Farm Futures: South Atlantic League Hitters Roundup

With the draft in the rear view mirror, it's time to get back to analyzing prospects that have been performing all season in the minors. I specifically had an itch to check in on what some of the game's younger talent has been up to. Everyone always wants to know when guys at Double-A and Triple-A are going to get the call to the majors, and I don't mind trying to answer those questions in the comments section. However, my favorite prospects to discuss will always be those who are three or four years away from the big leagues, as we can just enjoy dreaming about what kind of players they could become without predicting their call-up dates or accepting the sad realities of their flaws. To that end, we'll take our first tour of the South Atlantic League (Sally League) this season to see what some Low-A hitters have been up to, including two prospects who found themselves ranked in the top 10 on the latest update of the top 200 prospect rankings.

Victor Robles, OF, Hagerstown (Nationals): .309/.410/.452, five HR, four 3B, eight 2B, 18-for-25 on SB attempts, 34:17 K:BB in 217 AB.

Brendan Rodgers, SS, Asheville (Rockies): .291/.354/.484, nine HR, zero 3B, 16 2B, 2-for-4 on SB attempts, 45:17 K:BB in 223 AB.

Robles ranked eighth and Rodgers ranked ninth on the updated top 200, and it's essentially a toss up as to which player is the better dynasty league asset. One thing is clear however. They both have the potential to be first round fantasy picks in their prime years.

I gave Robles the edge because he's going to be a five-category force in the mold of Andrew McCutchen, which I value over a four-category contributor at a more scarce position. In addition, Robles is nine months younger than Rodgers and still boasts a superior approach while playing in a less favorable home ballpark. Rodgers has the edge in the power department, but Robles has the edge everywhere else. Robles would be my pick for the best hit tool in the minor leagues, and with plus speed and at least solid-average power, he has the look of a future superstar. For dynasty league owners who are rebuilding, Robles is the type of player who can be built around, although it will be at least two or three years before he's ready to contribute at the major league level.

Rodgers, like many Rockies prospects before him, has really taken advantage of the favorable hitting conditions at Asheville, as he is hitting just .248/.308/.385 on the road this season. Still, as a Rockies prospect, favorable hitting conditions will be a part of the equation even once he reaches the big leagues. The selling point with him has always been the potential for 25-plus homers at the shortstop position, with the added batting average boost that comes with playing 81 games a year in Coors Field. He won't offer any speed, and the batting average could end up being closer to .270 than .300, but shortstops who hit in the middle of a big league lineup are a rare breed. Rodgers has played 13 games at second base this season, but that is likely just due to the fact that there are three other players on the Asheville roster who are getting reps at shortstop. The most impressive aspect of his campaign to date is that he's striking out at just an 18.3 percent clip as a 19-year-old slugger in full season ball. That really firms up his long-term floor, and suggests he might not need to repeat any of the levels as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Josh Naylor, 1B, Greensboro (Marlins): .256/.320/.426, seven HR, two 3B, 13 2B, 9-for-11 on SB attempts, 40:19 K:BB in 223 AB.

Naylor having nine steals through 58 games really illustrates how meaningless stolen base totals in the lower levels of the minors can be. He's clearly a bit more nimble than advertised, but this is still a first base-only slugger who shouldn't have more than 30-grade speed when he reaches the majors. That said, dynasty league owners didn't draft Naylor for his speed. They drafted him for his bat, and he has really put it to work nicely for someone who turned 19 on June 22. Like with Rodgers, the fact that Naylor has a 16.4 percent K-rate as a teenager in a full-season league suggests he won't face major contact hurdles as he progresses through the Marlins' system. His ability to get his plus power into games already without compromising his approach makes him a top five prospect at first base.

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, West Virginia (Pirates): .269/.325/.399, six HR, zero 3B, nine 2B, 6-for-10 on SB attempts, 42:13 K:BB in 208 AB.

This is a pretty common theme, but teenagers who can control the strike zone at Low-A and project to have an above average hit tool and above average power are pretty appealing. The son of former big leaguer Charlie Hayes, Ke'Bryan's hit tool is a little ahead of his power at present, but his six homers still represent a bit more pop than I was expecting from him at this stage in the season. That said, at six-foot-one, 210 pounds, I think Hayes could offer 25-plus homer power in his prime which gives him the upside of a top 10 third baseman down the road. The Pirates are an excellent developmental organization, which adds another layer of safety relative to some other players with similar profiles.

