Minor League Barometer: This Week's Prospect Landscape

The Houston Astros did not need a shortstop when they drafted Alex Bregman with the No. 2 overall selection in the 2015 draft. After all, the 'Stros have a budding superstar in Carlos Correa currently manning the position at the big league level. In addition, Correa is actually six months older younger than Bregman. Nevertheless, a team can never have too much talent or depth. Likewise, taking the best player available, as opposed to drafting for need, is a preferred strategy, at least in my humble opinion.

Bregman has been tormenting Double-A pitching this season to the tune of .321/.424/.679 with 10 home runs and 28 RBI in 28 games. Houston has had struggles filling the third base spot in the majors, leading the club to begin playing Bregman at third base in Double-A. Assuming underwhelming first-round pick Colin Moran is not the answer, Bregman should be playing the hot corner for the Astros by the summer. Houston will be rewarded for taking the best player available despite not necessarily having a need at that position.

Let's take a look at the rest of the prospect landscape in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Peter O'Brien, OF, ARI – If O'Brien played for an organization residing in the American League, he would likely be in the big leagues. However, he is still learning to play the outfield, and the Diamondbacks already are playing several former infielders there (Yasmany Tomas, Chris Owings and Brandon Drury, to name a few). Still, with rather significant injuries to A.J. Pollock and David Peralta, it is only a matter of time before O'Brien forces Arizona's hand. He is batting .318 with 12 home runs and 31 RBI through 38 games for Triple-A Reno. Though the 25-year-old has an outrageous 47:3 K:BB, the D-Backs are likely less concerned with the strikeouts due to his ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark. In addition, he has now played a total of 173 games at Triple-A, and is batting .294 over that span.

Dylan Cozens, OF, PHI – Speaking of power bats, Cozens is tied for the lead in home runs in the Eastern League thus far in 2016. The 21-year-old has 11 home runs, tied with Colorado phenom David Dahl. Interestingly, Cozens smacked just eight home runs in 111 games all of last season, though he did hit 16 dingers in 2014. Nevertheless, Cozens is a massive, athletic corner outfielder at 6-foot-6, 235-pounds, so the improved power stroke may not be an aberration. In addition, he has already stolen nine bags in 2016, after swiping 20 bases or more in each of the last two seasons. That combination of power and speed should make Cozens, a second-round pick in 2012, an intriguing prospect. It is also worth noting that he has hit over .280 each of the last two seasons as well.

Matt Hall, P, DET – A sixth-round pick in last season's draft, Hall led the Cape Cod League in strikeouts in 2014 and led all of college baseball in punchouts in 2015. He has found little resistance thus far in the minors. The 22-year-old lefty out of Missouri State has excelled during his first season of full-season ball, notching a minuscule 0.69 ERA and 43:10 K:BB in 39.1 innings. Hall is a strike-thrower with a nasty curveball, so perhaps it is not surprising that he is dominating at this level. His fastball barely scrapes 90 mph, though, so it remains to be seen in what role Hall will end up. For now, though, it is difficult to argue with his track record.

Clint Frazier, OF, CLE – Frazier has been on an absolute tear recently. Over his last 10 games for Double-A Akron, the 21-year-old outfielder is batting a crisp .486 with three home runs, eight RBI and three stolen bases. During that span, Frazier has more walks (9) than strikeouts (5). Arguably the top prospect for the Indians along with teammate Bradley Zimmer, Frazier has improved his slash line to .312/.391/.539. An OPS of .931 will do just fine for one of the younger players at this level. His average has improved at each stop of full-season ball, and Frazier has always shown patience at the dish. With projections for double-digit home runs and double-digit steals, it appears Frazier is finally living up to the lofty potential that made him the No. 5 overall selection in the 2013 draft.

CHECK STATUS

Grant Holmes, P, LAD – The Dodgers seem to have so many elite pitching prospects. Julio Urias immediately comes to mind, as the southpaw is currently dominating at Triple-A and should make his MLB debut later this season. Jose De Leon is another high-ceiling pitcher, though shoulder issues have landed him on the DL. Meanwhile, Holmes is just 20 and was a first-round selection in the 2014 draft but does not get nearly as much publicity as the above-referenced phenoms. Part of that reason has been his penchant for issuing walks over the last year or so. Holmes walked 54 batters in 103.1 innings at Low-A in 2015. He has been a tad better with his control in 2016, issuing 16 free passes in 42 innings. Of course, the strikeout potential makes Holmes a worthwhile gamble, as he has averaged more than a strikeout per inning during his brief professional career. If his control improves, Holmes could be eventually be discussed in the same breath as Urias and De Leon.

Austin Voth, P, WAS – It is easy to get lost in the shuffle in the Washington system with prospects like Lucas Giolito, Victor Robles, Trea Turner and Reynaldo Lopez in the fold. However, Voth has had nothing but success since entering the minors, and could be on the verge of getting a shot with the big club. Over a full year, he has never had an ERA over 3.50. At Double-A in 2015, Voth had a 2.97 ERA and 148:40 K:BB in 157.1 innings. His 2016 campaign has been equally impressive thus far, as the 23-year-old righty has a 3.25 ERA and 44:8 K:BB in 44 innings. Voth does not have any one elite pitch, but he mixes a quality fastball/slider/changeup combo and can throw all three in any count for strikes. He does not have the upside of a pitcher like Giolito, but he could have the ceiling of a No. 3 pitcher in the big leagues.

