Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

A few players previously profiled this season continue to enjoy dominant minor league campaigns. The Orioles boast a bevy of riches at the upper levels, including Colton Cowser who's slashing .347/.484/.590 with eight home runs, 31 RBI and five steals in 39 games at Triple-A with almost as many walks (37) as strikeouts (41). Meanwhile, Dodgers farmhand Emmet Sheehan is clearly ready for his next challenge having posted a 1.64 ERA and a staggering 83 strikeouts over only 49.1 innings at Double-A while the opposition is hitting .119 against. Yankees product Chase Hampton is also racking up the Ks having fanned 69 across 41.1 frames at High-A. Both Sheehan and Hampton were taken in the fifth round or later of their respective drafts and have already exceeded expectations.

Who else should be getting more publicity? Let's try and find some rare gems in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Abimelec Ortiz, OF, TEX – The JUCO product rebounded from a tough 2022 with a stellar start at Low-A slashing .307/.392/.604 with seven homers and 20 RBI through 29 games. That resulted in a quick bump to High-A, where the 21-year-old lefty hasn't stopped hitting sending four more deep over nine games while hitting .313. Ortiz offers legitimate power and has also already grown in terms of making contact despite the fact he was never awful in that category to begin with. If he can continually hit for any sort of average, his stock will certainly rise.

Zach Dezenzo, 3B, HOU –  The fear in drafting Dezenzo was his penchant for swings and misses, though that hasn't materialized so far in 2023. In fact, he's tormented High-A pitching over 31 games batting .407 while registering less than one strikeout per game. Dezenzo's dominance at that level led to a quick call-up to Double-A, where he's 8-for-27 (.296) with almost as many walks as Ks through eight contests. And he's already stolen 11 bases in the 39 combined appearances.  Perhaps most surprisingly, Dezenzo has hardly tapped into his power potential and that was considered his best tool coming out of Ohio State. If his power stroke begins to come around - and not at the cost of his other improved traits - he could become a popular pickup.

Brainer Bonaci, SS, BOS – Bonaci is blocked by uber-prospect Marcelo Mayer at shortstop, and may end up at second base. He's not only considered a superb fielder, but it looks as though he's found his swing at the dish. After failing to hit above .279 at any level since entering the minors in 2019, Bonaci is slashing .340/.398/.524 through 26 games at High-A. He swiped 28 bags last season and registered the same amount of walks as strikeouts. While Bonaci's speed is still a weapon and he does have the ability to draw a walk, this newfound development at the dish adds an exciting tool to his arsenal. He's also displayed more pop than expected, though he's only produced three homers but has supplemented that with eight doubles and one triple. Bonaci and Meyer both turn 21 later this year, and the Red Sox could have a budding double-play duo for years to come.

Robby Snelling, P, SD – Straight out of high school, Snelling is acting as though he's been around for years. The southpaw is cruising through eight starts at Low-A with a 1.23 ERA and 40:12 K:BB in his first taste of pro ball. Snelling primarily uses a lethal fastball/curveball combo. He generally keeps the ball down having only allowed two home runs through 36.2 innings. A standout football player in high school, athleticism is clearly not a concern for Snelling. If a decent third pitch materializes, he may quickly become an elite hurler.

CHECK STATUS

Thayron Liranzo, C, LAD – Evaluating catching prospects may be among the most difficult tasks.  Liranzo is a switch-hitting backstop with plenty of power to spare.  At just 19, Liranzo has crushed 14 homers in 43 games at Low-A. He's also hitting a career-best .259 to go with a .378 OBP. The Dodgers carry a bevy of catching phenoms throughout the system, not to mention Will Smith in the bigs, but Liranzo's power potential is difficult to ignore. Whether he can hit for enough average at the higher levels will determine how far he can advance.

Jared Serna, 2B, NYY – His cousin Luis is pitching in the Yankees system and considered to offer more upside, but Jared is off to an outstanding start at Low-A slashing .322/.385/.517 with eight home runs, 28 RBI and 13 steals across 45 games. The power stroke is particularly notable as Serna was considered more about average than power when he signed. There has clearly been a concerted effort to lift the ball, and his ability to make contact hasn't suffered from the adjustment. Serna is on the small side at 5'6", yet his bat can be loud. He'll almost certainly be typecast as a utility infielder or future pinch runner, but there is the potential for more.

Jackson Ferris, P, CHC – The sample size is very small, but Cubs officials have to like what they see thus far from Ferris. A second-round selection in 2022, he's posted a 0.64 ERA and 17:6 K:BB in 14 innings at Low-A. Ferris has been kept on a short leash and control will be the key as his delivery is a bit complicated. He still has three standout pitches and a projectable frame with the ability to possibly add a few ticks. Ferris won't see the big leagues for some time, but his future appears bright.

Adam Kloffenstein, P, TOR – Kloffenstein has battled command problems throughout his time in the minors, though the big-bodied righty is enjoying perhaps his best season as a professional with a 3.12 ERA and 64:22 K:BB across 52 innings. His control has been much improved this season, and perhaps not coincidentally he's striking out batters at a career-best rate. The walks will likely always remain a part of the package with Kloffenstein, but he's been able to limit the damage overall. The constant traffic on the basepaths makes his ceiling as a No. 3 starter.

DOWNGRADE

Mason Montgomery, P, TB – Tampa Bay's 2022 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Montgomery has only been satisfactory so far this season. He continues to walk too many batters with 24 free passes in just 41.2 innings. Montgomery has been much more hittable than before as an overreliance on his fastball has allowed for more hits and homers, with the additional base runners leading to a 4.75 ERA through 11 starts at Double-A. The southpaw is still only 22 and he's fanned 55 batters, though it certainly doesn't appear he'll be fast-tracked to the Majors based upon this year.

Edwin Arroyo, SS, CIN – There's plenty to get excited about on the farm for the Reds, starting with Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte - not to mention the debuts of Matt McLain and Andrew Abbott. Arroyo boasts just as much upside as almost all of those players - save for De La Cruz - but he sure hasn't played like it since coming over from Seattle in 2022 as part of the Luis Castillo deal and is only slashing .226/.272/.369. Arroyo has still shown that intriguing power/speed combination with five home runs and seven steals over 41 contests, but his lack of consistent contact is a bit of a red flag - even despite his youth.