DFS Baseball 101: Finding Value Pitchers on DraftKings

Last week I wrote up value hitters on FanDuel and hopefully you took advantage of the recommended players as a lot of them had hot weeks. One of the challenges in daily fantasy baseball is figuring out who your second pitcher is going to be on DraftKings. It is very easy to try and fit in two pitchers that are over $12,000, but it leaves you with very little for hitting. So, the challenge is knowing when starting pitchers in the $10,000 range or less are in optimal situations.

DraftKings pricing is dynamic and very sharp so you have to take some risk when digging for your second pitcher.

You might have to take a pitcher who has gotten bombed in his last few outings. But look at who that pitcher faced – was it at Baltimore and at Boston, and now the Rays pitcher is back home (Jake Odorizzi) facing a weak lineup like the White Sox?

Here are some other criteria:

• Pitcher who is middle-of-the road but has a great matchup against a team that strikes out a ton or struggles against right-handers (Mike Leake vs. MIL and SD).

• Pitcher who is on the road, but struggles at home so they come at a great price (Tyler Chatwood).

• Starting pitcher who is recently moved into the rotation from the bullpen, minors or back from injury. (Danny Duffy)

Basically, you need pitchers who are in a scenario that is optimal and in a position to outperform their salary.

Here are some pitchers that I have recently targeted on DraftKings based on their price:

Michael Pineda, Yankees – Pineda has given DFS players fits this year because overall his statistics have been great, but home runs have been an issue. From May 22 to July 25, he has struck out 85 and walked 17 in just 69.2 innings, but with a 4.00 ERA. His DraftKings salary has been in the $6500-$8500 range with the exception of one game against the White Sox.

Look at his recent DraftKings logs:

7/25 – 29.55
7/20 – 29.30
7/15 – 9.65 (Red Sox)
7/6 – 8.70
6/30 – 32.50
6/25 – 25.70
6/18 – 20.40
6/12 – 20.70
6/7 – 18.15
6/2 – 22.55

He has only had two bad games in ten starts with a very reasonable salary. I would expect his price to jump next time out, but if you can still get him at under $10,000, he is worth a look depending on the matchup.

Adam Conley, Marlins – Conley has struggled this year getting through the fifth inning, but has started to turn it on in the last seven weeks. He has put up four 20+ point starts, and two additional starts of at least 16 points. The key in a value-pitcher is you want to avoid disaster, while at least getting a floor of 15 points. His salary range has been $5300-$9400, so you might not get him at much of a discount moving forward, but is still another guy worth starting if you can get him under $10,000.

Conley's game logs:

7/22 - 10.70
7/17 – 22.40
7/9 – 23.75
7/3 – 17.30
6/28 – 12.95
6/22 – 26.40
6/17 – 16.55
6/12 – (1.95)
6/7 – 21.40
6/1 – 28.50

Sean Manaea, A's – A highly touted prospect that was part of the Ben Zobrist trade, Manaea came up earlier in the season with a lot of fanfare. He proceeded to get bombed in his first six starts to the tune of 7.03 ERA. But then the light bulb went on starting June 1 and he's been good ever since. The key with Manaea is to start him at home, because the splits are extreme. Since June 1, he has had five home starts (29 IP, 28 K, 5 BB, 1.55 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) and three road starts (5.21 ERA). His DraftKings salary has ranged from $6000-$7700 so there is plenty of value there.

Matt Shoemaker, Angels – Shoemaker is another pitcher with a tale of two seasons. Look at these numbers from April 8 - May 16. (8.49 ERA, 1.85 WHIP, 2.1 HR/9). Now from May 21 - July 22, he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball because of an increased emphasis on his splitter. How about these stats (83 IP, 93 K, 10 BB, 2.39 ERA, 1.02 WHIP)? And he's been even better at home (45.2 IP, 61 K, 2 BB, 0.79 ERA, 0.79 WHIP). His DraftKings salary has ranged from $4,700-$10,300 so he still is in that $10K range you need to make it work.

Anthony DeSclafani, Reds – The Reds stole DeScalafani from the Marlins in a trade for Mat Latos, and he was solid in 2015. Coming into the season, he was atop many a sleeper list, but then got derailed with an oblique injury. He finally came back on June 10 with not much fanfare against Oakland and went six innings. DeScalafani followed that up with a 2.2-inning outing against the Braves.

But since June 21 here is his line: 46.2 IP, 42 K, 5 BB, 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP. His numbers at home are even stronger, so keep that in mind. His DraftKings salary range has been $7400-$9700 so keep an eye on his current price -- especially on the road.