Collette Calls: NL Pitching Bold Predictions Accountability

We have made it to the final installment of the annual accountability series, officially putting a bow on my body of predictive work for 2023. This winter, I'll be looking at some specific topics, but I'm open to suggestions, so please use the comment section to put in some requests. I'll likely be doing some bi-weekly content for the next four-to-six weeks as I help the staff with player profiles as well as get ready for my session at First Pitch Arizona with Andy Andres and Todd Zola on the impact of the rule changes on the 2023 season.  

Dylan Lee is a top 200 pitcher - 0 Stars

Lee went down with a shoulder issue in mid-May and did not make it back until September, throwing just a handful of innings. His fastball got lit up to the tune of a .382 average (.393 xBA) and .676 slugging percentage (.891 xSLG) just one season after those sat at .202 and .298, respectively. Reliever volatility is a thing, and the lost velocity with shoulder troubles certainly didn't help matters.

Braxton Garrett is the highest-ranked Garrett - 5 Stars

The play on words with his last name was mostly a joke because Garrett's ADP was 492 when this prediction was made, and Garrett Whitlock was the only Garrett garnering attention on mixed-league draft days before peak draft season. Garrett finished the season as the 52nd-best fantasy pitcher, while Whitlock came in at No. 284. The former cut his walk rate even further while ramping up the use of a cutter that he used all of four times near the end of the 2022 season. He went from throwing it four times to 440 times, and it helped him lower his batting average against righties by 19 points, but 17 of his 20 homers allowed still came off right-handed bats. Overall, a great step forward from someone who was on the periphery of lists this time last season. 

Adam Ottavino is not a top-350 pitcher - 1 Star

The foundation of the prediction was that Ottavino was going to struggle controlling the running game with his slower than molasses time to home plate, and that part came true as he allowed 22 steals, finishing only behind six starting pitchers and what is left of Noah Syndergaard, who allowed 34 steals in 88.2 innings of work! The saving grace for Ottavino's fantasy value was he took over the closer role once David Robertson was dealt away and finished the season with 12 saves. 

Cristopher Sanchez is a top-250 pitcher - 5 Stars

Sanchez had an ADP of 749 when I penned this prediction, and he finished the season 123rd in the final pitcher rankings despite not even working 100 innings. He appeared in 19 games with 3 wins, solid ratios, and 96 strikeouts in 99.1 innings, far outearning the guy who Philadelphia dealt away for Sanchez a few years ago (Curtis Mead). 

Hunter Harvey is a top-150 pitcher - 4 Stars

Harvey's ADP was 520 as the market was zigging to Kyle Finnegan, who did end up with 7 wins and 28 saves and finished 56th overall in the final pitcher rankings. However, Harvey still came in 88th overall with 4 wins, 12 saves with excellent ratios while holding the league to a .200 batting average. The production finally caught up with the potential here!

Jeremiah Estrada leads the Cubs in saves - 0 Stars

It is tough to lead a club in saves when you have zero saves. In fact, Estrada had one save between Triple-A and Chicago as he had no command of the baseball, walking 38 batters in 41.1 innings around 56 strikeouts. The stuff is still electric, but it loses its juice if Estrada cannot properly locate it. Mono-league fantasy managers should not yet write him off, but mixed-leaguers can push him down a bit until the control resurfaces.

Nick Lodolo is not a top-50 starting pitcher - 5 Stars

Lodolo's season was over on May 6th when a stress fracture in his leg effectively ended his season. He attempted to come back near the end of August, but a setback shelved those plans. He worked 34.1 innings and allowed 10 homers, including multiple home runs in each of his last 4 outings. His only bright spot was a 12-strikeout performance against Philadelphia in his second outing of the season, in which he shut them out over seven innings. Lodolo was being taken as high as 92nd overall despite the risk factors of the ballpark, inexperience and (at the time) questionable run support. 

Matt Bush is a top-150 pitcher - Negative 5 Stars

Bush worked all of 10.1 innings with disastrous results after returning from a rotator cuff injury. His average fastball velocity fell from 97.4 to 94.8 mph over the past two seasons, and his checkered professional career is likely over.

