AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

AL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.

This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Aaron Judge would have been an "A" grade player last year -- that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (AL-Only)
Trevor Cahill OAK SP D No No 2
Alex Cobb BAL SP B 2 6 15
Daniel Gossett OAK SP E No No 1
Brian Johnson BOS SP C No 1 4
Jakob Junis KC SP B No 2 5
Lance Lynn MIN SP B 2 6 15
Ariel Miranda SEA SP D No No 2
Daniel Norris DET SP B No No 2
JC Ramirez LA SP C No
This is our weekly look at American League free agents. We have two goals for this article:

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.
2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

This year, we're incorporating grids into the FAAB articles, so users can easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The grids, which are sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. Aaron Judge would have been an "A" grade player last year -- that mark will be reserved for similar high-impact prospects stepping into an everyday role.

As always, if there is a player that was not discussed in the article that you would like to know about, feel free to ask about the player in the comments.

PLAYER TEAM POS GRADE $ (12-Team Mixed) $ (15-Team Mixed) $ (AL-Only)
Trevor Cahill OAK SP D No No 2
Alex Cobb BAL SP B 2 6 15
Daniel Gossett OAK SP E No No 1
Brian Johnson BOS SP C No 1 4
Jakob Junis KC SP B No 2 5
Lance Lynn MIN SP B 2 6 15
Ariel Miranda SEA SP D No No 2
Daniel Norris DET SP B No No 2
JC Ramirez LA SP C No 1 4
Hector Velazquez BOS SP E No No 1
Cam Bedrosian LA RP C 9 19 39
Mychal Givens BAL RP C 5 11 19
Nate Jones CHI RP C 5 11 19
Keone Kela TEX RP C 7 15 29
Darren O'Day BAL RP D 1 3 7
Jonathan Lucroy OAK C B 12 25 45
Danny Espinosa TOR 2B D No No 1
Yolmer Sanchez CHI 2B D No 2 5
Neil Walker NY 2B C 5 11 19
J.D. Davis HOU 3B D No No 2
Mike Moustakas KC 3B B 16 35 65
Aledmys Diaz TOR SS C No 4 9
Eduardo Escobar MIN SS C 2 5 11
Dixon Machado DET SS D No No 3
Adam Engel CHI OF D 2 5 11
Derek Fisher HOU OF A 3 7 15
Dustin Fowler OAK OF B 3 7 15
Boog Powell OAK OF D No No 2
Colby Rasmus BAL OF C No 2 5
Ryan Rua TEX OF D No No 2
Anthony Santander BAL OF C No No 1
Ichiro Suzuki SEA OF E No No 1
Carlos Tocci TEX Of E No No 1

Starting Pitcher

Trevor Cahill, Athletics: Cahill didn't sign with the A's until March 17 and won't be ready for Opening Day, but he made a good impression on manager Bob Melvin in his first spring action and should be ready to join the Oakland staff in a couple of weeks. The 30-year-old actually put up solid numbers last year in 11 starts for the Padres, his first regular turn in a rotation since 2013, but he flopped after getting traded to the Royals and expectations should be kept low given his career 4.37 FIP and 6.6 K/9. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Alex Cobb, Orioles: It took a while, but Cobb finally got a decent payday in free agency, inking a four-year deal with Baltimore on March 20. The 30-year-old doesn't exactly bring stability to the O's rotation – his 29 starts and 179.2 innings last year were both career highs – but the former Ray is a massive upgrade on the various scrubs who had been competing for the final spot. Cobb is ticketed for an April 9 debut as he builds up arm strength, but be wary of his switch in home ballparks. Tropicana Field suppresses left-handed power while Orioles Park at Camden Yards gives it a slight boost, so Cobb – who posted a career-worst 1.1 HR/9 in 2017 – could see that number climb even higher in 2018. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $6; 12-team AL: $15

