This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
One of the most interesting September rookies is Toronto Blue Jays catching prospect J.P. Arencibia. A year ago, he looked in danger of washing out as a prospect after a dismal season for Triple-A Las Vegas. But a return trip to the PCL resulted in excellent performance this year, vaulting him back into elite prospect status. How did this happen? Let's find out.
BACKGROUND
A college star at the University of Tennessee, Arencibia was the 21st overall pick in the 2007 draft, the second of five first-round and supplemental first-round picks enjoyed by the Blue Jays that year. He was rated second-only to Matt Wieters among available catchers, with Arencibia showing excellent power potential and good catching tools, though his skills needed some refinement. He had a solid season in High-A and Double-A in 2008, hitting 27 homers combined with a .298 average, although he had some issues with plate discipline. In contrast, his 2009 season at Triple-A Las Vegas was disappointing in many ways, and although some health issues were at least partially responsible, he entered 2010 with a huge question-mark over his head. Fortunately, 2010 has been completely different than 2009, and he's back to being extremely well-regarded once again.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Arencibia is a 6-foot-1, 210-pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born January 5th, 1986. His best tools are strength and power. Defensively, Arencibia was rather raw as a backstop in college, showing a good throwing arm but needing to improve his blocking skills and game-calling.
One of the most interesting September rookies is Toronto Blue Jays catching prospect J.P. Arencibia. A year ago, he looked in danger of washing out as a prospect after a dismal season for Triple-A Las Vegas. But a return trip to the PCL resulted in excellent performance this year, vaulting him back into elite prospect status. How did this happen? Let's find out.
BACKGROUND
A college star at the University of Tennessee, Arencibia was the 21st overall pick in the 2007 draft, the second of five first-round and supplemental first-round picks enjoyed by the Blue Jays that year. He was rated second-only to Matt Wieters among available catchers, with Arencibia showing excellent power potential and good catching tools, though his skills needed some refinement. He had a solid season in High-A and Double-A in 2008, hitting 27 homers combined with a .298 average, although he had some issues with plate discipline. In contrast, his 2009 season at Triple-A Las Vegas was disappointing in many ways, and although some health issues were at least partially responsible, he entered 2010 with a huge question-mark over his head. Fortunately, 2010 has been completely different than 2009, and he's back to being extremely well-regarded once again.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Arencibia is a 6-foot-1, 210-pound right-handed hitter and thrower, born January 5th, 1986. His best tools are strength and power. Defensively, Arencibia was rather raw as a backstop in college, showing a good throwing arm but needing to improve his blocking skills and game-calling. He made progress in that department his first two seasons, especially with the leadership skills behind the plate. His throwing arm is a tick above average. He's thrown out 28% of runners in his career, not an exceptional number. He'll still cough up some passed balls on occasion, but his error rate has declined each year. His glove has improved enough that scouts project him as a regular major league catcher, although he won't win any Gold Gloves. Offensively, scouts have never doubted his power, but his approach at the plate was a big problem in 2009. Scouts were very concerned when he had trouble catching up with fastballs in Triple-A, while also showing some weakness against sliders. His plate discipline was a big problem, but he improved that a great deal this season, significantly improving his walk rate while cutting down on strikeouts. Scouts attribute this to three factors: 1) some swing adjustments that shortened up his stroke a bit; 2) making a better attempt to work counts; and 3) better health. Although he played almost every day last season, he was bothered by kidney and vision problems that, in retrospect, were sapping his skills. He had surgery to correct both issues last fall, and he came into this year with better mobility and eyesight. He's hitting fastballs this year that eluded him last year, lays off the breaking stuff more frequently, and is looking better on defense as well.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Last year, Arencibia hit .236/.284/.444 in 466 at-bats for Triple-A Las Vegas, with 21 homers, 26 walks, and 114 strikeouts. The homers were nice, but Las Vegas is a great place to hit and his batting average and OBP were extremely disappointing. The poor BB/K ratio showed how much he was struggling with the zone. 2010 has been much better: .301/.359/.626, 32 homers, 38 walks, 85 strikeouts in 412 at-bats. He improved his home run production, raised the walk rate, and cut the strikeouts down. It is true that he was repeating the league, and some might be skeptical as a result. But scouts seem to think the improvement was real, and the numbers support the notion that he was seeing the ball better. There were still a few oddities in his record this year: he had a sharp reverse platoon split (.322/.381/.691 against right-handers, but just .228/.284/.402 against lefties). It is also possible that some of the difference between the two seasons was a matter of better luck on balls in play this year compared to poor luck last year. But given that his BB/K/AB improved along with his other numbers, I think this was mostly a genuine breakthrough, with luck a secondary factor.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
I don't think Arencibia will hit .300 at the major league level; he still looks like more of a .260-.280 hitter to me. But he's got legitimate 25-homer power, and enough defense to stick behind the plate for some time. That's got a lot of value in most fantasy contexts.