Josh Ockimey, 1B, Greenville (Red Sox): .297/.435/.531, 10 HR, one 3B, 17 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 61:52 K:BB in 209 AB.

Ockimey was on the radar coming into the season but has shattered all expectations to this point and is now a borderline top 100 prospect for dynasty leagues. A fifth round pick in 2014, Ockimey has a career-best 23.3 percent K-rate and he leads the league with 52 walks thanks to an absurd 19.8 percent walk rate. He's a tad older than we'd like hitting prospects to be in Low-A, as he'll turn 21 in October, but he's still a very legit prospect. As a first baseman he'll have to continue to hit at every stop to remain viable, but now is the time to scoop him up if he's still available in dynasty leagues. Look for him to be promoted to High-A sometime this summer, as it's clear he has the edge over Sally League pitchers.

Austin Riley, 3B, Rome (Braves): .252/.299/.372, three HR, one 3B, 18 2B, 2-for-4 on SB attempts, 86:17 K:BB in 242 AB.

Riley's owners are no doubt frustrated by how much he has struggled in his first crack at Low-A, but he still has some of the best raw power from last year's draft class. He turned 19 just before the start of the season so even if he has to repeat the level next year, he could do what Ockimey has done as a 20-year-old this season and re-establish himself as a top 100 prospect for dynasty leagues. In fact, if he has a solid second half he could even finish the season back in the top 100. His 86 strikeouts are the third most in the league and second most among players who have not yet been demoted, but a 32.6 percent K-rate is not a death sentence for a player his age with his raw power. It is too soon to drop Riley in leagues where 150 prospects are rostered, and it wouldn't be a bad idea to try to buy low in leagues where 200-plus prospects are owned. This is all part of the developmental process.

Lucius Fox, SS, Augusta (Giants): .210/.303/.301, two HR, three 3B, four 2B, 15-for-20 on SB attempts, 48:23 K:BB in 176 AB.

Fox is among the youngest players in the league as the Giants aggressively assigned him to Low-A in his first full season after being one of the top prizes in last year's July 2 international signing period. The good news is that Fox has shown a solid approach for someone who, on average, is facing pitchers who are over three years his senior. The bad news is that he is rarely driving the ball with just nine extra-base hits in 46 games. He has 19 errors this season and it remains to be seen if he will be able to stick at shortstop long term. His value would take a legitimate hit if he moved to center field, but the fact that he has not played any other position besides shortstop and does not turn 19 until July 2 suggests there is a solid chance he can make it work at the six spot. There will be peaks and valleys along the way for Fox, but his potential as a five-category contributor at shortstop keeps him firmly in the top 200 despite unimpressive numbers in 2016.

Luis Alexander Basabe, OF, Greenville (Red Sox): .222/.293/.397, five HR, five 3B, nine 2B, 9-for-9 on SB attempts, 64:20 K:BB in 194 AB.

One of the toolsiest players in the league, Basabe's slash line leaves a lot to be desired but the long-term potential remains very intriguing. There is 20/20 upside here, although even Basabe's most fervent believers will acknowledge it's unlikely he'll ever hit for a high average. This is the kind of player who could jump or drop 50 spots in the top 200 over the rest of the season depending on whether he makes the necessary adjustments at the plate.

Ryan Mountcastle, SS, Delmarva (Orioles): .297/.362/.450, five HR, two 3B, 13 2B, 3-for-7 on SB attempts, 46:21 K:BB in 209 AB.

Few fanbases understand the perils of believing in prospects in the lower levels like Orioles fans, so it is nice whenever one of their prospects exceeds expectations. Mountcastle is certainly doing that, as he has shown solid power with a strong approach for a 19-year-old at Low-A. It remains to be seen if he will stick at shortstop, but there are some strong indicators that he will continue to hit as he rises through the ranks. He has a good chance to finish the season as a top 200 prospect for dynasty leagues.

Yeyson Yrizarri, SS, Hickory (Rangers): .257/.278/.383, four HR, one 3B, 13 2B, 13-for-22 on SB attempts, 44:5 K:BB in 214 AB.

The Rangers love tools and for that I love the Rangers. Yrizarri needs to walk more, but at Low-A it's not the end of the world if he's still in the "see ball, hit ball" stage of his development. At six feet tall and 175 pounds it would be nice if he bulked up a little in the coming years, but he's already capable of driving the ball with some authority. He has a power/speed combination that is rare at the shortstop position, but he's still learning the game. This isn't a guy who needs to be owned just yet in dynasty leagues but it would be wise to keep tabs on him in case it starts to look like he's in the process of making a developmental leap.

