This article is part of our Pitching 3D series.
Our trek through the first-half pitching performances of 2016 heads westward, where some of the division's best pitchers have been rocked through the first half of the season. Just as in the previous editions of this series, the grades reflect first-half performance relative to the player's cost on draft day.
Keuchel has been one of the most disappointing pitchers of the first half, and his season-long slump shows little sign of turning around. June was his best month, yet he still got hit for a 4.30 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Last year's Cy Young came out of the blue, but he must have a fairy godmother because he turned back into a pumpkin as soon as the clock struck midnight on his 2015 season. He might avoid the severity of his first-half struggles, but it's possible we will never see the magic of 2015 again from Keuchel.
McHugh and Keuchel were both breakout pitchers of 2014, but while Keuchel continued to improve performance last season, the bottom fell out of McHugh's stat line. Things have remained a struggle for McHugh in 2016; in fact, they've gotten worse for the right-hander. McHugh has been hit hard and often this season, resulting in the highest full-season ERA and WHIP of his career. McHugh has the
(Stats through July 6.)
Houston Astros
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 18 | 113 | 6 | 5.02 | 1.4 | 99 |
Keuchel has been one of the most disappointing pitchers of the first half, and his season-long slump shows little sign of turning around. June was his best month, yet he still got hit for a 4.30 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Last year's Cy Young came out of the blue, but he must have a fairy godmother because he turned back into a pumpkin as soon as the clock struck midnight on his 2015 season. He might avoid the severity of his first-half struggles, but it's possible we will never see the magic of 2015 again from Keuchel.
Grade: D
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 96 | 5 | 4.5 | 1.21 | 63 |
McHugh and Keuchel were both breakout pitchers of 2014, but while Keuchel continued to improve performance last season, the bottom fell out of McHugh's stat line. Things have remained a struggle for McHugh in 2016; in fact, they've gotten worse for the right-hander. McHugh has been hit hard and often this season, resulting in the highest full-season ERA and WHIP of his career. McHugh has the
Our trek through the first-half pitching performances of 2016 heads westward, where some of the division's best pitchers have been rocked through the first half of the season. Just as in the previous editions of this series, the grades reflect first-half performance relative to the player's cost on draft day.
Keuchel has been one of the most disappointing pitchers of the first half, and his season-long slump shows little sign of turning around. June was his best month, yet he still got hit for a 4.30 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Last year's Cy Young came out of the blue, but he must have a fairy godmother because he turned back into a pumpkin as soon as the clock struck midnight on his 2015 season. He might avoid the severity of his first-half struggles, but it's possible we will never see the magic of 2015 again from Keuchel.
McHugh and Keuchel were both breakout pitchers of 2014, but while Keuchel continued to improve performance last season, the bottom fell out of McHugh's stat line. Things have remained a struggle for McHugh in 2016; in fact, they've gotten worse for the right-hander. McHugh has been hit hard and often this season, resulting in the highest full-season ERA and WHIP of his career. McHugh has the baseline skills to succeed in this league, but he has spent the last 15 months convincing us that he doesn't belong at the highest level.
McCullers got a late start to the season, not making his first start of the 2016 campaign until mid-May. His excellent strikeout rate of last season has carried over, but through his first nine starts of this year the walks have been a major problem. He has given away 30 free passes this season, including three-plus walks in each of his first eight starts. The strikeout upside will carry his intrigue in the second half, and the injury delay to this season actually adds a dose of optimism that he can turn things around in the second half. The stuff is awesome, but the command has been wavering, and he will have to address the latter to ascend to his rightful place at the top of the Houston rotation. His stat line has been spared due to just one home run allowed, but he will need to fix the walks before the homers start dropping over the wall.
Fister has kept the runs at bay this season, but with a perpetually low strikeout rate he carries a huge risk of implosion. His ratios have been strong this season, but he walks a fine line due to a low-K approach that is vulnerable to the unpredictability of balls in play. His peripherals could stay the same and his ERA would likely skyrocket, as the mix of hits, walks and homers are destined to come back and bite him.
Shoemaker has turned a corner this season, altering his approach to become a strikeout maven. His season was heading nowhere fast, with an ERA of 8.50 in mid-May, but then he started throwing splitters at double the frequency and all of the sudden his strikeouts started leaping off the page. The split has long been his best pitch, but the altered approach of featuring the split has done wonders for his performance, and though his first half was a tale of two seasons, I am optimistic that his second half will be more similar to the last six weeks of dominance than his first six weeks of getting lit like a Christmas tree.
