This article is part of our John Sickels' Column series.
The Rangers pulled the plug on Chris Davis last week, sending him down to Triple-A Oklahoma. His replacement at first base is Justin Smoak, former University of South Carolina star and one of the top hitting prospects in the minor leagues. The job is his to lose now: if things go well, he'll be the Rangers' first baseman for the next six years and beyond, depending on things like free agency.
BACKGROUND
Justin Smoak was well-known to scouts in high school: he was a teammate of Matt Wieters at Goose Creek, South Carolina. Considered a second-round talent entering the 2005 draft, Smoak had a firm commitment to the University of South Carolina and lasted until the 16th round due to signability issues. Oakland was unable to ink him, so he went off to college, seizing the first base job as a freshman in 2006 with a .303/.407/.586 mark. He followed that with a .315/.434/.631 mark as a sophomore, positioning himself as a premium pick for the 2008 draft. He fulfilled expectations easily with a .383/.505/.757 junior campaign, hitting 23 homers, while drawing 57 walks against only 28 strikeouts in 235 at-bats. His college career was one for the ages: he didn't miss a single Gamecocks contest in three years, and owns school records in homers and RBI. He somehow fell to the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft; most people expected he'd go in the first five picks. Injuries hampered him somewhat in 2009, but he's off to
The Rangers pulled the plug on Chris Davis last week, sending him down to Triple-A Oklahoma. His replacement at first base is Justin Smoak, former University of South Carolina star and one of the top hitting prospects in the minor leagues. The job is his to lose now: if things go well, he'll be the Rangers' first baseman for the next six years and beyond, depending on things like free agency.
BACKGROUND
Justin Smoak was well-known to scouts in high school: he was a teammate of Matt Wieters at Goose Creek, South Carolina. Considered a second-round talent entering the 2005 draft, Smoak had a firm commitment to the University of South Carolina and lasted until the 16th round due to signability issues. Oakland was unable to ink him, so he went off to college, seizing the first base job as a freshman in 2006 with a .303/.407/.586 mark. He followed that with a .315/.434/.631 mark as a sophomore, positioning himself as a premium pick for the 2008 draft. He fulfilled expectations easily with a .383/.505/.757 junior campaign, hitting 23 homers, while drawing 57 walks against only 28 strikeouts in 235 at-bats. His college career was one for the ages: he didn't miss a single Gamecocks contest in three years, and owns school records in homers and RBI. He somehow fell to the 11th overall pick in the 2008 draft; most people expected he'd go in the first five picks. Injuries hampered him somewhat in 2009, but he's off to a fast start this year and is now the major league starter, just short of two years after being drafted.
TRADITIONAL SCOUTING REPORT
Smoak is a 6-foot-4, 220 pounder. He is a switch-hitter, but a natural left-handed thrower and stronger overall as a lefty hitter He's a large guy and doesn't have great running speed, but he's not a slug either and has some natural athletic ability. This shows up particularly on defense, where he excels at scooping errant throws. In college, scouts rated him a possible Gold Glove defender with more experience, but last summer scouts said his range was down, possibly a result of a ribcage injury that bothered him in the second half and also hampered his hitting. Offensively, he has outstanding power potential, especially from the left side, and a very polished approach: his strike-zone judgment is excellent and remarkably good for his age. His swing is line-driveish at times and he doesn't try to pull everything, but few scouts doubt his ultimate power and most expect he'll be a 30-homer producer with maturity. His swing appears longer and slower from the right side, and indeed he did show a sharp platoon split in the minors, hitting .325/.443/.505 from the left side but just .215/.304/.333 from the right. That looks like his main weakness at this point.
SABERMETRIC ASSESSMENT
Smoak began 2009 hitting .328/.449/.481 in 50 games for Double-A Frisco, posting a +27 percent OPS, until a June ribcage injury sidelined him for three weeks. He came back to play 54 games for Triple-A Oklahoma City, but hit just .244/.363/.360. I saw him play twice in that period, and it looked like he was still favoring the ribcage. He continued to control the strike zone well, but didn't look comfortable with his swing and wasn't as mobile in the field as he looked in college. He played better late and slugged nine home runs for Team USA late in the season. He was off to a fast start in 2010, hitting .300/.470/.540 in 15 games for Oklahoma City this April, with six doubles, two homers, 16 walks, and just eight strikeouts in 50 at-bats. So far in the majors, he's just 1-for-13, but has drawn five walks in his first five games.
FANTASY INVESTMENT VALUE
A healthy Smoak has been an excellent hitter, and I don't have any real doubts about his ability to handle the majors. He might not produce huge home-run numbers right away as he adjusts to major league competition. He also needs to improve his hitting from the right side of the plate. But patience will be rewarded, and all told, I expect Smoak to be one of the leading sluggers in baseball for the next ten to fifteen years.
Article first appeared 4/28/10