Ronald Guzman, 1B, TEX – Guzman is a big-bodied first base prospect that has been brought along slowly by the Rangers since being signed as a teenager. Now 21 years of age, Guzman spent more than two years at Low-A, where he struggled to find his power stroke despite standing at 6-foot-5 and weighing over 200 pounds. With his prospect star fading, Guzman finally had a decent season in 2015, where he hit .283 with 12 home runs and 87 RBI between Low-A and Double-A. Guzman began this season at Double-A, and it appears he finally may be turning the corner. Through 38 games, he is slashing .321/.397/.518 with five home runs and 23 RBI and is on pace for career bests in home runs and walks. He still strikes out a bit too much, and it remains to be seen if he will truly develop into a 20-homer threat. However, Guzman has certainly placed himself back on the radar.

Marcos Diplan, P, MIL – On the plus side, Diplan has 45 strikeouts in 34.2 innings for Low-A Wisconsin. Opposing batters are hitting a putrid .165 against him, and his era sits at a stellar 1.56. On the downside, Diplan has also walked 19 batters, and has not pitched more than five innings in a game this season. His 6-foot, 160-pound build does not exactly evoke images of a frontline workhorse, but his strikeout stuff is evident, and Diplan is still just 19 years of age, so the Brewers may just simply be bringing him along slowly. Diplan has excellent stuff, but must be able to locate his pitches, as well as show he can handle the rigors of being a top-of-the-rotation starter.

DOWNGRADE

Brian Johnson, P, BOS – After making one start in the big leagues in 2015, Johnson seemed primed for a role with the Red Sox in 2016. He was solid in 18 starts in Triple-A in 2015, posting a 2.53 ERA and 90:32 K:BB in 96 innings. An elbow injury following his MLB debut caused him to miss the remainder of the 2016 season, but it was not deemed serious and he was expected to make a full recovery. The numbers game got him sent back to Triple-A to begin the 2016 campaign, though, and the first-round selection has scuffled since. Johnson has a 4.64 ERA and 28:22 K:BB in 33 innings. Though opposing batters are hitting decently against him, it is clear that his problem has been control, as Johnson has never walked more than 39 batters in a season since entering the minors until this year. Apparently he has battling anxiety issues, and has been placed on the Temporary Inactive List. There has been speculation regarding whether it is baseball-related or otherwise, but it is clear something is awry on the field for Johnson in 2016. All the best for a speedy return to the mound.

Trey Michalczewski, 3B, CHW – Michalczewski was considered one of the better White Sox hitting prospects heading into this year, though admittedly the system is among the worst in baseball. Still, Michalczewski did drive in 75 runs at High-A in 2015, and just turned 21 years of age in February. He has struggled at Double-A to begin the season, though. Michalczewski is slashing just .231/.320/.361 with 50 strikeouts in 41 games. He has just two home runs and 17 RBI over that span. Other than Tim Anderson, the White Sox do not appear to have an elite impact-bat currently in the system. In fact, the other "top" prospects for the White Sox at Double-A have struggled mightily as well, including Carson Fulmer, Tyler Danish, Courtney Hawkins and Eddy Alvarez.

Aaron Judge, OF, NYY – Judge has hit a bit of a rough patch recently. The towering outfielder is batting just .216 over his last 10 games for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. He does not have a home run over that span and has fanned 10 times. In addition, Carlos Beltran has been crushing the ball lately at the big league level. Over the last two weeks, Beltran is batting .320 with five home runs and 14 RBI. That right-field slot where Beltran currently resides is likely the future position for Judge. However, with the Bronx Bombers playing inspired ball behind Beltran, it does not appear that Judge is close to being promoted, particularly with his struggles at Triple-A. Naturally, injuries could change the narrative, but for the short term, Judge will remain in the minors.

Sean Newcomb, P, ATL – Considered an elite pitching prospect heading into the 2016 campaign, Newcomb has not quite looked the part thus far. Obtained in the offseason from the Los Angeles Angels in the Andrelton Simmons deal, Newcomb continues to battle control woes. Newcomb walked 76 batters in 136 innings across three levels, but managed to limit the damage overall and post a 2.38 ERA for the year. Perhaps it should not be surprising, though, that the walks have started to bite Newcomb at the higher levels. Through 46 innings at Double-A in 2016, Newcomb has issued 29 free passes. That has resulted in a 3.91 ERA, which isn't horrible by any stretch, but is certainly not elite. Of course, the strikeout is the great equalizer, and Newcomb has fanned a batter per inning this season as well. Still, the walks will almost certainly come back to haunt him as he continues to ascend the minors, so he must get this control issue fixed if he is to remain a top-tier talent.