MLB Barometer: Coming Back to Earth

"It is unwise to be sure of one's own wisdom. It is healthy to be reminded that the strongest might weaken and the wisest might err."

I don't often quote Mahatma Ghandi - in fact, I never have - and I certainly don't think I'm God's gift to fantasy sports. But if I don't constantly remind myself of the fundamental law of gravity, I could easily get carried away in a sea of overconfidence. At the risk of angering the roto gods and jinxing a hot start, let me tell you that my two most important fantasy teams are absolutely crushing it so far - and it feels good.

The NFBC Main Event team (15-teamer) with Andrew Moody started with Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper and Justin Upton. Yasmani Grandal and his 8 RBI game? Check. Mark Teixeira's April power explosion? Check. Shelby Miller, Ubaldo Jimenez and Hector Santiago playing out of their minds? Check, check and check. We did make a last-second selection of Tanaka over Pineda in the ninth round, and we both have admitted to waking up in cold sweats about it. On the flip side, we added Delino DeShields Jr. and Maikel Franco for pennies on the dollar - pennies compared to what folks are spending on them this week - hopefully these are prescient calls.

The Primetime team with Lindy Hinkelman is no slouch either, and an even more exciting team to follow thanks to our fifth and sixth round picks, Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts. We weren't ecstatic about picking out of the ninth spot, but settling on Anthony Rizzo has been fun a ride thus far. We've got Grandal there too, and got a good month of April out of Kendrys Morales, Devon Travis and Jake Marisnick. Matt Harvey and Jake Arrieta anchor the staff, and we were able to snag Jeurys Familia and Noah Syndergaard in free agent bidding by the hairs of our chins. I've since shaven off my goatee. Yasiel Puig and Josh Hamilton are currently on the shelf, hoping to get dusted off soon.

While I've had my share of success in fantasy baseball, I also know that my own BABIP is due for regression and there are yet many ways Humpty could have his big fall. Bryce Harper will run into walls - both proverbial and real ones. Ubaldo and Hector turn back into pumpkins at midnight (read: June 1). Syndergaard and Carlos Rodon (both teams) both struggle and get sent down. Teixeira's minor toe injury inevitably turns into a back injury when he bends down to remove the back strap of his Tevas, and Pedro Alvarez (also on both teams) becomes the first player since the venerable Rob Deer to knock out 25 longballs while ending the year below the Mendoza Line.

Of course, who knows - maybe they'll keep on keeping on and I will truly have a BRYOAT (best roto year of all time).

Or maybe my teams will fall somewhere in between.

The bottom line here, in fantasy sports, you're never as good as your best week and never as bad as your worst. A quote my buddy Michael Cohen stands byafter a decade and a half of fantasy baseball and online poker. Corey Kluber is the perfect example. How many were cursing Kluber and thinking 'my season is over!' just one week ago? One start and 18 strikeouts later, 'he's back, baby!' Well, did you think that maybe Kluber never left? He just had a couple of rough starts, you know, like every single great starting pitcher ever since the invention of baseball! Kluber also isn't the guy who will throw 15-plus strikes every outing either. Kluber still is exactly who we think he is. So is Clayton Kershaw for that matter, so cut him some slack.

We drafted the players we did for a reason. Actually, both squads are a confluence of strong opinions where bending was required. I admittedly did not care for Shelby Miller as much as Andrew, but we got him. I convinced Lindy on Puig over his boy George Springer and I'm sure he's eye-rolling me as I write this. Garrett Richards, Morales and Marisnick were must-haves for me at their draft slots, and hopefully they can continue their strong starts.

At this point, I have very little control over the fate of these teams. Maybe they are teams of destiny, or maybe they are the Chris Shelton of roto. Nevertheless, I won't be counting my chickens prematurely and will continue to remind myself that I'm not as wise or prophetic as I think I am in my most productive fantasy week. Though I will continue to incessantly click on the live scoring tab, because if you remember from my last piece, I'm still obsessive with a touch of compulsive.

Risers

Brandon Belt (1B, SF) - As a lifelong Dodger fan, it isn't hard for me to dislike the Giants. Though for some reason, I've always loved Brandon Belt. I only ended up with a couple of shares, mostly because I had two corner infielders locked in before his name came up for consideration, and Week 6 was one of those weeks where I regretted not owning him in more leagues. Belt crushed his first three homers of the season - in back to back games against the Reds - and finished the week hitting .370 (10-for-27) with nine runs scored and 7 RBI. Teammate Hunter Pence returns at a perfect time, and with Belt and Buster Posey heating up, the Giants' offense suddenly looks somewhat formidable. Belt is up to .321 but he may be more of a power hitter than a contact guy, and the home park certainly doesn't help. He did have eight home runs through five weeks last year before breaking his thumb in the middle of last May. His .419 BABIP is through the roof at the moment, but the 26 percent strikeout-rate is about his career average. Though batting .300 isn't out of the question, it's much more likely he hits 25 roundtrippers with 100 RBI in what is his age-27 season. Belt has just three hits in 19 at-bats against LHP, but has shown the ability to hit well against them in the past. Believe in Belt and expect a career year - he is due for some good fortune in the health department.