Santiago started the season strong, taking the approach of a reliever into the starting rotation and reaping the dividends with higher velocity and additional strikeouts. It didn't last long, and by May the velo was back down as were the strikeouts. It has been a season mostly full of turmoil since, and trusting Santiago is a dicey proposition for the second half.
Weaver has the ability to walk between the raindrops on occasion, particularly when pitching at home where Pride Rock can obscure his release point, but his pitch speed has fallen into Jamie Moyer territory and opposing batters are teeing off, with more than 10 hits per nine innings and nearly two homers per nine. Avoid him at all costs.
Tropeano was recently recalled for his second stint this season as a member of the Halo rotation. He gets strikeouts but the walks can get out of hand, wrecking his WHIP and leaving him at the mercy of big innings. Tropeano is a good option for spot starts, depending on the opponent, but he is likely to bring a volatile stat line to the table.
Gray has recovered from his May meltdown, but the current iteration falls short of the run-prevention maven that roamed the Oakland rotation of the last couple years. He has been a low-strikeout option his entire career at the highest level, but he made up the difference in the other three categories. Pitchers who excel despite a low K rate are the exception, not the rule, and his struggles through the first half of 2016 represent the downside of a pitcher who specializes in weak contact. The Oakland offense is not much of a buffer for his win totals, so at best we are talking about a 2.5-category pitcher whose name value exceeds his fantasy value.
There was a point, late in spring training, when Hill's inability to hit targets of any kind left open the question of whether he would even make the Opening day Rotation. He righted the ship in a big way, reminding the world of his incredible September 2015 and penchant for 10-K outings. He just got back from an injured hamstring, an ailment that restricted his first-half innings and made a dent in his grade. But now that he's back in the fold, Hill is ready to lead the Oakland rotation with solid ratios and an excellent strikeout rate. It's a good buy opportunity for a southpaw with the insane curveball, as the injury limited his innings and his owners might have lost sight of his impact.
Graveman's main use is as a groundball machine who keeps the ball in the yard, but thus far in 2016, opposing hitters have had no trouble lifting his pitches over the wall or knocking them for base hits. He offers little in the way of fantasy value, offering only false hope and the desire for something more.
Rookies are volatile, and Manaea is no exception. The left-hander has been erratic throughout both the majors and minors, compromising his solid stuff and jeopardizing his spot in the Oakland rotation. He's given up more than a hit per inning this season and struck out just 7.2 batters per nine frames. He could represent a good value in next year's fantasy drafts if he can utilize the second half of 2016 to home his craft, but there are likely to be plenty of peaks and valleys in Manaea's performance in the latter half of 2016.
Felix has missed the last six weeks with an injured calf, but he is nearing a return and should be good to go for the second half of the season. He exhibited stingy run prevention over the first two months of the season, but the peripherals paint their turn of a pitcher in trouble. He walked 3.7 batters per nine innings, which would want qualify as the highest rate of his career if it were to persist over the full season. The strikeout rate of 7.6 K/9 would also qualify as a career low, and the only thing sparing his stat line was a low hit rate. With diminished velocity and compromised command, King Felix could be on the verge of catastrophe, that is unless he comes back from the calf injury having made critical adjustments to recapture his greatness of old.
The inconsistency that plagued Walker's 2015 season has carried over into this year, but his current 3.66 ERA is supported by an incredible K:BB ratio of 82:18 in 86 frames, adding a dose of optimism to his prospects to sustain an impact second half. He needs to get healthy, though. A recent foot injury has limtied his effectivenes, and he was placed on the disabled list this week. Walker has the upside to lead the Mariners even if King Felix falters, though his past volatility is an albatross hanging from his neck until he can prove that his strike-zone efficiency translates into consistent run prevention at the major league level.
Iwakuma entered this season with physical questions about his shoulder, statistical questions about his K rate and doubts hovering above his ability to hold down a rotation spot. The walks are still low and he leads the Mariners in innings and starts, but Iwakuma has given up a plethora of homers and other hits, meaning that his below-par ratios have had a significant impact to fantasy managers due to the high degree of playing time. He can be an asset to a team's ratios if gamers are selective about his spot starts, but the risk of implosion is palpable.
