Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The beauty of the minor leagues from an analysis standpoint is there never ceases to be a shortage of talent to dissect.  As a rough estimate, each organization has about 250 players at some level or stage of the minor league system.  This article highlights 12 players per week.  So, there's plenty of prospect prosperity to sustain us for the foreseeable future.

As the Minor League Barometer moves forward without actual baseball being played, we'll start diving deeper and deeper into the recesses of the minor leagues.  These discussions will range from upper-echelon players who still aren't getting enough publicity to largely unknown phenoms who could be the next breakout prospect, and other neophytes somewhere in between.

As always, feel free to leave a comment below or contact me on Twitter, @JesseLSiegel, for all of your prospect needs.  Please hunker down and stay safe during these difficult, uncertain times.  And a shoutout to all the doctors, nurses, first responders, police officers, grocery store workers, delivery persons and all other essential employees who are keeping us healthy and safe.

UPGRADE

Edward Cabrera, P, MIA – The Marlins have actually done a pretty decent job stockpiling arms in recent years. So much so that they were comfortable dealing Zac Gallen to the Diamondbacks for shortstop Jazz Chisholm.  The breakout 2019 campaign for Cabrera only furthers the comfort level of that deal, along, of course, with the presence of Sixto Sanchez and a slew of young hurlers in the big-league rotation.  Cabrera has a blazing fastball along with emerging changeup and slider.  Cabrera was dominant at High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.23 ERA, 0.993 WHIP and 116:31 K:BB in 96.2 innings.  He just turned 21, and as long as he can stay healthy, Cabrera has the chance to be a frontline starter for the Marlins as early as 2021.

Simeon Woods Richardson, P, TOR – It looks like the Jays got more than initially thought as a return for Marcus Stroman.  The teenager posted a 97:17 K:BB in 78.1 innings at Low-A in the Mets organization before the deal, was sent to High-A following the trade and didn't miss a beat.  Woods Richardson notched a 2.54 ERA and 29:7 K:BB in 28.1 innings at High-A to finish the 2019 campaign.  Although the sample is small, batters hit just .182 against him, and Woods Richardson has always shown outstanding control.  He's feisty on the mound a la the hurler he was traded for, and his ability to throw strikes with three pitches at such a young age gives him significant upside.  He won't see the big leagues until the end of 2021 at the earliest, but Woods Richardson appears to be exceeding expectations already.

Tucker Davidson, P, ATL – The farm system for the Braves was once flush with arms, but a bunch of those prospects have graduated to the big leagues, with varying degrees of success.  At 24 and with the season he had last year, Davidson probably would have already sniffed the big leagues in another organization.  Instead, he will start the season in Triple-A after a sensational 2019 campaign.  A 19th-round pick in the 2016 draft, Davidson has worked himself into a top-10 prospect in the Atlanta organization.  He posted a 134:54 K:BB in 129.2 innings last season, mostly at Double-A.  Control remains a concern, though; the southpaw walked at least 50 batters each of the last two seasons.  Still, his ERA was less than 3.00 last year, and Davidson also kept the ball down at least.  He allowed just five home runs in 25 starts in 2019.  If injury or inconsistency plagues the Braves rotation this year, Davidson could be a replacement call eventually.

Luis Gil, P, NYY – Gil is in the second tier of top pitching prospects for the Yankees, behind Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt.  The 21-year-old righty has shown massive strikeout potential the last two seasons.  In 2019, he fanned 123 batters in 96 innings, mostly at Low-A.  He has an electric heater with late life that can reach triple-digits on the radar gun.  However, his control and off-speed pitches need some work if he doesn't want to end up in the bullpen.  Still, his control has largely improved since entering the minors, and he will remain in the starting rotation for now.  Gil and likely High-A counterpart Luis Medina are high-risk, high-reward prospects worth watching for the Yankees.

CHECK STATUS

Jonathan Stiever, P, CHW – A fifth-round pick in the 2018 draft, Stiever split time between Low-A and High-A in his first full year in the minors in 2019.  He got stronger as the season went on.  He finished at High-A with a 2.15 ERA and 77:13 K:BB in 71 innings.  The polished collegian from the University of Indiana showed excellent command along with the ability to miss bats.  One red flag is his penchant for serving up the long ball, though.  Stiever allowed 17 home runs in 26 starts last year.  He will need to keep the ball down a bit more, as well as improve his secondary offerings at the higher levels.  He also had forearm tightness prior to the hiatus.  Still, Stiever has shown plenty of promise overall, and if healthy, he could start the year as high as Double-A.

Kris Bubic, P, KC – Bubic took the minors by storm early last season, and ended up leading the minors in strikeouts when 2019 was said and done.  Low-A hitters were simply no match for the 22-year-old southpaw out of Stanford, as Bubic fanned a staggering 75 batters in just 47.2 innings.  He came back down to earth a tad when promoted to High-A, but his numbers at that stop were still impressive.  Bubic sported a 2.30 ERA and 110:27 K:BB in 101.2 innings.  He has stellar size, a superb changeup and clearly the ability to miss bats.  His fastball and curveball are adequate, but the lack of velocity on his fastball remains why he isn't more highly touted.  Double-A will be an excellent test of Bubic's future path.

