Keeper Leagues: Basics & Value Picks

TALKING TRADE OVER AN IPA in early January. A whirlwind of movement before the keeper deadline. Fire sales in late May. September bidding wars. These are just a few of the mile markers in the calendar year of a keeper league owner. Playing GM in season-long leagues is classic fun, and daily games have added to the day-to-day excitement of fantasy baseball, but there is nothing quite like trying your hand at architecture in a competitive keeper league. It can be rewarding, it can be disheartening. There will be successes, there will be failures. But even when disappointment strikes, there is always hope for a better tomorrow.

First things first, no matter if you are seasoned veteran or a newcomer to the keeper scene, it is crucial to know and regularly refresh yourself on the ins and outs of your particular league. Did your commissioner send out a league Constitution? Read it, then read it again. Keeper leagues typically include many more wrinkles than standard season-long leagues; keeper eligibility and how contracts and extensions work, salary caps, minor league roster spots, minor league eligibility, trades of future draft picks, inflation, etc.

The most important thing for a keeper league owner is to develop and maintain a plan. Identify your window to compete for a championship, and only make moves that work toward that ultimate goal. Be proactive in executing your plan; explore and exhaust possible avenues. Identify targets and work to find a price you are comfortable paying. Some efforts may prove futile — I once exchanged close to 40 emails with a leaguemate regarding a trade and nothing got done — but talks that fall apart can be blessings in disguise, because there are always other, and sometimes better paths to find the type of production or player that you want. It is key to stick to your plan closely, but deviations are inevitable. A disappointing first couple months, a slew of injuries, or a trade offer too good to pass on can alter your plan, forcing you to punt your "compete year" and look ahead. Meanwhile, a better-than-expected start with signs of sustainability can move your window up and lead you to make win-now moves. Just be sure to think long and hard about changing course before actually doing so. There is nothing worse (or less successful) than an owner who blows in the wind, directionless in shark-filled waters.

Profit potential is king in keeper leagues. That is basically true in any format, but when deciding keepers, and especially when attempting to rebuild, profit margin should be a top priority. It may seem obvious, but for example, a $5 David Peralta is a far more profitable and ultimately more valuable multi-year keeper asset than a $25 Ryan Braun. While Braun is the more productive player and may be for years to come, the profit margin greatly favors Peralta (though Braun would still be valuable and profitable in 2016 at that price). At $5, Peralta would have netted $15 in profit last season in a 15-team, 5x5 mixed league ($260 budget), while Braun would have only profited $4, and the more expensive contracts come with more downside. It's about maximizing your budget and getting the most possible bang for your buck.

When evaluating profit potential for one season, a good rule of thumb is to take a given player's projected earnings for that year and subtract the price at which they are owned. So, for example, if you expect Kris Bryant to earn $30 in 2016 and have him at $18, you can expect to profit $12 from him this season. Profit potential is not always obvious to other owners, and some may undervalue an asset just because a player is not a top-150 overall option.

Buy the skills. It's something that is preached routinely for fantasy baseball. However, that rule is all the more apt in the context of a keeper league, as you do not have a limited window to allow those skills to shine through. Sometimes, no matter how good the skills are, a player simply will not work into a fantasy-relevant role during the course of a given season because that particular player is blocked at the major-league level, or he simply has not yet built the requisite level of trust within the organization. In keeper leagues, owners can ride it out and see if that player's situation changes late in the year or in the offseason. Have an open bench spot? Use it on a reliever with great ratios and an elite strikeout rate in FAAB. Those who grabbed A.J. Ramos for a buck or two in late 2014 were handsomely rewarded in 2015, and now have a keeper or trade chip to work with.