Paxton has a decent strikeout rate, but he has given up an astronomical 56 hits in 40.1 innings and has faced enough batters to create a disparity between his per-nine ratios and his percent frequency, casting doubt as to how much of the current K rate will hold true in the second half of the season. As a pitcher who relies on deception and has only made a handful of starts this season, Paxton could be ousted in quick order if increased exposure foils his approach.
Karns is an asset in the strikeout department but little else, and the lack of pitch command recently got him ousted from the starting rotation. He carries some intrigue should he win his job back, but Karns is an afterthought out of the bullpen.
Hamels has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball the last 10 years. He is continuing the trend with a 2.93 ERA this season, but the peripheral numbers are not nearly so promising, including a career-high walk rate of 3.4 BB/9 and his highest career frequency of home runs in a single season. This puts him in a similar category as Felix Hernandez, as a pitcher with an impeccable track record that stretches over a decade of dominance and who has continued his impressive run prevention despite peripheral stats that are heading sharply in the wrong direction.
Darvish was back in action for just three starts before he was reclaimed by the disabled list, he flashed the incredible upside that once made him one of the top pitchers in the game. The velocity was intact, the insane slider was back making major league hitters look foolish, and he gave every indication that Darvish could pick up right where he left off. However, the recurrence of injury clouds his status for the second half, and I expect him to be effective so long as he's on the mound, but the Rangers might be careful with his workload and ease him back into action.
Perez has been a stud in leagues that count quality starts, but his ERA has been the only categorical asset in most fantasy leagues this season. That ERA is unsustainable on the heels of a 1.42 WHIP and paltry 4.4 K/9, with enough walks to bring his K/BB ratio dangerously close to 1.0 and the real risk of complete implosion in the second half. His last start -- 4 IP, 9 H, 11 R, 7 ER -- could be a sign of things to come.
Griffin has been a revelation this season, stepping into the Rangers' rotation to beat his peripherals into a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. His low hit rate will come home to roost, and if his walk rate stays high while the hit rate regresses then the ERA likely will explode.
(Stats through July 6.)
Houston Astros
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 18 | 113 | 6 | 5.02 | 1.4 | 99 |
Keuchel has been one of the most disappointing pitchers of the first half, and his season-long slump shows little sign of turning around. June was his best month, yet he still got hit for a 4.30 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. Last year's Cy Young came out of the blue, but he must have a fairy godmother because he turned back into a pumpkin as soon as the clock struck midnight on his 2015 season. He might avoid the severity of his first-half struggles, but it's possible we will never see the magic of 2015 again from Keuchel.
Grade: D
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 96 | 5 | 4.5 | 1.21 | 63 |
McHugh and Keuchel were both breakout pitchers of 2014, but while Keuchel continued to improve performance last season, the bottom fell out of McHugh's stat line. Things have remained a struggle for McHugh in 2016; in fact, they've gotten worse for the right-hander. McHugh has been hit hard and often this season, resulting in the highest full-season ERA and WHIP of his career. McHugh has the baseline skills to succeed in this league, but he has spent the last 15 months convincing us that he doesn't belong at the highest level.
Grade: D
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 9 | 53 | 4 | 3.57 | 1.57 | 66 |
McCullers got a late start to the season, not making his first start of the 2016 campaign until mid-May. His excellent strikeout rate of last season has carried over, but through his first nine starts of this year the walks have been a major problem. He has given away 30 free passes this season, including three-plus walks in each of his first eight starts. The strikeout upside will carry his intrigue in the second half, and the injury delay to this season actually adds a dose of optimism that he can turn things around in the second half. The stuff is awesome, but the command has been wavering, and he will have to address the latter to ascend to his rightful place at the top of the Houston rotation. His stat line has been spared due to just one home run allowed, but he will need to fix the walks before the homers start dropping over the wall.
Grade: C
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 16 | 98.1 | 8 | 3.66 | 1.28 | 64 |
Fister has kept the runs at bay this season, but with a perpetually low strikeout rate he carries a huge risk of implosion. His ratios have been strong this season, but he walks a fine line due to a low-K approach that is vulnerable to the unpredictability of balls in play. His peripherals could stay the same and his ERA would likely skyrocket, as the mix of hits, walks and homers are destined to come back and bite him.
