Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

As schools let out and the summer is within reach, let's throw out a few nuggets about players to watch before diving into the meat of this week's Minor League Barometer:

• With Paul Skenes now in the bigs to stay, an argument can be made that Noah Schultz in the White Sox organization is currently the top pitching prospect in the minors
• Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins should soon return from injury to bolster the Twins system.  Lee could even see time with the parent club later this season.
• Speaking of Minnesota, Zebby Matthews is a 24-year-old righty who boasts a 51:1 K:BB in 40.1 innings between High-A and Double-A. Yes, you read that correctly.
• Yilber Diaz is a hurler whose name has also popped up recently. The Arizona farmhand has posted a 3.23 ERA and a staggering 70:19 K:BB across 47.1 frames at Double-A.
• Boston has seen a few prospects improve their stock so far this season, including hitters Nazzan Zanetello (Low-A), Kristian Campbell (High-A) and Matthew Lugo (Double-A) who have all exceeded expectations so far in 2024.

As promised, here are some more in-depth player profiles as we continue to highlight talent from across the minor league landscape.

UPGRADE

Spencer Schwellenbach, P, ATL – Schwellenbach will make his ML debut on Wednesday in what has been a rather meteoric rise. He played shortstop in 2021 with Nebraska, but also operated as the team's closer. Schwellenbach was a second-round pick that year, yet underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after signing. He didn't appear on the mound until 2023, but rewarded the organization's patience by producing a 2.49 ERA and 55:16 K:BB through 65 innings.  Schwellenbach's been even better in 2024 with marks of 1.80 and 51:10 K:BB across 45 frames, with the last two starts at Double-A where he tossed 13 scoreless innings, scattered five hits, allowed only one walk and fanned 17 batters. He's athletic, throws strikes and has shown exceptional command of his four pitches, especially considering he's only logged roughly 100 professional innings and was only a part-time pitcher prior to last year. Schwellenbach will turn 24 later this week and could be given the chance to stick in the rotation if he finds early success.

Luke Keaschall, 2B/OF, MIN – Keaschall found little resistance at High-A to begin the season as he slashed .335/.457/.544 with seven homers, 21 RBI and 14 steals in 44 games with more walks (30) than strikeouts (29). The 49th selection from 2023 was subsequently promoted to Double-A.  Keaschall has more speed than power, though he's not devoid of the latter as that's started to show up of late. If this newfound power is for real, the only question will be where he fits on the field. But if Keaschall keeps hitting like this, Minnesota will certainly find a place for him.

Samuel Basallo, C, BAL – The Orioles don't really have a need for a catcher at the big-league level given the presence of Adley Rutschman, yet it can't hurt to have too much depth or talent. Basallo is still just a teenager, but already at Double-A and won't turn 20 until August. He's batting an even .400 over his last nine games with two home runs and six RBI. Basallo's power stroke is only expected to grow as he matures and fills out his 6'3" frame and could make it to Baltimore as early as 2025.

Ralphy Velazquez, 1B, CLE – A catcher by trade, Velasquez has already been shifted to first base where his bat will certainly have to carry him. He just turned 19 this week and is slashing .278/.387/.479 with seven homers, 29 RBI and four steals through 38 contests at Low-A. Velasquez is expected to hit for both power and average and has shown advanced discipline at the dish by recording 26 walks while striking out less than one per outing. A first-round pick from last year, he could be pushed aggressively in a farm system light on impact bats.

CHECK STATUS

Adael Amador, 2B, COL – Amador endured a dreadful start to the season, though appears to be turning it around going .345 during his last seven games at Double-A Hartford. The 21-year-old switch-hitter has also registered three homers, six RBI and two steals in his last two games alone.  Despite only being at .179 on the campaign, Amador has almost as many walks (31) as strikeouts (32) to go along with 18 steals. He's never hit below .292 at any previous level, so there is cause for optimism especially given his expected double-digit contributions in both power and speed.

Colt Emerson, SS, SEA – Emerson is still considered a premier prospect, but he's currently on the Injured List due to a small fracture in his foot. He's wearing a protective boot for at least another week and will then be reevaluated. A first-rounded in 2023, the 18-year-old showed polish beyond his years prior to the injury by picking up 19 walks in 19 contests en route to a .441 OBP alongside two home runs, 14 RBI and three swipes. Emerson only appears to be scratching the surface of his potential. If he can tap into that power, he'll become one of the most anticipated prospects.

Jacob Wilson, SS, OAK – Wilson came out scorching to start season by compiling a robust .455/.473/.705 line with three homers, 19 RBI and two steals across 22 games at Double-A before getting promoted. He didn't let up in six subsequent appearances at Triple-A hitting 9-for-24.  Unfortunately, Wilson then suffered a knee injury and has been on the IL for the past week.  He offers an exceptional hit tool, but wasn't expected to produce much power. However, Wilson's three early long balls already tripled his total from 2023. If Wilson can chip in some home runs as well as those stolen bases, he could become an intriguing shortstop prospect assuming he can return to full health soon enough.

Spencer Jones, OF, NYY – Jones was one of the darlings of spring training and has even been compared to Aaron Judge due to his size. He began the season with a neck injury, and has yet to find his footing at Double-A since slashing just .215/.301/.311 through 34 games. Perhaps most surprising has been his lack of power with only two homers. And Jones has already fanned a staggering 54 times. Add in that the current Yankees outfield is raking at the big-league level and Jasson Dominguez is ahead of him at Triple-A and almost ready to return from injury, and Jones is much farther away from the Majors than he was two months ago.

DOWNGRADE

Jett Williams, SS, NYM – Williams has been on the Injured List since the end of April due to a right wrist ailment, and his recovery doesn't appear to be going as planned. Initially expected to be sidelined a few weeks, it now appears he'll be shelved at Double-A for at least 14 more days.  Arguably the top hitting prospect for the Mets, Williams was hitting .179 prior to the injury, though he only appeared in 11 outings. When healthy, he's expected to handle the bat well, steal plenty of bases and draw a lot of walks. Williams may end up at second base when all is said and done, but there's no rush given the current state of the parent club as well as his own health concern for so a 2025 debut is far more likely under the circumstances.

Yohandy Morales, 3B, WAS – Morales boasts standout raw power, yet there are questions about his hit tool. The University of Miami product received a rather aggressive assignment to Double-A to begin 2024 and has responded with mixed results at best as he's managed a .238/.315/.346 line with two home runs and 17 RBI through 37 games while fanning 36 times. Morales recently suffered a thumb issue, which has put him on the IL. The sample size is small and the future could still be bright, though this is clearly not the start he envisioned.