Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

As the All-Star Break approaches, the Minor League Barometer will continue on its course. Let's take a look at some prospects who've improved their stock at the season's midway point and a few phenoms who've left a lot to be desired. And enjoy the Futures Game on Sunday. Among those slightly under-the-radar, I'll be paying close attention to Clayton Beeter, Tyler Soderstrom, Mike Vasil and Ryan Bliss.

Happy Independence Day!

UPGRADE

Tink Hence, P, STL – We might have to rename this column "The Tink Hence Fan Club". He still doesn't get proper respect in prospect circles, and will continue to be highlighted until that changes. I'll note Hence has been included on the roster for the Futures Game. Despite missing a month earlier this season due to chest/oblique issues, he still compiled a 2.81 ERA and 46:12 K:BB in 41.2 innings at High-A and was promoted Hence to Double-A. The lack of workload appears to be the only knock on Hence, who's otherwise dominated the opposition with a 2.56 ERA and 141:30 K:BB across 102 professional innings. The Cardinals are unlikely to rush him to the big leagues due to his youth and the fact the club is last in the NL Central. Gordon Graceffo and Michael McGreevy are older and currently at Triple-A ahead of Hence on the depth chart, though the latter offers more upside.

Jud Fabian, OF, BAL – It seems like every other week we're profiling another Orioles phenom in the upper levels of the minors. A compensatory pick in last year's draft out of the University of Florida, Fabian flashed his versatility in 56 games at High-A slashing .281/.392/.490 with nine home runs, 43 RBI and 19 stolen bases. Though the 22-year-old struck out a bit too much, he also showed he wasn't afraid to take a walk. Due to his showing there, Fabian was bumped to Double-A and has already produced four homers and two steals in only 11 contests. The Baltimore farm system is crowded with the likes of Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser, but Fabian's power/speed combination gives the club yet another intriguing outfield prospect who could see the majors as early as next year.

Mason Black, P, SF – The Giants have some elite left-handed pitching prospects coming through the pipeline, though an argument can be made Black is the best the organization currently has to offer from the right side. A third-round pick out of Lehigh in 2021, opposing batters are hitting .197 against him through 15 starts at Double-A and he's posted a 3.66 ERA and 74:20 K:BB from 59 innings. Black has been even better of late as he hasn't allowed a single earned run over his last five outings covering 22.1 innings along with a 29:5 K:BB. Kyle Harrison and Carson Whisenhunt get the pub in the San Fran farm system, yet Black deserves more notoriety.

Jeferson Quero, C, MIL – Due to Quero's youth and position, his stock has risen significantly. Only 20, he's already at Double-A and more than holding his own against much older competition hitting .286/.357/.510 with 12 home runs and 34 RBI in 53 games. The power numbers are particularly exciting, but so is Quero's ability to handle the bat with just 39 strikeouts. He hit .286 in 95 games a season ago split between Low-A and High-A and has never gone below .278 at any level since entering the minors. Quero is expected to stay at catcher and could be fast-tracked to the big leagues as long as he can stay healthy.

CHECK STATUS

Jared Jones, P, PIT – Jones has always flashed stellar strikeout potential, though additional baserunners the last couple of seasons resulted in ERAs hovering around 4.60. While his strikeout numbers dipped to begin the season at Double-A, the overall result was arguably the best stretch of his brief professional career. In 10 starts at Double-A, Jones posted a 2.23 ERA and 47:16 K:BB while opposing batters hit .201 against. He was rewarded with a promotion to Triple-A at only 21 and has already fanned 17 batters through 15.1 innings. The key for Jones will be consistency in location and length when it comes to staying in games. 

Owen Murphy, P, ATL – A prep righty selected in the first round of 2022, Murphy hasn't been overmatched thus far as a teenager at Low-A with a 4.14 ERA and 59:18 K:BB across 45.2 innings.  He operated as a two-way player in high school and is an exceptional athlete, but his uptick in fastball velocity and development of secondary offerings has allowed him to flourish on the mound, which is where his future appears to lie. Murphy should be a strike thrower, and that has been largely true to form during his first 12 starts this season. He may never be the overpowering ace based on his lack of explosive fastball, yet the pitch has plenty of movement and still resides in the lower 90s. Most notably, Murphy fanned 12 batters and didn't issue a single walk on Jun. 23. He's likely to be brought along slowly given his age and pedigree, but he's done nothing to change his promising outlook.

Blade Tidwell, P, NYM – Tidwell's first full season as a professional has gone rather well, especially of late. He's registered a 3.53 ERA and 86 strikeouts in only 58.2 innings at High-A. And in June, Tidwell struck out at least nine batters in three of five starts. Unfortunately, the former Tennessee Volunteer does have 37 walks on the campaign. While Tidwell has managed to limit the damage by the many missed bats, the additional baserunners could come back to haunt him at the higher levels. He's managed to allow two runs or fewer in eight straight starts, and a promotion to Double-A could be forthcoming.

Jarlin Susana, P, WAS – The jury is still out on Susana, the youngest prospect involved in the Juan Soto trade. Now 19, he's already a mountain of a man at 6'6", 235. Perhaps unsurprisingly, he throws hard, whether it's his fastball or slider. The development of Susana's curveball and/or changeup will go a long way towards determining whether he sticks in the rotation or becomes a power arm out of the bullpen. Through 45.2 innings at Low-A, he's posted a 3.18 ERA and 47:26 K:BB. The walks certainly jump off the page, yet opposing batters are only hitting .198 against Susana and he's yet to give up a homer through 12 starts. He won't see the bigs for a few years, but the Washington organization should be happy with his progress to date.

DOWNGRADE

Jasson Dominguez, OF, NYY – This season was supposed to be the coming out party for the phenom affectionately known as "The Martian". Dominguez was one of the surprise stories of spring training, but instead has struggled to make consistent contact during the regular season through 69 games at Double-A hitting just .205. On the plus side, he has racked up 10 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 56 walks, though the subpar batting average obviously limits his potential ceiling. Dominguez is still only 20, yet he's been physically maxed-out for some time. The walks are nice, but the current batting average won't cut it at the higher levels, even with his other skills.

Porter Hodge, P, CHC – Hodge broke out in 2022 with a 2.63 ERA and 141:55 K:BB in 109.1 innings between Low-A and High-A while batters went .202 against. He succeeded in not only missing bats, but also keeping the ball down with only four homers conceded from 25 outings. Fast forward to this year, and Hodge hasn't had quite the same level of success. But it hasn't been the long ball that's plagued him, but rather the free passes having allowed just two home runs and the opposition still hitting .204 against while walking 31 batters over 52 innings and producing a 5.37 ERA. As prospects ascend levels, it becomes more and more difficult to limit damage when walks are issued, so Hodge will need to cut down on those to turn around his season.