Grade: C+
Los Angeles Angels
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 16 | 92 | 3 | 4.40 | 1.32 | 93 |
Shoemaker has turned a corner this season, altering his approach to become a strikeout maven. His season was heading nowhere fast, with an ERA of 8.50 in mid-May, but then he started throwing splitters at double the frequency and all of the sudden his strikeouts started leaping off the page. The split has long been his best pitch, but the altered approach of featuring the split has done wonders for his performance, and though his first half was a tale of two seasons, I am optimistic that his second half will be more similar to the last six weeks of dominance than his first six weeks of getting lit like a Christmas tree.
Grade: B-
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 91.1 | 5 | 4.93 | 1.34 | 77 |
Santiago started the season strong, taking the approach of a reliever into the starting rotation and reaping the dividends with higher velocity and additional strikeouts. It didn't last long, and by May the velo was back down as were the strikeouts. It has been a season mostly full of turmoil since, and trusting Santiago is a dicey proposition for the second half.
Grade: D
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 100.2 | 7 | 5.27 | 1.44 | 59 |
Weaver has the ability to walk between the raindrops on occasion, particularly when pitching at home where Pride Rock can obscure his release point, but his pitch speed has fallen into Jamie Moyer territory and opposing batters are teeing off, with more than 10 hits per nine innings and nearly two homers per nine. Avoid him at all costs.
Grade: F
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 11 | 60.1 | 3 | 3.28 | 1.51 | 58 |
Tropeano was recently recalled for his second stint this season as a member of the Halo rotation. He gets strikeouts but the walks can get out of hand, wrecking his WHIP and leaving him at the mercy of big innings. Tropeano is a good option for spot starts, depending on the opponent, but he is likely to bring a volatile stat line to the table.
Grade: Incomplete
Oakland Athletics
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 16 | 90.2 | 3 | 5.16 | 1.47 | 72 |
Gray has recovered from his May meltdown, but the current iteration falls short of the run-prevention maven that roamed the Oakland rotation of the last couple years. He has been a low-strikeout option his entire career at the highest level, but he made up the difference in the other three categories. Pitchers who excel despite a low K rate are the exception, not the rule, and his struggles through the first half of 2016 represent the downside of a pitcher who specializes in weak contact. The Oakland offense is not much of a buffer for his win totals, so at best we are talking about a 2.5-category pitcher whose name value exceeds his fantasy value.
Grade: D-
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 12 | 70 | 8 | 2.31 | 1.11 | 80 |
There was a point, late in spring training, when Hill's inability to hit targets of any kind left open the question of whether he would even make the Opening day Rotation. He righted the ship in a big way, reminding the world of his incredible September 2015 and penchant for 10-K outings. He just got back from an injured hamstring, an ailment that restricted his first-half innings and made a dent in his grade. But now that he's back in the fold, Hill is ready to lead the Oakland rotation with solid ratios and an excellent strikeout rate. It's a good buy opportunity for a southpaw with the insane curveball, as the injury limited his innings and his owners might have lost sight of his impact.
Grade: B
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 16 | 86.2 | 4 | 4.57 | 1.50 | 58 |
Graveman's main use is as a groundball machine who keeps the ball in the yard, but thus far in 2016, opposing hitters have had no trouble lifting his pitches over the wall or knocking them for base hits. He offers little in the way of fantasy value, offering only false hope and the desire for something more.
Grade: D
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 10 | 60 | 3 | 5.85 | 1.50 | 49 |
Rookies are volatile, and Manaea is no exception. The left-hander has been erratic throughout both the majors and minors, compromising his solid stuff and jeopardizing his spot in the Oakland rotation. He's given up more than a hit per inning this season and struck out just 7.2 batters per nine frames. He could represent a good value in next year's fantasy drafts if he can utilize the second half of 2016 to home his craft, but there are likely to be plenty of peaks and valleys in Manaea's performance in the latter half of 2016.