Daniel Gossett, Athletics: While Cahill stretches out, Gossett figures to see a start or two for the A's. The 25-year-old has put up good numbers in the high minors over the last couple of seasons, but his lack of dominant stuff got exposed in his major-league debut last season, when he gave up a shocking 21 homers in 91.1 innings. Gossett's had a solid Cactus League, posting a 10:4 K:BB – and only one homer – in 9.2 innings, but with Paul Blackburn also expected to join the rotation in April along with Cahill, Gossett is purely a short-term play unless he's completely lights out. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Brian Johnson, Red Sox: The 27-year-old lefty will break camp with a rotation job thanks to all the injuries ahead of him on the Red Sox depth chart. Johnson is best remembered for his improbable 10-K shutout in Fenway against the Mariners last May, but his arsenal doesn't suggest that's a reasonable ceiling for him in the long run and he profiles best as a No. 4/5 starter. If he sticks in the Boston rotation he'll have some value with that offense supporting him, but once the likes of Drew Pomeranz get healthy, Johnson will probably get moved into a long relief role as he's out of minor-league options. The best-case scenario for him might be a hot start, and then a trade to a club that has more room for him in their rotation. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Jakob Junis, Royals: Junis didn't make much of an impression in his big-league debut last year, but he's opened plenty of eyes this spring with his 20:1 K:BB in 14.1 Cactus league innings. The 25-year-old righty posted some big strikeout numbers in the minors too, and while he doesn't have a big fastball or knee-buckling curve, his impeccable control and command allows his otherwise average offerings to play up. Junis probably slid right through early drafts untouched, but if he can even come close to the 10.9 K/9 he rang up in Triple-A last year, he could be one of 2018's breakout arms. That's worth an early investment. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Lance Lynn, Twins: One of the big free-agent losers in this wacky offseason, Lynn had to settle for a one-year deal with the Twins on March 10 after making a successful return from Tommy John surgery in 2017. The 30-year-old isn't a Cy Young contender, but he's been steady throughout his career, making at least 29 starts, winning at least 11 games and striking out at least 153 batters in each of his last five seasons. On a Minnesota team that could be challenging for a playoff spot in 2018, he should be able to provide more of the same. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $6; 12-team AL: $15

Ariel Miranda, Mariners: The 28-year-old lefty will once again round out the M's rotation, at least until Erasmo Ramirez gets healthy. Miranda's had bouts of fantasy utility before, but he's a risky play, and in the long run he'll probably wind up in the bullpen. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Daniel Norris, Tigers: Norris seemed headed for Triple-A Toledo to begin the season, but Mike Fiers' back issues have opened the door for him to stay in the rotation and suck in a few more fantasy GMs with a good start or two before breaking their hearts. He's still only 24 and has top-of-the-rotation stuff, and you never know when the light bulb might go off for him, but his 12:5 K:BB in 14 spring innings doesn't suggest he's sharpened his command enough to take that next step. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

JC Ramirez, Angels: The Angels' desire to accommodate Shohei Ohtani has potentially extended to them experimenting with a six-man rotation, and as a result Ramirez will begin the year in a starting role. He's more than earned the job this spring, posting an 11:0 K:BB in 9.2 innings, and he started off 2017 like gangbusters before fading late under a career-high workload. If he falters, options like Nick Tropeano are waiting at Triple-A, but he could provide some solid innings out of the gate. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team AL: $4

Hector Velazquez, Red Sox: Boston's pitching injuries have also opened up a spot for Velazquez, a pitch-to-contact righty who put up useful numbers for the Red Sox in 2017. His ceiling is low and risk factor high given his pedestrian arsenal, but he could sneak away with a win or two before Pomeranz, Eduardo Rodriguez etc. are ready to rejoin the rotation. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Relief Pitcher

Cam Bedrosian, Angels: Heading into spring training it was widely assumed that Blake Parker would be closing for the Angels this season, but since then things have gotten a lot muddier, with Bedrosian either being suggested as part of a committee with Parker or even the favorite to hold the closer spot outright. The 26-year-old's 10.3 K/9 is certainly worthy of ninth-inning work, but he's had trouble staying healthy in his brief career – last year's 44.2 innings were a career high – and 2016 was his only campaign where his ratios were elite. Still, saves is saves, and even the chance at some makes Bedrosian worth chasing if he slipped through the cracks at the draft table. 12-team Mixed: $9; 15-team Mixed: $19; 12-team AL: $39

Mychal Givens, Orioles: There's talk of a closer committee in Baltimore as well. With Zach Britton still recovering from his Achilles injury, Brad Brach was initially assumed to be the team's ninth-inning man, but now Givens and Darren O'Day have had their names thrown into the mix by manager Buck Showalter. This could well turn into a hot-hand situation, and Givens' career numbers – 2.75 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.9 K/9 – indicate he's got as good a shot as any of the trio of taking the baton and running with it. Britton should be back by June, though, so Givens' window to close won't be open long, and he could just as easily end up with zero saves in those two months as hit double digits in the category. 12-team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team AL: $19