Randy Arozarena, OF, TB – Arozarena made an impression in spring training for the Rays, going 8-for-20 before getting sent to Triple-A.  He has crushed lefties the last two seasons, sporting an OPS higher than 1.000.  That was certainly appealing for the Rays, who play the numbers and enjoy platooning players more than most organizations.  With 16 home runs and 19 steals across three levels and a batting average around .330 for the season in 2019, including of a cup of coffee while with the Cardinals, Arozarena has seen his stock soar recently.  Still, he is already 25 years of age, has solid tools across the board but not any one standout trait.  In addition, since he has minor league options remaining, the Rays can send him to the minors, as they already did prior to the postponement of spring training.  Even if he gets to the big leagues in 2020, he could be used as a strict platoon player.  It is worth noting, though, that his splits were much more pronounced in Double-A than Triple-A last season.  Still, there's simply just too much up in the air about how Arozarena will eventually be used, which limits his upside.

Aaron Ashby, P, MIL – If the last name sounds familiar, it should.  Aaron is the nephew of Andy, a 14-year MLB veteran with a career 98-110 record.  Aaron has the chance to be a better pitcher than his uncle, but this season will play a big determining role in whether he can be a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, or simply a back-of-the-rotation innings eater.  Ashby struggled with walks in 2019, his first full season in the minors.  A fourth-round pick out of Crowder Junior College, Ashby walked 60 batters in 126 innings.  On the plus side, though, Ashby fanned 135 batters over that span and batters hit just .222 against him.  His strikeout rate did dip as he went from Low-A to High-A, something to watch as he begins the 2020 campaign.  What Ashby does have working for him is that he keeps the ball down, posting a 1.24 GO:AO and allowing just five home runs in 24 outings.  Ashby possesses a wipeout curveball that can miss a bevy of bats, but his control needs work.  A southpaw with deception, Ashby's trip to Double-A will tell us a lot about his future path.

DOWNGRADE

Pavin Smith, 1B, ARI – Smith hasn't necessarily been bad, it's more that he has not lived up to his lofty billing as a high first-round draft pick.  A polished college bat out of the University of Virginia, Smith had his best season as a pro in 2019.  Plate discipline might be his best asset, as he tallied almost as many walks (59) as strikeouts (61).  He slashed .291/.370/.466.  While he has more value in OBP-leagues, the issue from a fantasy perspective is that Smith has not hit more than 12 home runs in a season.  As a first baseman with almost no stolen base potential, that is a concern and limits his upside.  At 24, Smith is what he is at this point.  As a result, he may be a better real life player than fantasy commodity.

Adonis Medina, P, PHI – The Phillies were forced to part with Sixto Sanchez  to get J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins; rumors were initially that they tried to deal Medina instead.  There's a reason for that.  Medina does not quite project to be the starter that Sanchez does.  Although he has been promoted deliberately season by season, his numbers have progressively gotten worse since a breakout campaign in 2017.  At Double-A in 2019, Medina had a 4.94 ERA he fanned just 81 batters in 105.2 innings, a stark contrast to averaging more than a strikeout per inning in the previous two campaigns.  He also walked 41 batters in those 105.2 innings, a career high.  It also bears mentioning that Medina has not pitched 120 innings in any season since entering the minors in 2014.  While he's on the 40-man roster, Medina is certainly starting the season in the minors, and could even end up shifting to a bullpen role.  His prospect luster has certainly faded significantly from just one year ago.

Colton Welker, 3B/1B, COL – Rockies hitting prospects always get a boost because of where they will play their home games, but there also needs to be a spot for them to play.  The Rockies have a plethora of prospects at first and third, not to mention Nolan Arenado still on the squad at the hot corner.  Ryan Vilade, Michael Toglia, Aaron Schunk and Julio Carreras are just a few corner infielders who seemingly are ranked higher than Welker.  The 22-year-old had a down season at Double-A, slashing just .252/.318/.408 with 10 home runs and 53 RBIs in 98 contests.  Walker didn't even show big power at High-A in 2018, though he did hit .333 and drive in 82 runs.  While he is ahead of the above-referenced players on the depth chart in the minors, he remains buried behind Daniel Murphy, Josh Fuentes and perhaps even Sam Hilliard and Ryan McMahon, two recent corner infield prospects who have actually both been moved to different positions to get their bats in the lineup.  In other words, not only does Welker not have as much upside as some of the players right behind him in the minors, but there's not even a clear path in front of him to at-bats in the big leagues.  He is likely to start the season at Triple-A when it resumes.

Sherten Apostel, 3B, TEX – Opinions are divided on what Apostel's future holds.  He has tremendous raw power.  He hit 19 home runs last year split between Low-A and High-A as a 20-year-old, and that number should only go up as he matures and fills out the rest of his 6-foot-4 frame.  He is not afraid to take a walk, but also strikes out about once per game.  From a fantasy perspective he has a couple notable downsides, though.  Apostel has almost no speed, and as such won't be a contributor to the stolen base category in really any significant way.  In addition, other than a small sample of 12 games in the Northwest League in 2018, Apostel has never hit above .259 at any level.  If Apostel is an elite home run hitter, the average and lack of speed may matter little.  However, he must prove he can hit enough at the higher levels to produce significant long balls, and also show he can translate that raw power into home run figures.  A 2019 first-round pick, Josh Jung will be breathing down his neck, which could shift Apostel to first base or DH despite a cannon for an arm.  Apostel could be a huge home run hitter, but he is still raw and his future path still unclear.