This article is part of our The Wheelhouse series.
The Weather
Several games have rain in the forecast for Tuesday night (a full weather report can be viewed here). As of late Tuesday morning, the Giants-Braves matchup in Atlanta is the most likely game to require a postponement.
Parks & Rec
Three games -- including the D-backs-Rockies matchup at Coors -- have over/under totals sitting at 11 this evening (Indians-O's and Jays-Rangers are the others). Does the presence of two games with the same projected run total and Zack Greinke's turn coming up in the rotation for Arizona make fading Coors more viable than usual?
As a team, the Rangers have been terrible against left-handed pitching this season, posting a combined 74 wRC+ against southpaws and striking out at an extremely high 26.6% clip. Francisco Liriano is often his own worst enemy, and Tuesday looks like one of those nights where he might be able to turn in a nice line with a big strikeout total in an unexpected spot.
Both sides of the Cleveland-Baltimore matchup look stackable with Josh Tomlin opposing the current version of Chris Tillman. Both pitchers have had significant issues keeping the ball in the park this season, while Tomlin's reverse split against righties (.360 wOBA, 1.88 HR/9) makes him particularly vulnerable to the Orioles' feast-or-famine righty-heavy lineup.
The only drawback to stacking against Tomlin (and other Cleveland starters) is the success of the team's bullpen, which currently leads the league with a 2.56 ERA. Loading up against Tillman leaves the Cleveland bats with a few turns against Baltimore's bullpen, which has underachieved in the absence of Zach Britto with a 4.37 ERA that currently ranks 18th.
The Arms
(Note: The Overall Skills Table compiles stats from the past calendar year.)
It's Chris Sale vs. the field when making a call on pitching for Tuesday's 15-game slate.
Sale draws a road start in Kansas City against a Royals club that has done very little damage against lefties this season (83 wRC+), but one that has managed to maintain a low strikeout rate to date (18.4% K% against LHP).
As cash alternatives go, nothing stands out, but one of the better options might be Julio Teheran against the Giants, who couldn't solve R.A. Dickey on Monday night. Keep in mind, however, that early forecasts point to a possible delay, even if there is not enough inclement weather for a postponement. With Brandon Belt struggling, the Giants don't offer much pop from the left side to take advantage of SunTrust Park and Teheran's woeful numbers against lefties. Brandon Crawford at $3,200 on FanDuel is one way to get exposure to Teheran on the favorable side of the splits without relying heavily on the Giants' struggling offense.
On paper, Ervin Santana is the true Sale cash-game pivot. The White Sox continue to smash lefties, while consistently producing like a bottom-10 offense against righties, Santana is at home Tuesday, and his past calendar year numbers are great (2.47 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 0.94 HR/9) even though his strikeout rate is underwhelming (20.1%). When compared to Teheran, however, it begins to make more sense, as Teheran's strikeout rate is lower (18.5%) while his home-run rate (1.25 HR/9) is higher during that time.
Michael Pineda should be in the conversation as well, but he torched owners in his last start against the same Angels lineup in Anaheim. Those going back to the well should be more inclined to do so on FanDuel ($8,900) than on DraftKings ($10,600).
On the tournament front, one of my first reads on any slate is the pitcher matching up with the Padres. For Tuesday, that honor goes to Mike Montgomery, who appears to be a regular in the rotation for the Cubs until Kyle Hendricks (hand) is ready to return from the DL, and that may not happen until the All-Star break.
DraftKings pricing yields a huge bargain for Montgomery at $5,500, while FanDuel's $7,300 tag may be enough of a deterrent to distribute ownership rates more evenly to some of the other options. As per usual, the Padres' 72 wRC+ against southpaws is the lowest of any team's matchup split in play, and their 24.6% K% nudges up Montgomery's strikeout total potential. It's very interesting, however, that Montgomery is only $100 cheaper than Francisco Liriano, since at a glance Montgomery's matchup is much easier, but as noted above, the Rangers' struggles against southpaws are an ongoing issue.
Montgomery went five innings (88 pitches) in his last start against the Mets on June 14, so the Cubs may be willing to let him reach triple digits in this outing. Much like Liriano, however, Montgomery's inconsistent command can run up his pitch count quickly.
Assuming the early forecast of rain at first pitch doesn't get worse, Montgomery is my lean over Liriano, but it's close.
Split Skills
(Note: All Stats in the Split Skills Table are compiled since the start of the 2016 season.)
The Bats
Chad Kuhl's .392 wOBA against lefties is the worst of the 30 starters taking the ball Tuesday. Yet again, Eric Thames and Travis Shaw at home make sense. At $3,700 and $3,400 on FanDuel, respectively, both Brewers corner bats are very fairly priced Tuesday.
All Blue Jays are in play against Nick Martinez for his home start at Arlington. Martinez has a K-BB% below zero against lefties, but he gets hit hard by bats from both sides of the dish. Josh Donaldson is a gift at $3,800 on FanDuel, while Kevin Pillar's and Russell Martin offer up plenty of value on both sites, but they carry steeper discounts on FanDuel at $2,600 and $2,400.
Yankees against Parker Bridwell at home are understandably chalky, but playing them is encouraged when they can be squeezed into the budget. Interestingly enough, the middle-infield options (Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius) are better plays on FanDuel, while Brett Gardner is a the cheaper option of the Yankees' main lineup pieces on DraftKings.
What's going on with the Mariners' offense? Is it stupid to continue paying the discounted prices on Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, and company? They get another great matchup Tuesday with Jordan Zimmermann and the Tigers visiting Safeco. Zimmermann is an excellent target to stack against, but the low-priced M's on FanDuel will likely be very popular (again). Even on DraftKings, Ben Gamel and Mike Zunino are priced above Cano, Seager, Nelson Cruz, Danny Valencia, and Mitch Haniger.
Derek Holland's struggles against righties do not bode well for his chances of surviving a road date with the Twins, particularly the matchups against Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano, though switch-hitting Kennys Vargas can take advantage of this spot as well.
Amir Garrett has been awful against righties since debuting with the Reds in April. The interest in Steven Souza Jr. and Evan Longoria is up tonight as a result, perhaps Trevor Plouffe gets some run in GPP situations as well if he's spelling Logan Morrison or one of the other Rays' lefties.
Jeremy Hellickson hasn't shown the same skills he displayed in 2016, and his inability to miss bats paired with the Phillies' poor bullpen makes the Cards very interesting Tuesday. There is a very good chance that I will continue my attempt to offset disappointing season-long results from Stephen Piscotty by connecting on his good matchups in DFS.
As noted above, I have no reservations about Cleveland bats in Baltimore tonight. Even if you're passing on a full stack, Francisco Lindor has settled back in with an affordable price ($3,300 on FanDuel) at a position that isn't overloaded with great options at the present time. He's a great one-off option to get limited exposure in a high-scoring environment that will lead to plenty of stacks Tuesday.
Podcast
We post a DFS podcast every weekday during MLB season. Check out Joe Pisapia and Todd Zola's take on Tuesday's slate using the player below.
