Farm Futures: MiLB Hitter Awards

With a week remaining in the minor league season, it's time to hand out some hardware to the prospects who stood out the most in full-season leagues. These awards were given to prospects who had enough plate appearances (2.7 PA per team game) at one level of the minor leagues to qualify for league leader boards. Players who have made it to the big leagues were not considered for the awards, even if they qualified. A player winning the "Most Impressive" award doesn't necessarily mean that they are the most valuable dynasty league prospect at that specific level, it simply means that prospect had the most impressive season. The same logic applies for the "Most Improved" and "Most Disappointing" awards.

Triple-A

Most Impressive: Dan Vogelbach (Mariners)

I've talked a lot about Vogelbach in this space in recent weeks so there's no need to go into too much detail. He's slashing .293/.417/.502 with 21 homers and a 96:92 K:BB through 128 games splitting time between Iowa and Tacoma in the Cubs and Mariners systems respectively, neither of which features a drastic hitting environment. This would have been Joey Gallo's award if he had kept up his first half pace, but he's hitting .226 with 69 strikeouts in 37 second half games.

Most Improved: Hunter Dozier (Royals)

Dozier's re-emergence as a legitimate prospect is an excellent story, as it seemed reasonable to write him off a year ago after he seemed to have proven himself incapable of handling Double-A pitching. Obviously a recently turned 25-year-old posting a .876 OPS with 15 home runs over 100 games in the Pacific Coast League doesn't necessarily mean he won't end up settling in as a Quadruple-A hitter long term. But it is a far sight more encouraging than when he posted an OPS under .625 across 192 games at Double-A between 2014 and 2015. I don't think he's a top 200 prospect, but one could reasonably argue otherwise and at the very least he's now a player to be aware of in deeper single-season leagues in 2017. Dozier's teammate Jorge Bonifacio and Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo were also strong candidates for this honor.

Biggest Disappointment: Matt Olson (A's)

Olson was a well above average hitter in every one of his four previous minor league seasons and then this year, when he finally played half his games in a neutral hitting environment (Nashville), he posted a 98 wRC+ and career-low .416 slugging percentage. He has been transitioned from first base to right field, which lowers his required offensive production slightly, but it's still hard to see him profiling as an everyday player. The two things working in his favor are a decent approach (24.7 percent K-rate, 13.2 percent BB-rate) and the fact that he will be 23 years old for the entire 2017 season, which is still relatively young for a Triple-A hitter. However his unimpressive 2016 numbers and a deeper look at where he was playing when he posted big numbers in previous seasons led to him being dropped in many deeper dynasty leagues this year. Colin Moran going from having a chance to be the Astros' third baseman of the future to looking like an organizational depth piece also was a consideration here.

Double-A

Most Impressive: Rowdy Tellez (Blue Jays)

Few first base prospects offer Tellez's excellent contact skills (17.7 percent K-rate) and patience (12.3 percent BB-rate) while also projecting to bring a plus hit tool and plus power to the equation. There is that tiny sliver of doubt that he will hit for enough power to profile as an above average fantasy first baseman, as this marked his first season with 20 home runs, but a future home in the A.L. East should help matters. He also has to work on his ability to hit lefties (.260/.333/.431 in 123 at-bats), otherwise he could be a platoon candidate in the big leagues, but there's enough here for a Matt Adams-esque career to be his reasonable floor. The Blue Jays kept him at Double-A all season so he likely won't reach the majors until late 2017, at the earliest. Tyler O'Neill, Cody Bellinger and Willie Calhoun are also strong candidates here, but Tellez checks in the highest on the latest top 200 rankings, so that worked as a tiebreaker.

Most Improved: Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)

Hoskins didn't necessarily improve, but his dynasty league stock has absolutely soared since the start of the season. He posted a wRC+ over 150 and a wOBA over .400 at every stop above short-season ball, but this year he more than doubled his homer total of 17 from 2015 by clubbing 37 long balls this year in the Eastern League. Obviously Reading is a great place to hit but it seems reasonable to buy Hoskins' 2016 production compared to what his teammate Dylan Cozens did, even though the two are tied for the league lead in homers. Cozens (a lefty) almost exclusively produced against righties at home while Hoskins (a righty) had a .816 OPS on the road and .905 OPS against righties. He also passes the eye test, as he has a very simple swing that offers opposing pitchers few, if any, quadrants of the strike zone to attack in an effort to get him out. He may not be a household name among non-prospect hounds, but he looks like a future middle-of-the-order hitter. The fact that he is 23 years old is really the only notable thing for a Hoskins detractor to point at, but he is still over a year younger than the average player in the league. Fellow first basemen Dominic Smith and Ronald Guzman also make for strong candidates here, although Hoskins has more home runs than those two combined.