Nate Jones, White Sox: The Joakim Soria trade in January seemed to bring the White Sox their new closer, but now it appears as though both Sora and Jones will get their chances. As we saw last season, "White Sox closer" is a temp job at best anyway, as any success out of the 'pen makes you juicy bait for the front office to dangle in trade talks with contenders, but the biggest obstacle to fantasy value for Jones is his health, not his role. When he's in uniform, he's a big-time strikeout reliever, but he's also pitched fewer than 20 innings in three of the last four seasons. Paradoxically, that might make him the early favorite for ninth-inning duty – he's healthy right now, and GM Rick Hahn may want to showcase him quickly before his next DL stint. 12-team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team AL: $19

Keone Kela, Rangers: Alex Claudio may end up being the 21st century version of Doug Jones, baffling hitters with his slooooow changeup when they're all geared up for heat, but he also may end up being a guy who lucked into 11 saves last year when the Rangers had no other clear options as their closer. Kela and his 11.1 career K/9 offer a more conventional arsenal in the role, but control and health have been issues for him in his career – while the latter hasn't been a problem this spring, his 12:5 K:BB in seven innings say there's been no progress with the former. Manager Jeff Banister is playing it coy with his bullpen plans, but the signs are there suggesting Kela will at least get a chance at ninth-inning work. 12-team Mixed: $7; 15-team Mixed: $15; 12-team AL: $29

Darren O'Day, Orioles: If the O's closer committee becomes situational, O'Day could be the guy getting the nod when the opposition has no portside hitters left to deploy. For his career, he's allowed a .192/.264/.285 slash line and 6.8 percent HR/FB to RHB, but a .226/.296/.413 line and 15.0 percent HR/FB to lefties. That makes him the least likely of Baltimore's late-inning relievers to seize the closer job outright while Britton is on the shelf, but arguably the best bet to at least collect a few saves in a committee. His overall ratios will still make him useful as a plug-in arm, but don't bid expecting a big haul in saves. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $3; 12-team AL: $7

Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy, Athletics: Lucroy signed with the A's on March 9, but we don't know yet which version of Lucroy they signed. Was it the guy who exploded for 24 homers in 2016? The title-hopes killer who managed only a .716 OPS last year despite spending part of his season in Colorado? Or even the early-career version of Lucroy who posted strong batting averages and moderate power from 2012-14? Spring results since he signed have not been encouraging – he's gone 0-for-12 in five games – but given the dearth of talent at catcher, someone is going to break the bank and gamble on one of the better versions of the 31-year-old showing up in Oakland. Frankly, if you went cheap at the position in your draft or auction in a two-catcher league, throwing FAAB dollars around for an upgrade isn't the worst idea, even if it doesn't pan out. In leagues that only roster one active catcher, though, there's really no reason to pounce. 12-team Mixed: $12; 15-team Mixed: $25; 12-team AL: $45

Second Base

Danny Espinosa, Blue Jays: If you don't think the Jays front office is concerned about the health of their starting double-play duo, consider that they brought in Espinosa late in the spring even though they already had two backup middle infield options on the roster in Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte. Espinosa's profile probably isn't going to change at 30 years old – he offers a slick glove, some power and speed, and a complete inability to make consistent contact – and he may only be around until Troy Tulowitzki comes off the DL, but hitting in Toronto has worked miracles with veterans before, so yanevaknow. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Yolmer Sanchez, White Sox: Sanchez appears to have won the White Sox's starting third base job to begin the spring, with Matt Davidson handling DH duties and Nicky Delmonico shuffled off to left field, but Sanchez's fantasy upside still remains somewhat in doubt. If you squint, you can kind of see a poor man's Jose Ramirez in there somewhere, but his 8-for-17 "success" rate on steals in 2017 and potential regression in his .321 BABIP make a washout just as likely as a breakout. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Neil Walker, Yankees: Those with shares in Gleyber Torres shed bitter tears when the Yankees signed Walker on March 12. The 32-year-old will be an entirely adequate option at second base to begin the season, and while Torres is still probably the future at the keystone, Walker's power stroke should play well in Yankee Stadium. A hot start could make him hard to dislodge, even if the kid behind him on the depth chart is tearing up Triple-A. 12-team Mixed: $5; 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team AL: $19

