This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: March 8, 2024
I know Sunday's Georgia Tech ML play was a brutal beat that saw the Yellow Jackets squander a big 9-3 lead against Georgia in the three innings, but I told you that's the kind of stuff you run into with this sport. The best way to get over it is to get back on the horse. And that's exactly what we're doing for the start of the week four College Baseball slate that features a one shot deal between two powerhouses out of the ACC. Let's lock in.
Sports fans in NC can look forward to North Carolina sports betting officially going live this coming Monday, March 11. RotoWire has the intel on the latest North Carolina betting promos, including the upcoming BetMGM North Carolina bonus code.
Duke Blue Devils (+154) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-200)
Truth be told, this weekend is probably one of the weaker all-around slates we'll have this year, but that excludes one of the best series matchups of the regular season. These are two squads that are not only the best in their conference but Omaha-destined teams as well. Duke was a team in the preseason I thought would be good, but not necessarily College World Series champion good. And Wake Forest had big-time fall-off written all over it. Over the last few weeks, my opinion has changed on one of them. It's a battle of ELITE pitching, headlined by two projected first-round lefty starters going at it.
The last time the Duke ace, Jonathan Santucci, faced this Wake team was almost a year ago to the day. It was March 10th of last year when Santucci really showed me that he was a guy who could make the jump to the top level when his time came. Now you know how much I talked up the Demon Deacons as my preseason darling from a year ago. But at the time, it wasn't universally recognized yet, so in the moment the matchup wasn't a big deal.
In his first big test, the lefty ended up notching 11 punchies over 4.1 innings. The final stat line that included four earned runs and four walks didn't tell the whole story, but Santucci had an elite Wake Forest lineup in knots. The fastball was hitting 98 and the slider disappeared from the lefty batter's box to the right one. That set the Duke Friday guy on the path.
Santucci missed most of last year with a shoulder injury but has not skipped a beat this season. To start 2024, he's proving his high-level prowess as one of the first arms off the board this July with a 31 K/7 BB ratio that includes only 10 hits and NO EARNED RUNS allowed across 17 innings in his three starts.
This time around, he'll have an opportunity to really shut down the Wake offense that took a major step back from last year. The two keys to this offense would be Nick Kurtz and Seaver King who are batting a combined .259 with only six homers and 16 RBI's, and projected top 12 prospects in 2024. While it's no gimmie, this is a matchup where my fellow paisan should be able to shut down a team that went to Omaha last year.
It's a huge sports weekend in NC with the UNC vs. Duke matchup on the hardwood. RotoWire has the latest Duke vs UNC odds and expert picks ahead of tipoff Saturday.
On the flip side, Wake has arguably the best starting pitching rotation in the country (for the second year in a row), which features Josh Hartle as their Friday guy. As the Sunday guy in 2023, Hartle was nothing short of sublime as he racked up 140 K's in 102.1 IP while pitching to a 2.81 ERA. While he's been pretty good to start the new campaign, the numbers aren't as dominant against the weak opponents as you would expect.
Hartle has only managed 17 K's in 17.2 innings, but does have a 2.04 ERA with only three walks. With a fastball that doesn't top out at much more than 92, his MO is elite off-speed and breaking stuff. There are a ton of weapons in this Blue Devil lineup that has produced the 14th most runs (129) and 6th best average (.359) in the sport. It's definitely going to be one of Hartle's toughest tests for 2024.
I'm so obsessed with this matchup. The two best front-to-back pitching staffs in the nation, it's a matchup that favors Duke. On the mound, only one team has a better ERA than the Blue Devils (2.29) and that's Texas A&M (a little more than an anomaly). This 11-1 team has outscored their opponents 129-32 through 12 games. Even in a band-box stadium, the pitching should be able to hold down their opposition.
Price-wise, there's a huge inflation of the Deacs because of their status from a season ago. The Duke moneyline is way too generous, and you could even make a case they should be favored. We're watching a team that may go to the College World Series this year. I think Duke takes Friday's game and Sunday's after Chase Burns of Wake evens it out on Saturday. You're watching Duke blossom in real-time in a series that will set in motion a strong bid to win the ACC in the regular season.
Oh, by the way, if you couldn't guess this is a strong Friday night under spot if the line is anything higher than 9.5,
College Baseball Expert Pick
Duke ML +154
