This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Best Bets: Friday, April 19
College Baseball's Week 10 has some of the most butter matchups of the entire season. Unfortunately, there's only about a month left in the regular season. The College campaign is less than half of the MLB's, so we need to enjoy it while we can. There's a lot of highlight-worthy draw this weekend.
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Florida State Seminoles (+190) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-250) | Total: N/A
I have several plays I like for Friday, but I just had to highlight arguably the best pitching duel of the weekend between Jamie Arnold and Chase Burns. Not only is this an entertaining series, but it's one that could have a huge impact on hosting a regional, and maybe even winning the ACC in the regular season. A couple of teams on the precipice of making that jump, who gets it done?
In terms of starting pitchers (and the Power 5 conference), nobody has a better ERA than FSU's Jamie Arnold, who is sporting a microscopic 1.32. The true leader is ECU's reliever, Wyatt Lunsford-Shenkman and his 0.82. I think his name is longer than his ERA. Arnold has been a huge X-factor for 30-6 (10-5 conference) FSU this season. In addition to a 78 K/12 BB ratio this season, he's managed four consecutive quality starts.
Against Wake Forest, Arnold's primary concerns will be Nick Kurtz and Seaver King. Since his return from injury, the projected top five 2024 draft pick Kurtz has gone NUCLEAR, hitting FOURTEEN homers in his last TEN games.
Coming into March 31st, Nicky Nukes only had three taters all year, and now he's on pace to flirt with 30. Kurtz has definitely been better against RHP than LHP, against lefties he's only 7-30, but does have six long balls. King has also been white-hot lately, and hasn't been as good against LHP, although his splits aren't as dramatic as his teammate's. For Arnold, everything starts with these two bats.
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Now, we get to the prize. Chase Burns development has been a sight to behold. If you watched him the last two years at Tennessee, you saw what kind of potential he had with a heater that reaches 102 MPH combined with a demonic slider.
Wake has been able to fully unlock it and help the Electric Factory put it all together. It's going to be a close race on which arm is taken first this summer between Burns and Hagen Smith, but pure stuff might put Burns ahead and in the top five.
Burns' 105 strikeouts lead the NCAA (in only 57 innings), while the walks have continued to be low (17). It's funny because we're looking at a kid that has a career 13.8 K/9 rate in college, but manages a 2.9 BB/9 rate has well. Burns' only bugaboo this year is the longball, allowing nine already. That could provide an advantage for Florida State's well-oiled offense which currently ranks 14th in the country in that department (68 HR's).
Cam Smith (not that one) and James Tibbs III have made quantum leaps this year, as both have a realistic shot at hearing their names called in the first round this summer. Smith (batting .410) and Tibbs (.411) have combined for 24 of the team's homers, as well has 24 doubles and 93 RBI's.
It's a lineup that is a bit top-heavy but has a couple of other strong contributors. The big thing to remember is this series is being played at a bandbox in Wake. I've been to that stadium, I could hit one out. The Seminoles are a team that hunts fastballs, and Burns is like most power pitchers will challenge hitters with heat.
Getting Chase Burns at home, or anywhere for that matter makes it so difficult to not take him, even in a parlay. The thing is, I'm surprised with how little respect the book is giving FSU, a top 10 team right now.
Personally, I thought this line should have been Wake -160, FSU +124. It's a direct result of the Burns effect, but the book doesn't know the same thing about Arnold. The Seminoles are getting way too big of a price, especially with a pitcher who has been one of the six or seven best arms in the country. I like FSU to take the series, and think they'll steal it in game one. The run line +1.5 is something that I would look at as well. Let's get a plus money BANGER.
Pick: FSU ML +190