Pride comes before the fall. Stubbornness can be one of the greatest inhibitors of sound keeper league decisions. Swallow your pride, and cut your losses. That can be easier said than done, given that there is a rather fine line between giving up on an asset too quickly and picking the right time to throw in the towel. Last offseason, I made a strong play to acquire a $12 Rusney Castillo (who was bought in FAAB in September of 2014) in a staff league. I took a major loss on that deal in 2015, and I see only the potential for marginal gain or further loss at that price in 2016. I also traded Matt Kemp during the season, who was on an inflated deal and heading into a decision year, in exchange for minor league pitcher Marcos Molina. Molina needed Tommy John surgery in the offseason, and while I could stash him in a minor league spot, Molina is now too far away from contributing for that to make sense. I spent a relatively high reserve-round pick on Braves farmhand Braxton Davidson last spring, and while he is a fine enough prospect, there is every incentive to throw him back with many of the prospects available representing an upgrade.

Here are some players to keep in mind or perhaps take a second look at before your keeper deadline and/or ahead of auctions/drafts:

ANTHONY DeSCLAFANI
P // CINCINNATI REDS

There may not be a lot that is sexy about going to the "Disco" in 2016, but DeSclafani was probably bought for $1 in auctions last year or taken with a final pick in drafts. He did not achieve great results late in the year, skewing his final stats and maybe perception amongst owners. In fact, his owner may be thinking about throwing him back, so his price could be cheap. And if you keep 10-15 players, he would make for a fine back-end keeper with the potential to return plus value at a league-minimum cost for multiple years.

MAX KEPLER
OF // MINNESOTA TWINS

There is still a lot to like for 2016 even with Kepler slated to begin the year in the minors. It may be tough to land Kepler at a reasonable price in keeper auctions this spring, but he was picked up in many keeper leagues after his surprising late-September promotion. Test the waters with his owner, because the acquisition cost may be reasonable, and he probably went for single digits in FAAB bidding.

ENRIQUE HERNANDEZ
2B/OF // LOS ANGELES DODGERS

While Hernandez is not a building block, he is a profit candidate in 2016. The Dodgers may prefer to keep him in a utility role, but if Joc Pederson does not make the necessary adjustments after falling apart down the stretch, or if Howie Kendrick or Corey Seager suffer setbacks in their recoveries from injury, Hernandez could see twice as many at-bats as he did last season. Plus, he is eligible at multiple positions and could be a relatively easy pry from his owner.

DYLAN BUNDY
P // BALTIMORE ORIOLES

For those looking toward 2017 and beyond with the willingness to take on a massive risk, Bundy is the ultimate buy-low candidate. Granted, there is little reason to think the Orioles will suddenly start handling him in any sort of comprehensible manner, and he had another injury issue (forearm) from the Arizona Fall League. Further, he has to be on the 25-man roster on Opening Day, or be exposed to waivers, and thus will probably be buried in the bullpen if he's healthy to start the year. Everything is going against him now, and this may be the final year it's justifiable to buy the pedigree, but there still appears to be a fair amount of upside here.

JURICKSON PROFAR
2B // TEXAS RANGERS

Remember him? Well, you should, even though we have barely seen Profar in two years. After another season mostly lost to shoulder complications, Profar returned late and started getting his feet back under him in the Arizona Fall League, but was limited to DH duty. Thus, his arm is still somewhat of a question mark, and he is now blocked at the major league level, but there is little downside to taking Profar with $1 or a reserve pick and simply seeing what happens in 2016.

YOAN MONCADA
2B // BOSTON RED SOX

The numbers from Moncada's first season in the States are eye-popping, and the scouts are smitten. Although news of Moncada agreeing to a deal with Boston broke by the time most folks drafted or auctioned last year, his contract was not actually made official by MLB until relatively late in the spring. Depending on your league's rules, he may have been ineligible for selection. You are not going to profit from him this year, but if you can get him at or around $10, he could be one of the most valuable and profitable players in the pool in a year or two.

JACOB NOTTINGHAM
C // MILWAUKEE BREWERS

The catcher position is a mess. Only five catchers earned $10 or more in standard leagues last season, and one of those players, Evan Gattis, is no longer catcher eligible. Only seven catchers earned more than $5, and there is not much on the way. Jorge Alfaro, now with Philadelphia, will probably help owners sooner, but Nottingham is one of the best prospects at the position and his keeper stock may soar if he handles the upper levels of the minors anywhere near as well as he hit at Low-A and High-A last season.

A version of this article appeared in the 2016 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. Some parts were changed to reflect recent news.