This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
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I'm flat-out disgusted. Florida State getting robbed blind by the NCAA/Officiating... never heard of it! Yes, I'm upset because FSU is a team that I've been on all year with a huge ticket. The fact that Blake Burke doesn't get called on the swing to end the game is pathetic. Regardless, Seminoles couldn't find a way to close out a three-run lead in the ninth inning to pull off a huge upset against Tennessee to go to the winners bracket. Man, I'm fed up right now.
Just needed to vent a little bit. I'm trying to regroup for the Saturday slate. I've locked in a play.
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Florida Gators (+124) @ Texas A&M Aggies (-160) | Total: 10
The rematch of the SEC opening series is our nightcap on this Saturday evening. It's two of the more high-powered programs in the nation. Both have had very different paths to make it to this point in the year, but like they say; you go far enough left and far enough right, and eventually you meet in the middle. Let's break down this all-time matchup.
Texas A&M pulled one of the biggest stunners in the tournament by announcing their Friday guy ace, Ryan Prager, will NOT be the Game 1 starter against UF. Instead, it will be the first-half-of-the-season Sunday guy, Justin Lamkin. Lamkin was pulled from his weekend rotation spot halfway through the year, though he did make a few starts. The 5.73 ERA is a little less than ideal, but Lamkin has truly been hit or miss this season. When he's on like he was against Mississippi State and Georgia (13 innings, 1 run, 19 K's combined), he can be close to untouchable.
But then there's been a few outings like he had against South Carolina where he gave up six hits, five earned over 3.1 innings. It's hard to predict because you really don't know what you're going to get from him. I will say though, the Aggies have had a knack for getting unreal pitching performances from out of nowhere.
Pitching aside, we know the A&M lineup can hit. The bigger problem now is without star OF Braden Montgomery, a likely top 5-10 pick, the offense looks a bit lost. It took a miraculous meltdown from Oregon to prevent the Aggies from having to rally in a winner-take-all game in the Supers. While studs like Gavin Grahovac and Jace Laviolette lurk atop this lineup, somebody else will have to fill Monty's shoes.
With Liam Peterson on the mound for the red-hot Gators, there is an advantage for Florida. Despite the turbulent freshman season, Peterson has honed in a very 2023 Thatcher Hurd way by completely dialing in during the stretch run. Aside from a rough first inning at Clemson last week (1 IP, 3 ER), LP has given up only six earned runs over his last 21.2 innings, so don't let the 5.97 ERA throw you. Even against a TAMU lineup that's a bit exposed, I expect the freshman to give up a few runs and walk some batters. The 40 free passes in 60.1 IP is not the formula in Omaha. Last time out, Peterson got tagged by A&M for six runs in two innings. While I don't expect that to be the case this time, I do think A&M can get a few. It's all about Peterson buckles down in the big moments to prevent explosions.
Offensively, this is a unit that may have to carry the game. Freshman on the mound, you want to give him a ton of runs. Obviously, it all starts with big daddy Jac Caglianone, the best player in the country. The 33 homers and north of .410 batting average plays very well in this tournament with Cags having a lot of experience in this tournament.
Lamkin hasn't walked a ton of batters this year (19 in 55 innings), but working to get his pitch count up and taking advantage of mistakes will be a big note early on. Top to bottom, the Gators have dudes that can hit, but the big key will be to not strike out and put the ball in play. Florida, like the Aggies, scored 10+ runs in both games of their Supers, so I think that carries over even in a bigger park.
It's a great matchup we have here. For TAMU, it will be either the dumbest or smartest decision to gamble with Lamkin in game one to try and save Prager for the 1-0 game. Lamkin has shown up in the big moment before though. While I do think the line is too big, I'm actually looking at the total. Getting at least a few runs each off both starters is important because they'll turn to shutdown relievers respectively. It might be a grind, but I think we see an over.
Pick: Over 10 (-115)
