Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Could baseball really return in May?  Whether plausible or not, even the possibility lends a small glimmer of hope that some sense of normalcy will return sooner rather than later.

Here are a few prospect nuggets and opinions before we get into the meat of this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

1.      The Rays and Padres have the two best farm systems now, and there's a significant drop off after that.

2.       Nick Lodolo of the Reds and Vidal Brujan of the Rays are prospects ranked in the top 100 on most lists whom I still think people are too low on.

3.      Perhaps no organization has improved its farm system more over the last year than the San Francisco Giants.

4.      I'm not as high on Alex Kirilloff of the Twins as everyone else.

5.      We haven't seen this type of talent at the top of the shortstop position since the Alex Rodriguez-Derek Jeter-Nomar Garciaparra class.

We hope this week's article finds you safe, healthy and staying positive.

UPGRADE

Josiah Gray, P, LAD – Gray could be the top pitching prospect in other organizations and likely would be assured a 2020 debut on a team with less talent and lower expectations.  Gray breezed through three levels in 2019, compiling a 2.28 ERA and 147:31 K:BB in 130 innings and finishing at Double-A.  Batters hit a putrid .207 against him during his first full season in the minors.  A former reliever who has only been starting for two years, Gray has three pitches, impressive control and possible room for even more development.  A big year could vault Gray near the top of the pitching prospect list heading into 2021.

Lewin Diaz, 1B, MIA – Diaz profiles as the first baseman of the future for the Marlins, even with the waiver claim of Jesus Aguilar in the offseason.  The 6-foot-4, 225, lefty finally found his power stroke in 2019, bashing 27 home runs between High-A and Double-A.  He has ideal size, a solid glove and doesn't strike out a ton either.  He won't walk a lot, but has hit for average in three of the last four seasons in the minors.  The Marlins are extremely high on Diaz, so while he won't start the season in the big leagues for the Fish, he could finish the year with the big club if enough games are played.

Bryce Ball, 1B, ATL – Ball came out of virtually nowhere in 2019.  A 24th-round pick out of Dallas Baptist, Ball found little resistance in the Appalachian League and crushed the ball at Low-A Rome in 21 games to finish the season.  At 6-6, 235, Gray unsurprisingly has mammoth raw power.  However, he also hit a combined .329 in 62 total games last year.  The sample size is small, and Ball's size will be used against him by more advanced pitching at the higher levels.  Still, the start is extremely promising, and Ball could end up being a diamond in the rough for the Braves.

Ethan Small, P, MIL – Small has the chance to be a big riser this season given his age and pedigree.  The 23-year-old was a first-round pick out of Mississippi State last year and blew away the competition in five starts at Low-A.  He posted a 1.00 ERA and 31:4 K:BB in 18 innings.  This result is largely unsurprising given his age and experience advantage over the usual Low-A hitters, but could also give a taste of Small's capablity.  Small's next stop or two will give a better idea of what his future path will be as the competition levels up, though.

CHECK STATUS

Jose Garcia, SS, CIN – Garcia is a prospect ranked outside the top 100 on most lists, but he is toolsy enough that a second solid season in a row could push him into the conversation in 2021.  The 22-year-old Cuban struggled adjusting in his first season in 2018, but rebounded last year.  At High-A, Garcia slashed .280/.343/.436 with eight home runs and 15 steals in 104 contests.  While there appears to be more of a question about his power than his speed, Garcia did club two home runs in a spring training game prior to the hiatus, so he will not be completely devoid of pop.  He also hit 37 doubles at High-A in 2019.  How Garcia handles Double-A will tell us a lot about Garcia's prospect trajectory.

Alek Manoah, P, TOR – Manoah is a high upside, big-bodied hurler who dominated six starts in the Northwest League after being drafted in the first round in 2019.  The development of his changeup will be crucial in whether Manoah can be a truly elite pitcher, as he already has a mid-90s heater with movement and a powerful slider.  The 22-year-old out of West Virginia will also have to prove his superb control over the above-referenced six starts was not a mirage, as he had previously struggled with throwing strikes in the past.  Nevertheless, Manoah's stock is firmly on the rise, as his ceiling is tremendously high.

