This article is part of our FantasyDraft MLB series.
PITCHERS:
Carlos Carrasco, CLE vs. DET ($21,200):- The Tigers have been one of the more ineffective offenses against right-handed pitching on the road since June 1st, posting a .288 wOBA and striking out at a 24.6 percent clip versus that handedness. Carrasco has been part of their overall struggles, as he's already posted a 2-1 record, 2.29 ERA and .188 BAA over 19.2 innings across three starts against Detroit this season. That included a seven-inning, seven-strikeout effort last Saturday that generated 28.15 fantasy points . The one concern here is that Carrasco has endured his share of struggles at home, but there's no denying his credentials as a tournament option—he's eclipsed 20 fantasy points in six starts overall and 30 fantasy points in an additional three.
Jordan Montgomery, NYY vs. MIL ($12,800):- The Brewers are hitting well, but Montgomery has shown the poise of a more polished player during his rookie season and has neutralized several strong offenses already. The young southpaw has generated a solid 3.73 ERA, .290 wOBA and .227 BAA over 41 home innings, while the Brewers have struck out at a 29.1 percent clip versus lefties on the road over the last two weeks. Montgomery also brings impressive tournament upside for a player of his price as well, already having scored between 23.80 and 30.15 fantasy points in four starts. Given the Brewers' propensity for whiffing against lefties and Montgomery's own swing-and-miss potential (six or more strikeouts in six starts), he makes for a somewhat risky but potential high-return tournament option.
INFIELD
Paul Goldschmidt, ARI vs. CIN ($9,600):- Reds starter Tim Adleman has been increasingly vulnerable to the long ball as the season has progressed, having allowed 10 homers over his last six starts. Those tendencies – along with the .340 wOBA and 36 percent hard contact rate he's given up to right-handed hitters – make Goldschmidt an appealing target for cash games or GPPs on Friday. Goldy checks into Friday with a .477 wOBA, .333 ISO, 1.161 OPS and 52.8 percent hard contact rate against righties at Chase Field, and he's making hard contact 45.5 percent of the time over his first 20 plate appearances of July. Meanwhile, the Reds bullpen has given up a 5.30 ERA, six homers, a .355 wOBA, 23.6 percent line drive rate and 32.8 percent hard contact rate to right-handed hitters on the road over the last month.
Dustin Pedroia, BOS at TB ($8,100):- Pedroia has gotten July off to a smoking start, posting a .382 wOBA and 36.4 percent line drive rate over his first 29 plate appearances of the month. He also boasts a .341 wOBA versus right-handed pitching on the road, while Rays starter Jake Odorizzi has increasingly been living dangerously against right-handed hitters. Odorizzi has surrendered a 26.7 percent line drive rate and 46.2 percent hard contact rate versus righty bats at Tropicana Field, while also giving up 12 of his 18 homers on the season to that handedness. He's had plenty of trouble versus Pedroia as well, who's tagged him for a .407 average, two doubles, two homers and three RBI over 28 career plate appearances. The Rays bullpen is also a target for Pedroia, considering they've yielded an AL-high 7.33 ERA and .378 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home in the last month, along with a 41.0 percent hard contact rate.
Alex Bregman, HOU at TOR ($6,800):- Russell Martin is also an appealing same-price pivot in the same contest, but Bregman has been running hot, posting a .507 wOBA, .313 ISO and season-best 46.2 percent hard contact rate over his first 19 plate appearances of July. He's also been effective versus right-handed pitching away from Minute Maid Park, tallying a .345 wOBA and 25.6 percent line drive rate versus that handedness on the road, along with a 32.0 percent hard contact rate against righties overall. Blue Jays starter Aaron Sanchez is returning from a disabled list stint caused by a finger injury and has surrendered a .365 wOBA, 5.34 xFIP, 22.2 percent HR/FB rate and 30.8 percent hard contact rate to righty bats at Rogers Centre over a 31-batter sample.
OUTFIELD
Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. DET ($9,600):- Following a 3-for-5 afternoon against the Padres on Thursday, Ramirez now boasts a .618 wOBA, .640 ISO and 36.0 percent hard contact rate over his first 26 plate appearances of July, a tally that also includes four homers. He's also posted a .452 wOBA, .299 ISO, 1.092 OPS, 25.7 percent line drive rate and 35.6 percent hard contact against righties at Progressive Field. Meanwhile, Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann has given up a .398 wOBA, a 2.62 HR/9 and 6.45 ERA over 44.2 road innings, including a .436 wOBA, 26.9 percent line drive rate, 22.6 percent HR/FB rate and 41.4 percent hard contact to left-handed hitters outside of Comerica Park. Additionally, no bullpen has been more vulnerable to left-handed hitters on the road in the last month than the Tigers, whose relievers have yielded a 16.36 ERA, .477 wOBA and 34.3 percent hard contact rate to that handedness in a 56-batter sample.
Carlos Gomez, TEX vs. LAA ($8,700):- Gomez is one of several Rangers that make for solid tournament plays against the long-ball prone Ricky Nolasco, who despite some very strong performances lately is still surrendering a .394 wOBA, 2.77 HR/9 and 40.5 percent hard contact rate to right-handed bats on the road. Gomez has a .390 wOBA in his first 25 plate appearances of July, and a .490 wOBA, .369 ISO, 1.191 OPS and 44.8 percent hard contact rate over 94 plate appearances against righties at Globe Life Park. Gomez has already tagged Nolasco for a pair of homers in 12 career plate appearances as well, furthering his case.
Adam Jones, BAL at MIN ($6,000):- Jones' price is surprising to say the least, even factoring in his recent struggles. He also draws a matchup that could help snap him out of his doldrums, considering Twins rookie Felix Jorge has given up a .349 wOBA and 6.28 xFIP to right-handed hitters over a modest sample, while Jones owns a .327 wOBA and 11 homers against righty arms, and a 22.5 percent line drive rate and 32.2 percent hard contact rate versus that handedness on the road. There's also the matter of the Minnesota bullpen, which has yielded six homers and a .363 wOBA to right-handed hitters at Target Field in the last month.
UTILITY
Cody Bellinger, LAD vs. KC ($8,800):- Royals starter Jason Hammel has been hit hard by lefty bats on the road, surrendering a .365 wOBA and 6.53 xFIP over a 72-hitter sample. Those numbers don't bode well for him against Bellinger, who boasts a .397 wOBA, .391 ISO and 43.3 percent hard contact rate versus righties at home despite a .214 BABIP that has nowhere to go but up. Bellinger has been a notable long-ball slump (no homers since June 25) but given the matchup Friday, he could be primed for a breakout. Given Hammel's struggles, Bellinger's teammate Corey Seager ($9,300) also makes for an appealing option if you have the cash to spend.
David Peralta, ARI vs. CIN ($7,600):- Peralta makes for a cost-effective play against Reds starter Tim Adleman, who's given up a .358 wOBA and 6.60 xFIP to lefty bats on the road. Peralta owns a .397 wOBA and .218 ISO against righties at Chase Field along with a 41.8 percent hard contact rate. The Reds bullpen has been victimized by left-handed hitting as well on the road, yielding a 7.82 ERA, five homers, a .343 wOBA and 35.6 percent hard contact rate to that handedness in the last month.
