Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Prospect movement is coming fast and furious as the season draws to its conclusion. Masyn Winn made his MLB debut last week for the Cardinals while strikeout machine Kyle Harrison just got the call from the Giants. Despite battling some walk and homer issues, Harrison still fanned an impressive 105 batters in only 65.2 innings at Triple-A prior to the promotion. Meanwhile, Noelvi Marte got his first big-league hit as a member of the Reds on Sunday. Expect plenty more up-and-comers to get thrust into the limelight in the coming weeks.

While next week's article will attempt to highlight those who could be called up for the stretch run in September, the following column will once again focus on some lesser-known players who could become household names for next year and beyond.

UPGRADE

Lazaro Montes, OF, SEA – A bona fide power prospect, Montes is only 18 but already stands at 6"3, 210.  Since shifting from the Arizona Complex League, he's been mashing at Low-A where he's batting .361 with six home runs and 20 RBI through 15 games. Montes' strikeout rate has come down since his Dominican Summer League days in 2022, though Ks will likely always be a part of his profile. He also isn't afraid to draw a walk and hasn't struggled to make hard contact since beginning his pro journey. The sample sizes are still small and Montes still has a way to go until he gets to the bigs, though his ceiling has been compared to the Astros' Yordan Alvarez -and that is some high praise.

Brock Porter, P, TEX – Porter was selected in the fourth round of last year's draft, but the prep pitcher was paid handsomely despite his fall. He made his professional debut in 2023 and hasn't disappointed by registering a 2.49 ERA and 83:41 K:BB across 61.1 innings. The walks are a red flag, but the opposition is only hitting .163 against Porter, who has the build and arsenal of a frontline rotation anchor. The opposition at the higher levels will improve and he must work on his command as extra baserunners will come back to haunt him. Porter's projection is incredibly high, so he could emerge as one of the top pitching prospects if he's able to bring down his walk total.

Kyle Teel, C, BOS – The latest MLB draft boasted plenty of star power, and the likes of Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes, Max Clark, Wyatt Langford and Walker Jenkins are already making noise in their respective organizations. Teel was selected 14th overall, but deserves more publicity. After a few complex games, the University of Virginia product bypassed Low-A and hit the ground running at High-A going .414 with a .514 OBP through seven appearances. The sample size is obviously small, though the reigning ACC Player of the Year has demonstrated the ability to handle the bat. Teel offers plenty of power andthe athleticism to remain behind the dish, yet could also end up in the outfield.

Roderick Arias, SS, NYY – There's some serious hype around Arias, an 18-year-old prodigy who is excelling in the Florida Complex League as he's slashing .267/.423/.505 with six homers, 26 RBI and 17 steals from 27 games and almost as many walks (27) as strikeouts (29). Arguably the top prospect in last year's international class, he's still young but already well-rounded in terms of contact, patience at the dish, speed, power and fielding acumen. Arias's speed may outweigh his power, though he's far from devoid of pop. A long road still remains to the Majors, but he provides some excitement in what has otherwise been a surprising lost season for the Yankees.

CHECK STATUS

Mason Barnett, P, KC – The polished collegian out of Auburn has risen quickly through the ranks of the Kansas City system. Barnett began 2023 at High-A, where he posted a 3.18 ERA and 94:38 K:BB in 82 innings with the opposition hitting only .203 against. He was then promoted to Double-A, where he's looked even better in three outings with a 1.93 ERA and 19:4 K:BB in only 14 frames  while getting a lot of ground balls. Barnett's lack of height and his lack of a consistent third pitch have been knocks on him in the past, yet he throws hard and hasn't issued too many additional free passes to get himself into trouble. The Royals continue to search for reliable arms in the rotation. So if the latest wave of starters like Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic and Jackson Kowar don't pan out, the focus will shift to names like Barnett, Ben Kudrna, Frank Mozzicato and Blake Wolters.

Graham Pauley, 3B, SD – Pauley slipped by every team in the 2022 Draft several times before the Padres ultimately grabbed him in the 13th round. And he's done nothing but rake since entering the minors. In fact, Pauley's gone .300 or better at both Low-A and High-A before recently being promoted to Double-A. His production in terms of power and speed has also been surprising with 16 home runs over 45 games at High-A to go with eight steals as it was previously thought he may not provide much production in either category. Pauley may ultimately end up at another position due to the presence of Manny Machado, though that versatility should only end up helping his cause - especially if he continues to hit.

Reggie Crawford, P, SF – Crawford is being handled extra carefully due to recent Tommy John surgery and his limited experience as a hurler. He led the Big East in homers during 2021 and has barely pitched, but boasts elite size and athleticism along with an electric fastball that can reach triple digits from the left side while his slider is pretty impressive. Crawford has received 13 starts between Low-A and High-A, yet has only recorded 19 innings as he continues to work his way back and shift his focus to the mound. He's a project as a pitcher, though a potentially tantalizing phenom  with 32 strikeouts from those 19 frames. Crawford will remain under the radar for the time being, but could see a significant bump next year and is worth monitoring.

Denzel Clarke, OF, OAK – Despite two straight horrible seasons from the big club, the Oakland organization is surprisingly bereft of serious talent coming through the pipeline. Clarke is one of the more highly touted prospects on the farm, though he's currently on the Injured List. The cousin of Josh Naylor, Bo Naylor and the recently drafted Myles Naylor has a powerful build at 6'5" 220, though has only shown some power at Double-A having reached double-digits in both home runs (12) and stolen bases (11). Clarke has also has drawn 37 walks through 64 contests en route to a .381 OBP, but strikeout woes continue to persist with 85 Ks after being punched out 135 times a season ago. His average is still respectable at .261 and almost no one is seriously blocking his path in the Majors. Just like Lawrence Butler, expect Clarke to receive plenty of at-bats to explore his potential in the bigs, perhaps as early as 2024.

DOWNGRADE

Brandon Barriera, P, TOR – Barriera still offers plenty of upside, yet has had a difficult time staying on the field during his first full season as a professional. The 19-year-old southpaw notched four starts at Low-A to begin the year, then missed almost two months due to an elbow injury. Barriera returned in July, only to hurt his bicep and land back on the IL. He's made six starts at Low-A while compiling a 4.42 ERA and 23:8 K:BB in 18.1 innings. He primarily uses a fastball/slider combo, though also mixes in a change-up. The Jays could choose to simply shut Barriera down for the year to avoid further arm issues. He remains one of the top arms in the Toronto system, but this year clearly hasn't gone according to plan.

DL Hall, P, BAL – Hall has been working out of the bullpen in August at Triple-A, and could be in line for a call-up when rosters expand in September as the Orioles attempt to secure the AL East and shore up their postseason roster. He's impressed by posting a 15:2 K:BB in only 6.2 innings out of the this month. Hall could be a key component for the Baltimore bullpen, but a move from the rotation clearly affects his fantasy value. Though this may not be a permanent move (see David Price), he could be best used in this specific role moving forward. This may ultimately be where Hall ends up as the southpaw boasts electric stuff, but has issues locating his pitches. He's also battled injury issues throughout his professional career and will turn 25 in September, so the development stage of his career is all but done.