Jose Pujols, OF, Lakewood (Phillies): .233/.280/.440, 13 HR, two 3B, 10 2B, 5-for-6 on SB attempts, 94:16 K:BB in 257 AB.

Pujols leads all Sally Leaguers in home runs (13) and strikeouts (94), so the pros and cons are quite obvious. Right now he's guessing quite a bit at the plate, but it's clear the power is real. At six-foot-three, 175 pounds, he still has plenty of filling out to do. He's 20 and probably won't reach Double-A until he's 22, which is fine as power hitters often take a while to figure it all out. There is a lot of boom or bust potential here, but he has as much upside as any of the players in the Sally League who are not quite top 200 prospects yet.

Anfernee Seymour, SS, Greensboro (Marlins): .283/.327/.332, one HR, two 3B, six 2B, 27-for-37 on SB attempts, 58:16 K:BB in 265 AB.

Seymour was drafted as an outfielder in the seventh round of the 2014 draft but he has only played shortstop this season, as the Marlins are trying to find a home for his plus arm. He has big-time speed and is possibly the fastest player in the league, but there have always been questions about whether he would hit enough to get that speed to play in games. Seymour is about to turn 21 on June 24, so the fact that he is holding his own in his first year at Low-A doesn't quite eliminate those concerns, but it's a good step. The true test will come when Seymour gets to Double-A in a couple years, but his speed at shortstop is more than enough to place him among the top five prospects in a weak Marlins system.

Chris Gittens, 1B, Charleston (Yankees): .262/.376/.500, 12 HR, zero 3B, 15 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 77:36 K:BB in 214 AB.

Yes, Gittens is 22 and it's therefore a little tricky to fully buy into his numbers at Low-A, but the power is very real. In fact he has more raw power than organization-mate Aaron Judge, and he's only a year behind Judge's pace through the organization. He may be three or four years away from the big leagues and he could end up at DH, but the power and on-base skills are special enough to start paying attention to him in deeper dynasty leagues.

Luis Alejandro Basabe, 2B, Greenville (Red Sox): .313/.414/.467, three HR, three 3B, 13 2B, 13-for-19 on SB attempts, 43:28 K:BB in 182 AB.

The twin brother of the more famous Luis Alexander Basabe has fewer impact tools but has been a far more productive hitter thus far in Sally League play. He is two inches shorter than his brother and is already playing more at second base than shortstop, while his brother is pegged for center field, so it's easy to see why he gets overlooked. Any 19-year-old that can put up these numbers at Low-A deserves notice, though. Second base prospects in the lower levels don't usually get pumped up on real life prospect rankings but for fantasy purposes, second basemen are only slightly less appealing than shortstops. The other Basabe may have the higher ceiling, but the keystone twin is establishing a pretty solid floor so far in 2016.

OTHERS OF NOTE:

Eric Jenkins, OF, Hickory (Rangers): .219/.282/.319, three HR, five 3B, six 2B, 33-for-41 on SB attempts, 77:21 K:BB in 251 AB.

Isael Soto, OF, Greensboro (Marlins): .226/.313/.375, four HR, three 3B, seven 2B, 3-for-3 on SB attempts, 44:21 K:BB in 168 AB.

D.J. Stewart, OF, Delmarva (Orioles): .230/.366/.352, four HR, one 3B, 12 2B, 16-for-22 on SB attempts, 58:42 K:BB in 213 AB.

Alex Murphy, C/1B, Delmarva (Orioles): .249/.320/.448, 12 HR, one 3B, 10 2B, 69:25 K:BB in 241 AB.

Kyle Holder, SS/2B, Charleston (Yankees): .253/.280/.301, zero HR, two 3B, five 2B, 4-for-8 on SB attempts, 27:7 K:BB in 186 AB.

Ti'Quan Forbes, 3B, Hickory (Rangers): .239/.299/.289, one HR, zero 3B, seven 2B, 2-for-5 on SB attempts, 48:13 K:BB in 201 AB.

Marten Gasparini, SS, Lexington (Royals): .188/.251/.319, five HR, one 3B, eight 2B, 8-for-13 on SB attempts, 74:16 K:BB in 191 AB.

Tito Polo, OF, West Virginia (Pirates): .302/.368/.551, 12 HR, three 3B, 14 2B, 20-for-30 on SB attempts, 47:13 K:BB in 225 AB.