This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets and Expert Picks for
Friday, July 12
YTD 113-109-1
Prior article 1-3 ( -1.00 units)
SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at home/road and vs. RHP/LHP over the last 30 days to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the summer, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5-inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
MLB fans: Get in on the action at BetMGM with the BetMGM bonus code for a first-bet bonus welcome offer worth up to $1,500 when using code ROTOBONUS. BetMGM is one of several leading sportsbooks that accept credit card and PayPal.
New York Yankees 
at Baltimore Orioles 
I have gone against Gerrit Cole in his first four starts since coming off the injury and I will continue to do so until I see changes. He has lasted just 4-to-5 innings in each start with an ERA of 6.75 and 1.62 WHIP, yet his prices are still that of him being in prime form. The Orioles just got waxed by the Cubs and Cade Povich got rocked for eight earned runs in Oakland. But Povich did pitch well against the Yankees on June 19, allowing one earned run in 4.2 innings.
This play is simply one against Cole as the Orioles are rarely home dogs, going 2-1 this year. The Yankees had opened -140 and the number is almost even now.
Baseball betting is very much about taking value and riding that edge over six months and we get that with the Orioles here.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Orioles
- Orioles ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +108)
Minnesota Twins 
at San Francisco Giants 
In Kyle Harrison's 10 home starts, the opponents have scored at least 5.0 runs in six out of 10 games. Harrison has an xERA of 4.78 and gone over his earned runs prop in five out of seven home starts.
The Twins are the hottest team in baseball against left-handed pitching, ranking second in wRC+, first in average and slugging. I wanted to take the Twins' team total, but 3.5 runs was not an option with a 7.5 total and the Twins at -140 and 4.5 runs in Oracle is just too risky even with the Twins.
With such a mismatch of Harrison against Joe Ryan, I was surprised that the Twins were even money laying -0.5 run in the F5 innings. The only drawback with this is if the game were to be tied, but I am willing to take the shot.
MLB Picks for Twins at Giants
- Twins -0.5 runs F5 for 2 units (DraftKings +100)
Cleveland Guardians 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
I lean heavily on pitching home/road splits as they are very rarely factored into the lines. We get a great spot for Taj Bradley at home against Carlos Carrasco. The short number on the Rays and Bradley is from the Guardians' success, but there are several things working against them here.
Bradley has 11 starts this season, with seven coming at home for the following splits:
HOME – 1.76 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 13.2 K/9
ROAD – 6.20 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 7.5 K/9
Carrasco has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball over the last 1.5 seasons and I wonder why the Guardians even roll him out there with a 5.22 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
MLB Picks for Guardians at Rays
- Rays -0.5 runs F5 for 2 units (DraftKings -115)
Baseball fans present in the Tar Heel State can claim thousands of dollars in bonuses with North Carolina betting promos this baseball season now that North Carolina sports betting is officially live. The Caesars Sportsbook North Carolina promo code gets new customers $250 in bonus bets after making an initial wager of at least $10.
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Orioles ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +108)
- Twins -0.5 runs F5 for 2 units (DraftKings +100)
- Rays -0.5 runs F5 for 2 units (DraftKings -115)
Stay up to date on the best MLB picks and props every day of the season using RotoWire's props tool. Looking to sign up at a new sportsbook? There are thousands of dollars in bonus bets up for grabs when you take advantage of the best sportsbook promo codes available on the best sports betting apps.
