MLB Barometer: It's All Right To Be Wrong

Don't worry, this won't be a morality lesson.

When you look at it from a certain perspective, playing fantasy sports is essentially making a series of predictions you're making about the players in that sport. Every time you pass up one player to draft another, you're making predictions. Every time you make or accept a trade, place a waiver claim, even bench one pitcher for another, you're making predictions on how they'll perform going forward.

When viewed that way the most important thing to learn (and it can be a hard lesson for some), the most important piece of knowledge you can carry with you, is this: your predictions will be wrong. Your predictions will be wrong often, and they will be wrong in sometimes spectacularly embarrassing fashion.

The winners in fantasy sports might be wrong slightly less often, but more importantly, the winners are the people who know they will be wrong. They expect it. In fact, they even plan for it.

Let me give you a couple of examples from my own personal experience. Back in around 2004 or so, I made a minor deal in the RotoWire Staff Keeper League where I was trading a player I didn't intend to keep for a minor league prospect. I wasn't thrilled with the offer I got. The prospect in question has a reputation for being a bit of a head case and while he was hitting well that year in High-A (and later Double-A) his 2013 numbers were nothing remarkable. I didn't expect him to become anything more than an athletic utility player who'd steal some bases, really. Still, I had a farm spot open, so rather than fighting for a "better" prospect and risk the trade falling apart, I took the deal.

Turns out I was indeed very, very wrong about Hanley Ramirez, and he became a cornerstone of my roster for the rest of that decade.

The other example is much more recent. I'm in a 12-team NL-only industry league this year. Coming out of the auction I felt I'd done a good job, but has a couple of areas that could be problems. To quote from my auction recap blog post, "Batting average could be problematic as well." It was easy to see why, as my starting lineup includes guys like Brandon Moss, Gregory Polanco, Marcell Ozuna and a low-BA catching tandem. There were lots of guys to drag me down, and no high-average locks to balance them out.

Fast forward to the All-Star break and I'm in first place in batting average, although that statement doesn't do justice to how thoroughly I'm crushing that category. My team is hitting .2902. .2902! That's in a 12-team NL-only industry league made up of fellow experts, not a 10-team casual mixed league where every roster spot houses a stud. Second place is barely in my rear view mirror at .2752. It's absurd. I've got three of the top four hitters in the NL (Daniel Murphy, Wilson Ramos and Martin Prado) and five of the top 15 once you include Ozuna and Derek Dietrich. Call it a humblebrag if you want, but I was totally and utterly wrong about how my team would do in batting average this year.

Now, there have been plenty of other examples I could have picked of me being wrong about a player or players that didn't work out so favorably (Exhibit A, Justin Upton), but that's the point. Part of being a successful fantasy GM is the willingness to be wrong. Consider this scenario: you're at the auction table and a fading veteran gets brought up. Most projection systems have him slated to earn about $10, but you're the kind of GM who likes 'em shiny and new not old and busted, and he was on your Must Avoid list as you think he's going to fall off the cliff this year. The bidding hits $5 and stalls.

If you let him go at $5, you're insisting that you're right about him.

If you bid $6, you're willing to be wrong about him.

Unless your career batting average on predictions is .500 or better, you should probably bid the $6.

RISERS

Maikel Franco (3B, PHI)

Franco's been struggling to make contact over the last couple of months, slashing .230/.270/.380 in May and .233/.320/.465 in June, which isn't surprising for a 23-year-old being asked to essentially carry a major league offense with little help. The two weeks before the break were very kind to him though as he hit .450/.476/.875 in 40 at-bats with five homers, already matching his monthly high in HR on the season. That batting average is the result of a BABIP spike, but there are signs that he's refining his approach at the plate that could allow him to maintain some of those gains. Last year, Franco's hard-hit rate was 28.5 percent. It was a tick lower that that in April (25.0 percent) and May (25.3 percent) this year. In June however it shot up to 39.1 percent, and he's kept it up through the first couple of weeks in July with a 38.2 percent hard-hit rate. Now, the sample size is too small to draw any real conclusions (just 139 PAs between June and July) but that is a very encouraging sign for the young slugger. A hard-hit rate like that would put him in the company of players like Chris Davis (39.4 percent since 2014), Kris Bryant (38.9 percent) and Khris Davis (37.8 percent). If he keeps scalding the ball like this, Franco will indeed be a player the Phillies can build around.

