This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Betting: Expert Picks for Saturday, March 16
Texas A&M was one of four teams on Friday that really disgusted me. Blown leads/implosions from UGA, South Carolina, Arizona, and TAMU changed the entire landscape of my Friday card. It's definitely annoying, but I'm looking forward to getting right on Saturday. We're taking a shot on another SEC team...
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Tennessee Volunteers (-150) @ Alabama Crimson Tide (+120)
A Friday night win on the road against a pitcher like Ben Hess is a statement from the Tennessee Volunteers. Although the 18-1 Vols have been dominating opponents with a 207-55 advantage thus far, I feel like they have been one of the least talked about in terms of Top 25 ranked teams. Almost as if they're doing their best Mel Kiper Jr. "flying under the radar" impersonation. Regardless, UT is throwing probably their best arm in possible '24 first rounder, Drew Beam.
Beam has been arguably the best Sunday guy for the past two seasons, but head coach Tony Vitello decided to slide him up one spot instead of two. We've seen Sunday guys get thrown into the Friday role, like Josh Hartle, and it's been a disaster. As the now Saturday guy, Beam has looked great with his 2.08 ERA and 20 K/2 BB ratio across 21.2 innings.
Beam will face an Alabama offense that has been getting contributions from many different places. At the moment, there are really two that stand out from the rest. Gage Miller and TJ McCants have combined for 15 of the team's 36 homers and 48 of the 155 RBI's. Beam will have to set the tone early with these two.
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On the other side, it's Louisville LHP transfer, Greg Farone for the Crimson Tide. Farone has been a lot better thus far than he was with the Cardinals, where he had a 4.80 ERA and 65 K/35 BB ratio in 50.2 innings. His 1.72 ERA has been a much bigger improvement, but he has been playing a cupcake schedule. The only solid team he faced was Dallas Baptist a couple weeks ago, and he surrendered two runs over four innings.
The truth is I wasn't that impressed with what I saw from the lefty last season, and I'm not buying he shuts down the white hot Vols. There are guys coming off the bench hitting north of .300. As a team, Tennessee is hitting .335 with 52 home runs, and a 1.118 OPS. One of the primary culprits for leading this charge has been Clemson Transfer INF Billy Amick and his .382 average, nine taters, 21 RBI's, and 1.331 OPS. It's a tough ask for Bama.
A lot of times, we want to sit there and say how a team that just got crushed is due for a bounce back the next game. I know, I do it as well. Sometimes it's right, and other times it's wrong. Just because Alabama got curb-stomped yesterday, doesn't mean they respond. This is the danger of college baseball though because every single advantage points to Tennessee. I'm riding with the Vols here, but I will say this line opened at UT -130 (now out to -150), so if this ends up closing with the Orange out to to like -180 or so, then do a run line buyback on Bama.
Pick: Tennessee Vols ML -150
