This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks
Tuesday, April 2
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2023 Regular Season/Postseason Record: 39-47-1 (+5.57 RW Bucks)
I'm glad to be back for another season of MLB betting picks on RotoWire, looking to improve on a 2023 season where we did end up on the plus side of the ledger thanks to a couple of big bets hitting but still finished under .500.
MLB wagering is always challenging due to day-to-day variance, but with a few games already in the books in this young season and pitchers starting to go through their second turns in the rotation, we have at least something to look back on in terms of data.
We'll focus on one interleague matchup and a classic NL West nightcap for today's pair of games.
Angels vs. Marlins Best Bets
The Marlins' season has started off in nightmarish 0-5 fashion, with three of Miami's first five losses coming by three runs or fewer and all of them coming at home. Tuesday, Jesus Luzardo, who started Opening Day and was impressive while recording eight strikeouts over five innings of two-hit, two-run ball, retakes the hill in an attempt to finally break Miami into the win column in '24.
The Angels counter with journeyman Tyler Anderson, who struggled to a 6-6 record, 5.43 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in his debut campaign in Los Angeles in 2023. Anderson has typically pitched to a good amount of contact throughout his career thanks to a fastball that typically tops out in the low 90s and fairly inconsistent location to boot.
The Angels finished off the last two months of the regular season in 2023 with a .282 wOBA and -6.8 wRAA against left-handed pitching on the road, and that was with Shohei Ohtani in the lineup for more than the first month of that stretch. Naturally, Mike Trout, who drilled two homers Monday and wasn't available for all but one game of that two-month sample, does help cancel that out to a large degree, but this shapes up as a less-daunting Angels lineup as a whole than last season.
Luzardo has held current Angels bats, whom he faced a fair amount during his days with the Athletics, to a collective .167 average and .450 OPS across 25 career encounters, a sample during which he's recorded 11 Ks. Meanwhile, the Marlins, who crushed southpaws at LoanDepot Park over the last two months of last season to the tune of a .371 wOBA and 9.5 wRAA, should be able to tee off on the soft-tossing Anderson, especially with a lineup that's been fortified by the addition of Tim Anderson.
MLB Picks for Angels vs. Marlins
- Marlins moneyline (-139 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Marlins -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Jesus Luzardo Over 16.5 outs recorded (-115 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Giants vs. Dodgers Best Bets
The Dodgers, odds-on World Series favorites, are already off and running in the new season. Los Angeles enters Tuesday's NL West battle having won five of its first seven games, including an 8-3 victory over the Giants in Monday's series opener.
The Blue Crew will apparently go with a bullpen approach to their pitching Tuesday as of last report, with Ryan Yarbrough likely to serve as the primary pitcher behind an opener. The veteran left-hander has already made two appearances this season and has allowed just one unearned run on two hits over 4.2 innings. Yarbrough typically does a good job limiting damage and keeping the ball in the park, and he could easily log 4-5 innings if he's cruising.
The Giants will go with a conventional starter in Logan Webb, who put together a tough-luck 11-13 mark a year ago that was accompanied by a 3.25 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 0.8 HR/9. Webb already got this season off to a solid start with a no-decision against the Padres in his first start that saw him yield two earned runs over six innings while recording five strikeouts.
Webb naturally has an extensive history against current Dodgers bats, but it's not a pretty one from his perspective. He's allowed a collective .327 average and .895 OPS over a sample of 179 career encounters. What's more, 18 of the 54 hits he's yielded have gone for extra bases. To make matters more daunting, the quartet of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Will Smith, each of which is already off to a hot start in '24, have gone a combined 37-for-102 (.363) with eight doubles, five home runs and 13 RBI against him while striking out just 15 times in that sample.
Despite Webb's talent, the potency of a Dodgers lineup that's seemingly on a mission this season and now also includes Shohei Ohtani will give Los Angeles a clear advantage.
MLB Picks for Giants vs. Dodgers
- Dodgers moneyline (-141 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Dodgers -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Marlins moneyline (-139 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Marlins -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Jesus Luzardo Over 16.5 outs recorded (-115 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Dodgers moneyline (-141 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Dodgers -0.5 - 1st 5 innings (-105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