Gilberto Jimenez, OF, BOS – Jimenez has a chance to surge into the upper echelon of outfield prospects with an uptick in power.  The switch-hitting centerfielder hit an impressive .359 in 59 games in the short-season New York Penn League, swiping 14 bags in the process.  Still a teenager, Jimenez does have a rather smallish build but does have room to fill out.  Jimenez hit a ton of ground balls last year, and with the way the game is trending, he may need a swing adjustment.  The hope  is that a launch angle shift does not affect his ability to hit for average and get on base to steal, which are his two best assets.

Matt Tabor, P, ARI – The Diamondbacks organization is stocked with hitting talent, but the pitching side leaves much to be desired.  Blake Walston is the de facto No. 1 starter in the system and Luis Frias has a special arm.  Tabor would be next on the list, and showed a sharp uptick in strikeouts between 2018 and 2019 while losing none of his impeccable control and command.  He posted a 2.93 ERA and 101:16 K:BB in 95.1 innings at Low-A.  He turned 21  toward the end of the season, though, so he was perhaps a tad old for that level.  He also does not have ideal size despite putting on some added muscle since being drafted in the third round in 2017 out of Milton Academy.  Nevertheless, he is athletic, polished and can reach 96 mph on the radar gun.  If his slider and changeup come around, Tabor could turn heads on a grander scale.

DOWNGRADE

Tyler Freeman, SS, CLE – Freeman may end up being a better real life player than fantasy asset.  Freeman slashed .306/.368/.410 in 123 games between Low-A and High-A.  An aggressive contact hitter, Freeman has the ability to hit for average once he gets to the big leagues, and that is by far his best tool.  He won't walk much, and he does not have much power, at least so far.  He has just seven home runs in 231 career games in the minors.  Freeman has some speed, but that tool is by no means overwhelming.  Freeman swiped 19 bags in those 123 contests in 2019.  He's athletic, and polished with the bat, but the power tool needs to show up for him to live up to the billing as an elite prospect.

Jhon Torres, OF, STL – The youth movement in the Cardinals outfield is readily apparent.  Other than Dexter Fowler, the candidates for significant playing time at the big-league level are all 25 and younger.  Torres is nowhere close to being MLB-ready, but as recently as the beginning of last year he was seen as a possible future cleanup hitter for the Cardinals.  His prospect luster faded a bit with a dismal, albeit brief showing at Low-A last year, and was ultimately returned to the Appalachian League where his performance was much more favorable.  Now 20, Torres is 6-4 with room to fill out and he should be much more at ease at Low-A this time around.  That said, his development could continue to be slow, and another rough start could dampen his phenom status even further.

Brailyn Marquez, P, CHC – Marquez is a high-risk, high-reward hurler in the Cubbies organization.  Possessing an outrageous heater that can hit triple-digits, Marquez is a hard-thrower at heart, though his command has improved as well.  His slider is above-average, while his changeup only decent.  The development of that third pitch will go a long way toward determining whether Marquez can be a frontline starter or relegated to a high-leverage bullpen arm.  The fear  is that Marquez loses grip on his changeup, struggles to hit his spots at the higher levels, and ends up in the bullpen, thereby tanking his fantasy value.  We are far away from the endgame, but perhaps Marquez comes with a bit more risk than some of the other more highly thought of southpaws as a result.

Luis Garcia, SS, WAS – In case you've forgotten, the Nationals won the World Series in 2019.  Juan Soto has blossomed into a full-fledged superstar, and Victor Robles has also graduated successfully from the prospect ranks.  These two will hopefully form the cornerstones for the Nats for the next several years.  All this should soften the blow that Washington has arguably the worst farm system in Major League Baseball.  Carter Kieboom's stock has fallen, yet he remains basically the only impact prospect in their farm system.  Garcia is second on most lists, and while he is still extremely young and has been pushed aggressively, his production leaves much to be desired.  Garcia is a contact hitter who has yet to tap into his power potential, and has provided only mediocre output in the stolen base category.  He also hit a career-low .257 in 2019, albeit as by far the youngest player at Double-A at 19 years of age for most of the season.  Garcia could see Triple-A as a 20-year-old in 2020 if baseball resumes, but he has yet to find the same helium as the aforementioned Soto, and despite the similar builds, it remains to be seen if Garcia can ever come close to meeting those lofty standards.