Biggest Disappointment: Ryan McMahon (Rockies)

McMahon entered the season as a consensus top 50 prospect and he proceeded to post career-worst numbers in every relevant offensive category other than walk rate (10.5 percent) and steals (10 on 14 attempts). What is more troubling is that the decline in production coincides with him moving to a neutral hitting environment after taking advantage of the extremely hitter-friendly parks in Asheville and Modesto during the two previous seasons. He is still just 21 years old and was essentially a league average hitter in the Eastern League this year (99 wRC+) so it's far too soon to panic (he's still a top 100 prospect for dynasty leagues), but his stock is down considerably from where it was in April. If we were to look down the talent spectrum, Reds prospects Eric Jagielo and Alex Blandino would also be excellent choices for this award.

High-A

Most Impressive: Luis Urias (Padres)

Urias was the youngest player in the California League this year but his numbers were arguably the most impressive, as he slashed .332/.396/.438 with five home runs despite not turning 19 until June 3. As a second baseman, he appears to be on the right track to be an above-average contributor in the power department. Consider that Rougned Odor, who is similar to Urias from a physical standpoint, hit five home runs as a 19-year-old at High-A. The key here is the age, the hit tool and the approach, all of which are huge marks in Urias' favor. If he handles Double-A the same way he handled High-A, he'll be in the big leagues before his 21st birthday.

Most Improved: Yu-Cheng Chang (Indians)

Chang followed up an excellent 42-game run in rookie ball in 2014 (.346/.420/.566) with a rough year at Low-A last year (.232/.293/.361), but he bounced back in a major way this year and recently returned from a wrist injury that cost him two weeks. It's not an extremely exciting profile, but if he can stick at a scarce defensive position like shortstop while offering double-digit homers and steals, that will be enough to make him useful in virtually all roto formats. Greg Allen, Aristides Aquino and Anthony Santander are all very deserving candidates as well, although each are slightly old for the High-A level.

Biggest Disappointment: Javier Guerra (Padres)

There were a lot of options to choose from here as Jorge Mateo, Jomar Reyes, Forrest Wall and Braxton Davidson would all have excellent cases in another league or another year. However, Guerra is the most disappointing prospect in all of baseball, so he takes this award by a fairly wide margin. He has the fourth-worst slugging percentage among qualified California League hitters and the fourth-most strikeouts in the league (141), which is obviously an awful combination. As Guerra will be 21 heading into next season and assigned to either High-A or Double-A he can hardly be written off, but it would also be incredibly difficult to get anything of value for him in a dynasty league right now despite the fact that he opened the season as a consensus top 60 prospect.

Low-A

Most Impressive: Eloy Jimenez (Cubs)

Isan Diaz has been incredibly impressive this season, but it's hard to argue against Jimenez. The top international prospect in the 2013 July 2 signing class, Jimenez showed flashes of his potential last year with short-season Eugene when he posted a .746 OPS with seven homers in 57 games. However, few could have seen him making this much progress between his age-18 and age-19 seasons as he put up a .907 OPS and 14 home runs in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. What is most impressive is that Jimenez was raking when the weather was chilly in April and May and he kept raking all season long, even when most prospects hit a wall in July and August during their first exposure to a full-season league schedule. The Cubs have no reason to rush Jimenez and his power should continue to develop as he moves up the organizational ladder. This is the type of hitter who could someday be the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball, especially if he continues on this track.

Most Improved: Magneuris Sierra (Cardinals)

Sierra has always been an enticing tool shed of a prospect but this was the first year where he lived up to that promise in a full season league. He wasn't ready for Low-A last year, as his .191/.219/.247 slash line in 51 games in the Midwest League illustrated, but he spent all of 2016 with Peoria and the results were outstanding as he stole 31 bases on 47 attempts while notching 35 extra-base hits. He combines plus-plus speed with a solid all-fields approach and as he continues to mature physically, more of his doubles will start going for home runs. This is a prospect on the rise and one worth targeting in dynasty leagues before the entire package starts to come together as he moves closer to the big leagues.

Biggest Disappointment: Ruddy Giron (Padres)

It hasn't been a great year for Padres shortstop prospects and while Giron wasn't as hyped as Guerra coming into the year, there was plenty to be excited about. He slashed .285/.335/.407 with nine home runs and 15 steals as an 18-year-old in the Midwest League last year, only to follow that up by hitting .222/.284/.304 with just two home runs and eight steals as a 19-year-old repeating the level. The Padres hoped Guerra would force the issue and make his way to Double-A, clearing a spot at High-A for Giron, but instead both prospects languished and saw their stock crash. Giron should head to High-A next year as a 20-year-old so he is still worth keeping an eye on, but he's worth next to nothing in dynasty leagues at the moment.