Mitch Keller is a top-100 pitcher - 5 Stars

Keller finished the season as the 45th-best fantasy pitcher, recording 13 wins and 210 strikeouts thanks to newfound velocity and a new cutter. He used five different pitches to both righties and lefties, and his fastball went from a pitch the league hit .267 against in 2022 to one they hit .176 off of (.177 xBA!) this past season. Keller now throws six pitches overall, and five of them had at least a 20 percent  whiff rate in 2023. Keller was 153rd on draft rankings when this prediction was made, and he came in over 100 spots better than his ADP. This is what I said about him near the end of the prediction and I'm rather proud of how that played out:

Keller added nearly two ticks of velocity to his fastball and has reshaped his slider with a near 300 RPM spin jump. The league hit .271 off his four-seamer with an xBA of .220, but to his credit, Keller kept his ERA below 4.00 despite the volume of baserunners. He also did it without any crazy LOB% luck, posting a 73 percent mark last season. We do not find many starters with sub-4.00 ERAs and WHIPs as high as Keller's over the past 20 years,  but a very interesting name pops on that list: Scott Kazmir.

Kazmir had a 3.77 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP in 2005 with his fastball and slider combination and then stepped up the next year with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP while making the All-Star team and pitching well for yet another terrible Devil Rays team. Keller shares many of the same characteristics that Kazmir dealt with that year, so I'm looking for him to have a similar turnaround this year for a Pirates team that is efforting to get better. If they were to put Keller on the trade market, his value would grow exponentially given the track record of pitchers leaving that organization for greener instructional pastures.

Jordan Montgomery is not a top 80 overall pitcher - 0 Stars

I did not like making the prediction when I made it because I really do love this pitcher, so much so I wanted Tampa Bay to trade for him at the deadline. Montgomery finished as the 36th-best fantasy pitcher, recording double-digit wins for the first time in his career along with a career-best ERA and a sub-1.20 WHIP as he headed into free agency. Montgomery altered his repertoire to return to the sinker usage he had pre-COVID while dialing back his four-seamer and cutter. Ironically, it was the increased usage of that four-seamer after leaving the Yankees which helped Montgomery pitch better after the trade last season. 

Scott McGough is a top-150 pitcher - 0 Stars

Two wins and nine saves were not enough to push McGough (hey, that rhymes!)  into the top 150, as he finished 223rd. 14 homers in 70.1 innings was his ultimate downfall, as he did strike out 86 batters. 

Fineas Del Bonta-Smith has a positive dollar value - 0 Stars

Trying to find a valuable Colorado pitcher who is not the closer is incredibly tough, and I don't believe I've ever gotten this one right over the years. Del Bonta-Smith never made it out of Double-A, where he struck out 55 in 45 innings while allowing 12 homers with a 5.40 ERA. 

Gavin Stone is a top-125 pitcher - 0 Stars

I did it again. I allowed a great changeup to suck me in to believing that this was going to be a breakout pitcher. Stone struck out 120 in 100.2 innings at Triple A, but he also allowed 8 homers in 31.1 innings with a 9.00 ERA for the Dodgers. I still want to believe that this is a shorter version of James Shields at his peak, but this was not a good first step for Stone. 

Sean Manaea is a top-80 pitcher - 1 Star

Manaea's new velocity in spring was all the rage and I allowed it to sucker me in to the point I took him in multiple leagues. Manaea did post a career-best K/9 and held the league to a .232 average, but he also lost his spot in the rotation, becoming a bulk guy behind an opener and finishing 7-6 with a 4.44 ERA as the 131st-best fantasy pitcher. 

Blake Snell wins the NL Cy Young - 50 Stars

I saved the best for last. Even though awards have not yet been announced, Snell is in the driver's seat to take home his second Cy Young, as he finished as the third-best fantasy pitcher behind only the guy who will take home the AL Cy Young and Spencer Strider. Snell had a historic close to the season, going 13-3 with a 1.20 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over his final 23 starts while holding the league to a .155 average. Yes, his 13.3 percent walk rate was an issue, but the 34.4 percent strikeout rate offset that damage and Snell handsomely rewarded fantasy managers who took a chance on him when his ADP was 115. All that said, 2024 Blake Snell is going to be 2022 Robbie Ray, and I'll be cashing in my chips this winter on Snellzilla as I want nothing to do with his new market price. 

Thanks for sticking with me through all four parts of this accountability series. I hope these predictions helped you in your fantasy success, and I hope we both learned some things about our decision-making processes as we now prepare for 2024 drafts. I have my first one in two weeks!