Breakout Breakdown: Nolan Jones

The Rockies often seem like a rudderless ship. Granted, trying to build a roster in Colorado is undoubtedly the most difficult front-office task in baseball, but when presented with a fork in the road, the Rockies nearly always choose the wrong path.

Because the instances are so few and far between, I feel obligated to give them a pat on the back when they do something right. The trade for Nolan Jones was certainly one of those instances.

Last November, the Rockies acquired Jones from the Guardians in exchange for infield prospect Juan Brito. I should note that the 22-year-old Brito is a nice prospect in his own right, so perhaps the trade won't look terrible from Cleveland's perspective in the end. Still, I'm pretty sure they'd take it back now if they could, especially considering their outfield situation. The 20 home runs Jones hit in 2023 would have been the highest for a Guardians outfielder since Michael Brantley hit the same number all the way back in 2014. Yikes.

Things didn't immediately start off on the right foot for Jones in Colorado. He wasn't included on the Opening Day roster, and while he earned a quick call-up on April 12, Jones didn't see any action before being sent back down on April 16. The 25-year-old was back in the majors in late May following an utterly ridiculous .356/.481/.711 batting line with 12 homers in 39 games for Triple-A Albuquerque. At that point, Jones made sure he stayed with the Rockies for good.

The Rockies made Jones an everyday player following his recall on May 26, as he started all but two games over the next month and slashed .316/.391/.551 with five homers and five steals during that stretch. Jones did lose a bit of playing time amidst a rough July, but then the calendar flipped to August and he started every game from that point forward.

Among qualifiers, only six others topped Jones' 1.008 OPS from Aug. 1 on. Only Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto produced more fantasy value than Jones in September, when he sported a blistering .349/.461/.651 batting line with seven home runs, 23 RBI, 23 runs scored and 12 stolen bases.

There were 19 players to go 20-20 in 2023. Among them, Jones had easily the fewest plate appearances with 424. The 20 stolen bases from Jones (as well as an additional five steals at Albuquerque) were definitely a pleasant surprise considering he totaled just four steals in 2022 and had never swiped more than 10 bags in any pro season previously. I see no reason to doubt the legitimacy of Jones' 20 pilfers, though. For one, he was very efficient, getting caught just four times. He also had a sprint speed in the 78th percentile and a 90-foot split of 3.93 seconds, which ranked 150th out of 556 qualifiers.

Jones' raw power has long been his calling card since he was considered a top prospect. This season he boasted a 15.7 percent barrel rate (which ranked in the 94th percentile) and a 115.3 mph max exit velocity (96th percentile). Jones' average home run distance was 417 feet, which was the sixth-highest mark in baseball. He launched a 483-foot shot, which was tied for the third-longest homer in 2023. Baseball Savant says Jones underperformed from a home run output standpoint, with his xHR total coming in at 22.2. If he can raise that 9.8 degree launch angle (it was at 15.9 degrees in 2022), Jones' power has the potential to really explode.

So, Jones had to be a product of Coors Field, right? Think again.

That's right, Jones' production was eerily similar with and without the thin Denver air. I'm certainly not counting on a .935 OPS on the road again in 2024, but the fact that he seemed wholly unaffected by the environment changes away from home was certainly encouraging.

Those weren't Jones' only encouraging splits:

Jones also struck out a tick less against lefties (26.2 percent) than he did against righties (31.3 percent). You would certainly like to see the strikeout rate versus right-handers improve, but I find a 26.2 percent strikeout rate against southpaws for a young, left-handed power hitter to be more heartening than disheartening.

Batters with a 29.7 percent strikeout rate generally don't hit .297 or even close to it. Jones' xBA came in at .249, and he sported a bloated .401 BABIP. That said, while I certainly would expect some regression there, Rockies hitters are going to regularly outperform their xBA as they receive the Coors Field boost. Jones might be more of a .260-.270 hitter, which would be perfectly fine for a guy with his power/speed combination.

I think I've made it pretty clear that I'm buying into the Jones breakout, and early drafters at NFBC appear to be, as well, as he's the 55th player going off the board with a min pick of 29 and a max pick of 111. Jones finished right at 100 in terms of RotoWire's Earned Auction Values, although keep in mind that he played just 106 games and accrued only 424 plate appearances. He could easily finish as a top-50 player with a full workload, although I might not be inclined to pay the full freight if that ADP holds. A scan of RotoWire's Roundtable Top-300 Rankings finds Jones at 95.