This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks Today: Thursday, March 21
We're back with College Baseball betting. You know the sport starts getting real when conference play matchups kick off on Thursday instead of Friday. This week features an appetizer of Top 25 teams doing battle. Next week's lineup is absolutely insane. Let's see what tickles the fancy for the start of Week 6.
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Arkansas Razorbacks (-180) @ Auburn Tigers (+140)
You should remember the Razorbacks were the team I gave out over a month ago as my pick to win the College World Series. The philosophy was simple; this team is LIGHTS OUT on the mound. One of the main reasons is LHP Hagen Smith, a projected top-10 pick in July's draft. There's a real feeling he could be the first pitcher taken, although his battle with Wake's Chase Burns will be a grueling one.
For a good laugh, you'll find Arkansas' country-leading team ERA at 2.35 (in 168.1 IP), which is .30 higher than the next team (Texas A&M). Smith currently sits atop every pitcher in America in K/9 with a comedic 19.57 rate. Just to compare how crazy that is, the year Shane Bieber won the AL Cy Young (2020), he notched the best K/9 of all time with a 14.19 mark. Obviously, that was an abbreviated season, but you get the point.
I made a mental note of how last week was brutal for road teams in game one during the first weekend of conference play. In the SEC alone, road teams on Friday night went 1-6 with lone winner being Tennessee at Alabama. It's definitely changing how I approach the rest of the season, at least for the time being. However, Arkansas might be the one team this weekend to follow in the Vols footsteps.
Since his brutal first inning/outing against JMU on opening day, Smith has been DIALED IN, allowing only one earned run over his last four starts (22 innings). The 50 strikeouts (to eight walks) over 23 innings is outrageous, but he's definitely elevated himself by lightyears from last year's solid season.
I won't lie, this Auburn offense is no joke...at times. They got bombed by Vandy last week, and in addition to getting swept, they only mustered 12 runs. It's still a team that ranks 19th in home runs (37) and 27th in slugging percentage (.536). This is a capable lineup when they decide to show up.
I get a little concerned with the fact that they will be looking for a revenge turnaround. It's also worth noting that Smith is probably the best pitcher they'll see all season. The Tigers are projecting Connor McBride to usurp the Friday role from Chase Allsup. McBride has been the team's best starter on the back of his 2.41 ERA and only 12 hits allowed in 18 innings. And he's seeing a Razorbacks lineup that has only averaged 5.4 runs per game with Smith is going.
At the end of the day, I have to ride Hagen and the Razorbacks even in a bit of a scary, maybe even trap-ish spot. The under could be in play if the total is anything over 10.5, but by now the books know what the Arkansas ace is up to, so they're not sleeping any more. I'll say this, if this line is ballooned out from -180 to about -220, then you may want to grab a buy back on Auburn on the run line. It could end up being closer than you think. #GoHogs
Pick: Arkansas ML -180