Grade: C-
Seattle Mariners
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 10 | 63 | 4 | 2.86 | 1.22 | 53 |
Felix has missed the last six weeks with an injured calf, but he is nearing a return and should be good to go for the second half of the season. He exhibited stingy run prevention over the first two months of the season, but the peripherals paint their turn of a pitcher in trouble. He walked 3.7 batters per nine innings, which would want qualify as the highest rate of his career if it were to persist over the full season. The strikeout rate of 7.6 K/9 would also qualify as a career low, and the only thing sparing his stat line was a low hit rate. With diminished velocity and compromised command, King Felix could be on the verge of catastrophe, that is unless he comes back from the calf injury having made critical adjustments to recapture his greatness of old.
Grade: C+
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 16 | 86 | 4 | 3.66 | 1.14 | 80 |
The inconsistency that plagued Walker's 2015 season has carried over into this year, but his current 3.66 ERA is supported by an incredible K:BB ratio of 82:18 in 86 frames, adding a dose of optimism to his prospects to sustain an impact second half. He needs to get healthy, though. A recent foot injury has limtied his effectivenes, and he was placed on the disabled list this week. Walker has the upside to lead the Mariners even if King Felix falters, though his past volatility is an albatross hanging from his neck until he can prove that his strike-zone efficiency translates into consistent run prevention at the major league level.
Grade: B+
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 107.2 | 8 | 4.43 | 1.35 | 77 |
Iwakuma entered this season with physical questions about his shoulder, statistical questions about his K rate and doubts hovering above his ability to hold down a rotation spot. The walks are still low and he leads the Mariners in innings and starts, but Iwakuma has given up a plethora of homers and other hits, meaning that his below-par ratios have had a significant impact to fantasy managers due to the high degree of playing time. He can be an asset to a team's ratios if gamers are selective about his spot starts, but the risk of implosion is palpable.
Grade: C-
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 7 | 40.1 | 2 | 4.24 | 1.71 | 43 |
Paxton has a decent strikeout rate, but he has given up an astronomical 56 hits in 40.1 innings and has faced enough batters to create a disparity between his per-nine ratios and his percent frequency, casting doubt as to how much of the current K rate will hold true in the second half of the season. As a pitcher who relies on deception and has only made a handful of starts this season, Paxton could be ousted in quick order if increased exposure foils his approach.
Grade: Incomplete
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 15 | 86 | 6 | 4.50 | 1.43 | 92 |
Karns is an asset in the strikeout department but little else, and the lack of pitch command recently got him ousted from the starting rotation. He carries some intrigue should he win his job back, but Karns is an afterthought out of the bullpen.
Grade: C-
Texas Rangers
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 17 | 107.2 | 9 | 2.93 | 1.28 | 105 |
Hamels has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball the last 10 years. He is continuing the trend with a 2.93 ERA this season, but the peripheral numbers are not nearly so promising, including a career-high walk rate of 3.4 BB/9 and his highest career frequency of home runs in a single season. This puts him in a similar category as Felix Hernandez, as a pitcher with an impeccable track record that stretches over a decade of dominance and who has continued his impressive run prevention despite peripheral stats that are heading sharply in the wrong direction.
Grade: B
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 3 | 15.2 | 2 | 2.87 | 1.15 | 19 |
Darvish was back in action for just three starts before he was reclaimed by the disabled list, he flashed the incredible upside that once made him one of the top pitchers in the game. The velocity was intact, the insane slider was back making major league hitters look foolish, and he gave every indication that Darvish could pick up right where he left off. However, the recurrence of injury clouds his status for the second half, and I expect him to be effective so long as he's on the mound, but the Rangers might be careful with his workload and ease him back into action.
Grade: Incomplete
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 18 | 107.2 | 7 | 3.85 | 1.42 | 52 |
Perez has been a stud in leagues that count quality starts, but his ERA has been the only categorical asset in most fantasy leagues this season. That ERA is unsustainable on the heels of a 1.42 WHIP and paltry 4.4 K/9, with enough walks to bring his K/BB ratio dangerously close to 1.0 and the real risk of complete implosion in the second half. His last start -- 4 IP, 9 H, 11 R, 7 ER -- could be a sign of things to come.
Grade: C+
| GS | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | K |
| 9 | 47 | 3 | 3.06 | 1.21 | 45 |
Griffin has been a revelation this season, stepping into the Rangers' rotation to beat his peripherals into a sub-3.00 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning. His low hit rate will come home to roost, and if his walk rate stays high while the hit rate regresses then the ERA likely will explode.
Grade: B-