Matt Moore (SP, TB)

Let's be honest, it's been a rough year for Moore. He's still walking too many guys, his 4.46 ERA is backed up by more advanced metrics (4.61 FIP, 4.31 SIERA), and given that he raised people's hopes with an outstanding spring he seems like an even bigger disappointment than he otherwise would. With all that said, it's easy to forget that he's only about 200 innings removed from his Tommy John surgery, including minor league rehab outings. The rule of thumb is that it takes a full season to bounce back and his numbers over the last month would seem to back that up. Over his last six starts, Moore's got a 2.52 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 34:11 K:BB in 39.1 innings while only giving up four home runs, a marked improvement on his 1.81 HR/9 rate prior to that stretch. The stuff has always been there, but now the skills might be coming around too. If you're looking for an under-the-radar pitcher to pick up who seems headed for a big second half, make sure he's at the top of your list.

Luis Severino (SP, NYY)

Speaking of under-the-radar pitchers, the Yankees are perched precariously on the fence right now between making a playoff run and packing it in, but no matter which side they end up on Severino seems to be putting himself back into their future plans. Over his last seven starts at Triple-A, he's got a 2.85 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 39:9 K:BB in 47.1 innings while turning in six quality starts. The back of the major league rotation is a bit of a mess, with Nathan Eovaldi jettisoned to long relief and Ivan Nova unable to get out of the fifth inning, so the fact that Severino's not just pitching well but getting deep into games is exactly what the team needs right now. Whether the Yanks decide to rebuild or go for it, the 22-year-old figures to be part of their rotation plans after the break.

Giancarlo Stanton (OF, MIA)

If you're wondering what prompted the intro to the column, it's this guy. Last time I filled in for Vlad back on June 14, I mournfully put Stanton in the Fallers section as he was mired in the worst slump of his career, striking out better than 40 percent of the time and hitting something close to a half-Mendoza. In fact, the slump was so incredibly bad I wasn't sure he would snap out of it. Since then, all he's done is hit .326 (28-for-86) with eight homers and a .674 SLG. You're welcome? He's still striking out an awful lot (28 K's to match those 28 hits) but whatever adjustments he's made seem to have paid off, and then of course he did this last night in the Home Run Derby

Giancarlo Stanton hit 27,190 feet of home runs, or 5,012 Jose Altuves.

— Jon Tayler (@JATayler) July 12, 2016

Our preseason projection for Stanton called for 42 homers and a .272/.362/.557 line. He'll almost certainly fall short in batting average, but if anyone can hit 22 bombs after the All-Star break, it's him. Your window for acquiring him at a discount probably slammed shut after his prodigious performance Monday, but it can't hurt to inquire.

Troy Tulowitzki (SS, TOR)

While the Blue Jays were never going to complain about getting out from under Jose Reyes' contract, they haven't exactly been thrilled with what Tulowitzki's been producing for them in return. He's been hurt a lot, and when he hasn't been hurt he's been lousy. Whenever anyone doubts the existence of a Coors Field hangover, where hitters have to adjust to playing at sea level again after spending a lot of time in Colorado, just point to Tulo's first five months in Toronto. Since returning from his latest DL stint though, a light bulb seems to have gone off. He's hitting .313/.371/.600 with six homers in his last 80 at-bats and both in the field and at the plate actually looks like a player worth $20 million again. Tulo's walking more, striking out less, hitting more line drives, using the opposite field... just about everything you could look for to suggest improvement at the plate is represented. The Jays will be getting Jose Bautista back in the second half, so if Tulo keeps Tulo-ing too the AL East is going to become a true fireworks factory when it comes to offense between them, the O's and the BoSox. Pity the opposition pitchers who have to run that gauntlet.

Logan Verrett (SP, NYM)

As the old saying goes, whenever God closes a door he opens a window. Well, the door's been closed for Matt Harvey and is creaking ominously for a few other Mets hurlers, but that just lets Verrett sneak into the rotation through that open window. His numbers have taken a hit this year as he's been yanked between starting and relieving, but he showed last year that he can be a solid mid-rotation guy when given the chance, and he should get that chance once again in the second half. Given his raw stuff, the best comp here might be to his division rival Tanner Roark, who thrived as a starter in 2014, struggled last year in a swing role, then went right back to thriving when he rejoined the Nationals' rotation this season. Given his friendly home park and the two soft offenses in Atlanta and Philadelphia, he could well put up some very useful numbers over the next 10 weeks.

