my own desire to see baseball played in this country is far less important that players' and staff members' lives, so I hope everyone involved in the decision-making process makes a wise decision and follows the advice of health experts.

As you might expect following a week in which the majority of baseball news took the form of either labor battles or coronavirus test results, there has not been a lot of players who've seen their stocks change lately. This week's barometer will feature a small number of MLB players, followed by a World Baseball Barometer to catch up readers on a few players to know from the leagues being played in Asia.

RISERS

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros: Verlander was shut down with a lat strain in early March, which was expected to force him to the injured list to start the regular season. Barely more than a week later, he underwent groin surgery, a procedure that was expected to keep him out for at least six weeks. He correctly predicted that the shutdown would give him well more than enough time to heal, as it's now been over twice that long. He's recently resumed throwing bullpen sessions and should be right around the same place that every other pitcher is once play resumes. There is, of course, some risk involved in a 37-year-old who's already battled two injuries this year, but Verlander's stock should nonetheless rise to close to where it was prior to his injuries.

Aaron Hicks, OF, Yankees: Hicks underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The procedure doesn't carry the same recovery time for hitters as it does for pitchers, but the outfielder was nonetheless expected to miss a fair portion of this season. He's been making good progress during the shutdown, though, and said Saturday that he was 80 percent of the way through his throwing program and was throwing from 160 feet. He expects to be ready if play resumes in July. Hicks certainly doesn't have a track record of health, playing in more than 100 major-league games just twice and never appearing in 140 contests in a season, but in a campaign that might not last much longer than 60 games, his durability concerns should be lessened.

FALLERS

Clint Frazier, OF, Yankees: Good news for Hicks means bad news for Frazier. There was a time this spring where it looked like Frazier was finally in line for a starting role, at least temporarily, with the Yankees. Frazier has shown flashes during parts of three seasons in the big leagues, posting a league-average 100 wRC+ in 429 plate appearances on the back of a .254/.308/.463 slash line, but has never spent a particularly long stretch in the starting lineup. With Hicks' elbow surgery, Giancarlo Stanton's calf strain and Aaron Judge's fractured rib, the path finally appeared clear. With Stanton now fully healthy, Hicks nearly healthy and Judge presumably set to miss far less time than previously expected (if any), Frazier again stuck at the back of a crowded group and is as much of a long shot as he's been the last several years.

Mike Tauchman, OF, Yankees: Just as Hicks' good news hurts Frazier, it also hurts Tauchman. He does seem to be ahead of Frazier on the depth chart, but if Hicks' return would push Brett Gardner to left field. Tauchman could still play a role in right, depending on Aaron Judge's health, though Giancarlo Stanton could also spend time there when Miguel Andujar serves as the designated hitter. Tauchman hit an impressive .277/.361/.504 in 296 plate appearances last year, so it's definitely possible he winds up emerging from the crowd with something close to a starting role, but Hicks' return definitely makes that less likely.

WORLD BASEBALL BAROMETER

While those of us on this side of the ocean have no idea when our favorite teams will next take the field, there's still plenty of baseball being played for those willing to seek it out. The following handful of players are some of the top names to know if you're looking to get into Asian baseball, either for daily fantasy contests or simply as a fan.

Nippon Professional Baseball (Japan)

Gerardo Parra, OF, Yomiuri Giants: After serving as a clubhouse leader and part-time outfielder for the World Series champion Nationals, the 33-year-old Parra headed overseas in November to join the defending Central League champions, the Giants. The 2020 NPB season is just three games old, but Parra has already made an impact, first by bringing "Baby Shark" to the empty Tokyo Dome and then by his performance. He's been batting in the bottom half of the order for his new team, but that might change soon, as he began the campaign by going 4-for-9 with three walks, two homers and six RBI through his first three contests.

Tetsuto Yamada, 2B, Tokyo Yakult Swallows: Yamada is a name for MLB fans to know if they're looking for the next potential Japanese star to make the jump across the Pacific. No other player in NPB history has more than one season with a .300 batting average, 30 homers and 30 steals, but Yamada has accomplished that feat on three occasions. In that context, his 2019 campaign, in which he hit .271/.401/.560 with 35 homers and 33 steals (as a second baseman, no less), practically counts as a down year. He's started 2020 on the right foot, matching Parra with a pair of homers through his first three games. He could potentially be available for MLB teams to sign this winter.

Korea Baseball Organization (South Korea)

Sung Bum Na, OF, NC Dinos: Another player who could make the jump to MLB this winter, Na had planned to do so last offseason, but he wound up missing most of the 2019 campaign due to a serious knee injury. He's having the type of season he needed to have if he's to prove he's healthy and ready to make the step up to the highest level. He's hitting .319/.397/.620 and sits third in homers (12), second in runs (36) and tied for fourth in RBI (35). For context, Hyun Soo Kim, who was roughly an average hitting at the MLB level in 191 games for the Orioles and Phillies, posted a .979 OPS in 2015, the year before he made the jump, slightly below Na's 1.016 mark in a slightly higher-scoring era.

Mel Rojas Jr., OF, KT Wiz: Rojas spent several seasons stateside in the Pirates' and Braves' organizations but was never able to advance beyond the Triple-A level. He's now in the middle of his fourth season in Korea and has developed into one of the best hitters in the league. He hit .300 or better in each of his first three seasons for the Wiz but has reached another level this year, hitting .382/.421/.703. He's tied for the league lead with 13 homers while sitting second in RBIs (40) and third in runs (35).

Chinese Professional Baseball League (Taiwan)

Lin Li, 2B/3B, Rakuten Monkeys: It's unclear whether  Lin has MLB ambitions, but if anyone makes the jump across the ocean from the CPBL (the lowest of the three leagues discussed here), Lin seems to be the guy. Offense has exploded in Taiwan this season due to a juiced ball, but that shouldn't take away from Lin's dominance. Through 38 games, the 24-year-old leads the league with a dominant 1.155 OPS, the product of a .401/.467/.688 slash line. He's tied for fourth with 11 homers (over halfway to his career high) while sitting second with 11 steals.