This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Picks: Sunday, March 10
Texas Tech came home yesterday after a strong bounceback against the Longhorns. And Wake Forest ended up doing what I said they would, taking game two after Duke grabbed the first one.
Chase Burns absolutely dominated yesterday with a career-high 14 punchies over six innings where he allowed one run. He topped out 101 MPH (personal best is 102), and flashed his 90 MPH change-up, as well as his devastating 91 MPH slider. Burns was already a top prospect coming into 2024, but the Wake pitching lab has him looking like not only the first arm off the board, but maybe in the top five overall as well.
Burns was more known as a college prospect. You didn't know who Skenes was unless you really followed the sport, even then nobody thought he would gain the kind of steam he did at AF.
Once Wake polishes Burns up, look out. I believe he's got the higher MLB ceiling than Skenes https://t.co/vCFbrrdYDY
— Johnny Venezia (@_JohnnyVTV) July 29, 2023
After watching Burns his entire collegiate career, it's been impressive to see him unlock that potential with some minor mechanical tweaks. Last July, I tweeted out how I thought there was a chance he would end up with a higher MLB ceiling than Paul Skenes.
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Duke Blue Devils (+160) @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-210)
Sunday features a huge rubber match contest that could go a long way in deciding the ACC regular season winner. A win for Duke would catapult them into the mainstream spotlight as a team that is capable of being a real College World Series contender. We'll have another star-studded pitching duel between Wake's Michael Massey (a potential '24 first rounder) and Duke's two-way freshman phenomenon, Kyle Johnson.
Johnson has flashed high grade potential on the mound thus far with 12 innings, six hits, no earned runs, 11 K/2 BB ratio. The freshman will deal with a Demon Deacons lineup that is a far cry from last season where they were the best top-to-bottom offense in America. Nonetheless, Wake still has some boppers like Nick Kurtz (top five '24 prospect) and Seaver King (top 10 '24 prospect). He'll need to mix in a heavy dose of off-speed and breaking balls since the Wake offense has been hunting fastballs early in the series. Duke will need him to eat up at least five or six innings, so he can turn it over to elite relievers like Fran Oschell III and Charlie Beilenson.
Wake Forest will be throwing Massey, a guy who is a Friday starter on most teams in the country. He's been on fire to start his 2024 campaign, only allowing one earned run over 12.2 innings to go along with 22 K's to three walks. However, this may be the toughest matchup Massey has to face this season with a dangerous Blue Devil lineup that is batting .345 as a team with 39 homers. Out of eight batters in this lineup with at least 30 at bats, they have seven of them with an average of over .300.
My pre-series handicap was Duke wins Friday, Wake wins Saturday, and Duke steals the series on Sunday. The Blue Devils are the better team with a much higher ceiling. Even after a dominant Burns performance last night, Wake only managed a 6-3 win. Because the Deacs took game two, sportsbooks have bloated them out to -210, leaving Duke at +160. And that's way too big. The correct price should be Wake -135/-140 with Duke being +105/+110. I believe in this Duke team, so we're riding them on Sunday at a nice plus-money price. #BlueCollar
Pick: Duke ML +160