FALLERS

Javier Baez (2B, CHC)

Just to restore balance to the MLB Barometer universe, in my June 14 column I listed Baez as a riser and Stanton as a faller, so here they switch places. That's no reflection on Baez's performance during that time, as he's hitting .273/.320/.454 with no complaints about his defense, but it's simply a reflection of the incredible depth on the Cubs' roster. Baez has been good but so has Albert Almora, and by the end of the month Dexter Fowler and Jorge Soler will be off the DL and fighting for at-bats to call their own. All those healthy outfielders pushes Bryant back to third base, which suddenly leaves Baez with no easy path to regular at-bats or possibly even a spot on the bench. Somebody with options will have to head back to Triple-A Iowa to make room on the 25-man roster, especially when you consider that Willson Contreras is going nowhere, and that someone could well be Baez. Even if he sticks though, his playing time is due for a significant reduction.

Raisel Iglesias (RP, CIN)

Iglesias has looked great since coming off the DL, posting a 0.73 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 14:6 K:BB in 12.1 innings. Unfortunately, those 12.1 innings haven't come in two starts but instead in six relief appearances, as the Reds don't seem convinced he can hold up under a starter's workload and have stuck him in the bullpen. There was also some talk of using him as a closer while he was out, but Tony Cingrani has been getting the job done there, so that leaves Iglesias stuck in fantasy limbo as a long reliever. In the long term he's still an excellent keeper, but in the short term his value has a definite ceiling if he's neither starting or closing. High-K relievers with good ratios still have their uses, but in shallower leagues he's basically a spec play to stash on your bench in case he works his back into a premium role.

Nomar Mazara (OF, TEX)

Don't get me wrong, I adore Mazara as a prospect and think he'll be a big part of the heart of the Rangers' batting order for years to come. He's got easy power, makes consistent contact, and his 15.8 percent K-rate is extraordinary for a 21-year-old kid in the majors. He seems to have smacked into the proverbial wall though, as over the last month he's slashing just .210/.257/.286 and has been hitting the ball with less authority. It's not surprising given his age and big league pitchers were bound to develop a book on him, but the grind of the long season isn't going to afford him many chances to take a breath and adjust back. Texas has plenty of other outfield options and can't be too patient with him if the AL West race heats up, so the most likely scenario will see his numbers continue to drift downward over the summer.

Chris Sale (SP, CHW)

Baseball's wins leader at the break is not having quite as exceptional a season as his 14-3 record would indicate. His 8.9 K/9 rate is the lowest of his career and can be tied to a decrease in his fastball velocity (92.9 mph, more than a mile and a half less than 2015) but even more worrying is the sudden explosion of home runs he's giving up. Over his last six starts and 40 innings, Sale's served up a whopping 10 long balls, giving his a nasty 2.3 HR/9 rate over that stretch. There's no word that he's hiding an injury or anything, but in a season that's already seen a lot of stumbles and attrition among the previously stable and secure elite class of pitchers, his recent form can't be ignored. I mean, if even Clayton Kershaw can break down, what hope do merely mortal pitchers have? Sale may well shake it off in the second half, but if his filthy stuff is beginning to lose its edge he could be just at the beginning of a tough adjustment period.

Jameson Taillon (SP, PIT)

The most important number to keep in mind with Taillon is zero, as in the numbers of innings he threw in 2014 and 2015 combined. He's been great in 2016, but such a long layoff and checkered injury history is going to make the Pirates super-cautious with him, and his latest bout of shoulder fatigue is a big red flag. It might well be something that a couple of weeks of rest can clear up, but it also forced the front office to weigh the 24-year-old's future value against their rotation needs this season. As it stands right now, the Bucs are 7.5 games back of the Cubs in the NL Central but only 1.5 games out of a wild card spot, with the Mets, Cardinals and surprising Marlins all within a few games of each other. If Pittsburgh fades at all in that race, the prudent course would be to shut Taillon down entirely or at least strictly limit his innings for the rest of the year (he's already thrown 89.2 IP between the minors and majors) rather than push him too hard with no postseason payoff at the end.

Luis Valbuena (3B, HOU)

As with Baez, Valbuena's listing here has little to do with what he's doing right now and more to do with what the Astros are likely planning in the coming weeks. Alex Bregman looked like a man among boys at the Futures Game and clearly has nothing left to prove in the minors, hitting .389/.421/.889 with five homers in his first eight games at Triple-A. When he gets called up, Bregman will take over at third base, forcing Valbuena across the diamond to first if he wants to get regular playing time. A.J. Reed is the future at first though, and both he and Valbuena are lefty hitters so a platoon isn't really an option either. The 30-year-old's strong play (.333/.421/.622 over the last month) might get him the nod over Reed in the short term, but the moment Valbuena shows signs of slowing down he could find himself on the bench and getting 2-3 starts a week backing up the kids. If you can trade him now while he still has good value based on that recent surge, you need to think about cashing him in.