Delino DeShields Jr. (OF, TEX) - This guy isn't just another waiver wire fad - DeShields has the potential to be a game-changer, especially for teams hurting in stolen bases. DeShields has warp speed on the base paths, and on a short list of players who could steal 60 or more this year (along with Jose Altuve, Billy Hamilton and Dee Gordon). Opportunity arose for DeShields when Ryan Rua hit the DL early on and Leonys Martin missed games, but Martin returning to action didn't affect DeShields' playing time. He reached base 14 times last week (nine hits, 5 walks) in 28 plate appearances, hitting at the bottom of the order, and earned his way into the two-hole on Sunday. New DeShields owners hope he sticks there. The stolen base totals the last few season have been Hamilton-esque despite never playing a game in Triple-A. He stole 54 in Double-A last year, 51 in Single-A in 2013 and whopping 101 bags in Single-A in 2012. The Houston Astros' loss appears to be the Rangers' gain. The former first round pick of 2010 has a bit of pop in his bat as well - 11 homers in Double-A last year. DeShields is worth a pick-up even for teams who are off to a good start in the stolen base category. If Tommy Field struggles at second base, DeShields (a minor league 2B) would fit in perfectly there, increasing his value multi-fold should he gain eligibility at middle infield. With Josh Hamilton expected back soon, DeShields' best bet to play full-time would be at second base.

Ubaldo Jimenez (SP, BAL) - It's quite understandable to dismiss late round options because he's DTM (dead to me), but what that does is limit one's chances of hitting on potential goldmines near the end of your fantasy squads' rotation. If anyone is capable of a late career resurgence, it's pitchers like Jimenez, and the A's Scott Kazmir, who have illustrated dominance earlier in their careers. Jimenez is off to a great start - a 38:12 K:BB ratio and quality starts in four of his seven appearances. His ratios are among the best in his division - 1.01 WHIP and 2.43 ERA. Though the FIP (3.20) is nearly a full earned run higher, an ERA in that range over 150-plus innings would make his owners very happy. There's no increase in velocity - in fact, it is down a tad from last year. But Jimenez looks confident on the mound this year, and three of those games came against the stalwart Blue Jays. Jimenez struck out 19 of them in 19 innings pitched. Improved control and a career-high ground ball rate (57 percent) are two of the biggest factors that make 2015 a different animal from his last few seasons of struggle. Jimenez should be safe to deploy this week against a Miami Marlins who have the second most strikeouts against right-handed arms in the National League. You'll still have to pick your spots with Jimenez until you feel fully comfortable, and even then he can surprise with a bad outing, but overall we're looking at a mature pitcher who should contribute to fantasy teams at nearly no cost.

A.J. Ramos (RP, MIA) - Ramos is in a great position to run away with the Marlins' ninth inning gig. Easily the their most dynamic reliever, Ramos successfully scored his first career save on Wednesday night following back to back blown saves by Steve Cishek who was ousted from the role following the Tuesday night blowup. Ramos has a 24:6 K:BB ratio in 19 innings this year. He relies primarily on a 92 mph fastball and mixes it up with a changeup that has been nearly unhittable (sub .150 xBA) over the course of his short career. The Marlins fired manager Mike Redmond yesterday. Whoever the new manager will be would be wise to play it safe with their best option at the end of games - that option being Ramos. New Ramos owners' plans could be foiled if the Marlins choose to sign free agent Rafael Soriano, but Soriano's skills have been on the decline over the past couple of seasons. The Marlins boast a nice home park for pitchers and a good team and division for save opportunities. Ramos was bid on with confidence in many of my NFBC leagues last night even though there are no guarantees in the short term of what ninth innings may hold for the Marlins. Ramos has the stuff, and hopefully the mindset to run away with the closer's job and never look back this year. Add him with confidence if the new manager anoints him.Update: The Marlins have hired their own GM (Dan Jennings) to replace Redmond. Jennings has no managing experience.

Honorable Mentions:

• Avisail Garcia (OF, CHW) - Hitting .342 with a .380 OBP through 33 games, the White Sox will be heating up soon and Garcia will be in the middle of the surge.
  
• Brandon Crawford (SS, SF) - A big week (.417, 7 R, 9 RBI) as the Giants faced some subpar pitchers. He isn't this good, but a decent shortstop is hard to find, especially one spending the latter half of his week against Rockies' pitchers in Coors Field.
  
• Jason Hammel (SP, CHC) - A incredible 41:6 K:BB ratio, great run support and a road two-step against the Padres and Diamondbacks this week.
  
• Hector Santiago (SP, LAA) - Has allowed only one earned run or less in six of last seven, though I am sitting him for the @ TOR, @ BOS two-step in Week 7.

• Freddy Galvis (SS, PHI) - A .393 BABIP screams of regression, but first, a trip to Coors Field for one last hurrah before you drop him.
  
• CC Sabathia (SP, NYY) - Nice K:BB (42:10), but I don't trust the aging veteran in a division where offenses have yet to really heat up.

Fallers

Carlos Santana (1B, CLE) - Santana had just two hits in 19 at-bats last week and is hitting .220 through the first six weeks. Batting average has never been his forte (career .247 BA), but Santana has definitely been a victim of bad luck - a .240 BABIP tells part of the tale. Santana walk-rate (19.2%) and strikeout-rate (16.7%) are both excellent and are better so far than they were in 2014. He has also struggled with a sore back over the weekend, missing Sunday's game. Other than a minor concern with his back, there isn't much to worry about here - Santana is locked in as the team's first baseman with a prime lineup spot as the cleanup hitter.

Troy Tulowitzki (SS, COL) - Unlike Santana, there are several reasons to worry about Tulo. He has been dealing with tightness in his left quad, which has caused him to miss both games over the weekend, and a possible DL stint. We are also hearing whispers of trade rumors, and the possibility that Tulowitzki just isn't happy in Colorado. Having his hefty contract traded to a contending team will only solve part of the problem. Lower body injuries have plagued him over the years, and they don't miraculously cure with a trade. Plus, a move to almost any other park to call home would be a downgrade. Days like these are solid reminders why some choose to avoid drafting Tulo in the second round of drafts. Awful timing too as he would potentially have an eight-game all-home week.

Corey Dickerson (OF, COL) - Another important cog in the Rockies' offense, Dickerson may be forced to hit the disabled list after his plantar fasciitis flared up again on Saturday. Taking a few week off to heal isn't ideal for his owners, but it's the only reasonable solution for those who want to get any real production from Dickerson this year. Ballplayers can tolerate it and even play on it, but the feeling of having needles at the bottom of your foot and not having a solid base definitely has a negative impact at the plate and in the field. Dickerson's season is anything but lost - taking the proper time to heal will hopefully put Dickerson in a position to be the productive breakout player we witnessed in 2014.

Anthony DeSclafani (SP, CIN) - DeSclafani appeared to be a waiver wire darling heading into the month of May, but has now become droppable in 12-team mixed leagues. Coming over from the Marlins in the offseason, DeSclafani earned a rotation spot with the Reds in spring training, mostly due to the lack of options and an injury to Homer Bailey. He was scorching in four April starts (3 ER, .154 xBA in 26 IP) but has been getting crushed over his four May starts (10 ER, .295 xBA in 16 IP). The main issue has been the free passes, allowing 12 walks over those 16 innings. DeSclafani lines up to face the Indians in Cleveland this weekend and then the Nationals at home the following week - starts that don't look as playable as they would have just 30 days ago.

Dishonorable Mentions:

• Tyler Flowers (C, CHW) - Useless over the first six weeks, Flowers has just one homer, a .214 batting average, a 30 percent strikeout-rate and has been losing playing time to Geovany Soto.
  
• Khris Davis (OF, MLW) - Very streaky and an easy out for LHP, Davis was 2-for-13 in Week 6 and losing playing time to a red-hot Gerardo Parra. The home runs will come, but not the 25 we were expecting if he continues to sit as often as he has been.
  
• Neftali Feliz (RP, TEX) - His job may be up for grabs after his third blown save (3 ER) on Sunday. His year-to-date ratios stink (5.51 ERA, 1.71 WHIP) and it may finally be time for someone else to get a shot. Steve Tolleson (the veteran) or Keone Kela (the velocity) may next up, but Tanner Scheppers may be best suited long term.
  
• Alex Colome (SP, TB) - Last week's treasure is this week's garbage. He gave up 11 hits and eight earned runs to the Yankees early in the week and then failed to rack a single strikeout against the Twins over the weekend, as he was pulled after 3.1 innings. Hold him if you can, but leave him on the bench - he's better than this, but maybe he's really missing those PEDs.

  Don't Panic On:
  

  • The rookies - Joc Pederson (OF, LAD), Alex Guerrero (OF, LAD), Mookie Betts (OF, BOS) - I mean, you didn't really expect Pederson to hit 50 homers and Betts to finish the year with first round value, right? Rookies traditionally go through rough patches more often than seasoned players, no matter how talented they are. Temper expectations and enjoy the hot stretches when they occur. Pederson won't run like he did in the PCL nor hit for a high average, but 30 homers are realistic. Guerrero fits best on 15-team NFBC-style leagues where you can plug him in for half-weeks when you know he's starting; but Justin Turner still stands in his way. Betts will get his 20/20 and another hot stretch is just around the corner.
    
  • Top 25 overall vets - Hanley Ramirez (OF, BOS), Robinson Cano (2B, SEA) - Cano's Week 6 (4-for-25, 1 R, 1 RBI) could not have been worse, but expect that to be his worst week of the season. Ramirez is homerless in his last 13 games, but hit five homers in the six games prior. With Hanley, there's always the worry of injury. If you don't want that headache on your team, wait for the next hot streak then send out some trade offers (though, it's rarely ever that easy these days, especially with smart leaguemates). Cano has started off cold before - nothing to worry about. A nice trip to Camden Yards and Rogers Centre this week may very well cure that cold.