Third Base

J.D. Davis, Astros: Yulieski Gurriel's hand injury opens up an early-season roster spot for a bat, and Davis beat out Tyler White for the honors. It doesn't mean that Davis with see much action, though, as the most likely course of action will see Marwin Gonzalez filling in at first base while Derek Fisher mans left field. Davis' best hope for value could be in an effective platoon with Fisher, with Gonzalez flipping around the diamond as needed, where Davis sees a couple of starts against southpaws before Gurriel returns to the lineup. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Mike Moustakas, Royals: Turns out, Ella Winter was wrong. You can go home again. Moustakas, after failing to land a long-term deal as a free agent following his breakout 2017, settled for a one-year contract with the Royals on March 8, albeit one that includes a healthy option for 2019. While Moose could well repeat his power display from last year, the roster around him has degraded substantially over the winter with Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain gone. That's going to cost him RBI opportunities, and considering he only managed 85 last year despite his 38 homers, he didn't have much wiggle room to begin with. Still, given the prospect scene in the AL, there's unlikely to be a better power bat added to the Junior Circuit player pool any time soon. 12-team Mixed: $16; 15-team Mixed: $35; 12-team AL: $65

Shortstop

Aledmys Diaz, Blue Jays: Picked up for infield depth from the Cards in the offseason, Diaz will be the Jays' Opening Day shortstop thanks to Tulowitzki's latest boo-boo, a bone spur in his heel. Tulo could be back towards the end of April, but that will still give Diaz a few weeks to put 2017 behind him and try to regain his rookie form. If he does so – and hitting in the Rogers Centre certainly won't hinder him in that regard – the club could well decide to move on from the veteran entirely. If Diaz looks more like the .682 OPS hitter he was last season, though, he could have Yangervis Solarte pushing for playing time at his expense even before Tulo comes off the DL. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team AL: $9

Eduardo Escobar, Twins: Escobar was set for a utility role to begin 2018, but Jorge Polanco's suspension instead installs him as the starting shortstop for the first three months of the season. The 29-year-old was one of the quieter heroes of the launch angle revolution last year, slugging 21 homers, and while he's had a poor spring there's no reason yet to expect major regression. Once Polanco is back, though, Escobar will probably return to the bench, so if you do pick up him and he gets off to a hot start, don't wait too long to start shopping him. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: $11

Dixon Machado, Tigers: Machado will kick off 2018 as the Tigers' starting second baseman, but that's just about the only thing to recommend him from a fantasy perspective. The 26-year-old has displayed a touch of speed in the minors, stealing 32 bases in 258 Triple-A games over the last two seasons, but that hasn't translated at the higher level – he's only 2-for-2 on steal attempts in 105 big-league games. Otherwise, expect a lot of empty at-bats from the bottom of a fairly lackluster batting order. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $3

Outfield

Adam Engel, White Sox: The revolving door in center field for the White Sox has revealed another starter in Engel, who beat out Leury Garcia, Ryan Cordell and perennial "if only he were healthy" prospect Charlie Tilson for the job. Engel did have a good spring even if you factor in that it was the Cactus League, slashing .362/.423/.681 with four homers in 18 games, but the 26-year-old hasn't shown that kind of power in the minors. Of bigger concern will be his batting average in extended duty – he had a miserable 61 percent contact rate in his big-league debut in 2017, and he's never posted a contact rate of 70 percent or above in two tries at Triple-A. He does have a 65-steal campaign on his resume at High-A in 2015, so the fantasy appeal is obvious, but he'll need to get on base to use those wheels. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team AL: $11

Derek Fisher, Astros: One of the Astros' seemingly endless stream of hitting prospects, Fisher could be the Opening Day left fielder with Marwin Gonzalez potentially needed to cover first base while Yuli Gurriel is out. Fisher showed five-category upside at Triple-A Fresno last year, but his big-league debut in 2017 was a dud and the 24-year-old still has some things to prove and improve upon, which likely means he'll head to the bench soon enough. If he clicks in the early going, though, he could be tough to remove from the starting nine even when Gurriel gets healthy. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: $15

Dustin Fowler, Athletics: The A's center field situation remains unsettled heading into the final days of spring training. From a fantasy perspective, Fowler is the upside option, but he may not be all the way back yet after having his season end due to a knee injury in his big-league debut with the Yankees last June. He's started to look comfortable again at the plate in Cactus League play, but if the front office decided he needs a little more time to shake off that lingering rust, they could easily run with a Boog Powell/Jake Smolinski (or Powell/Mark Canha, or Powell/Chad Pinder...) platoon in center for a few weeks while Fowler gets reps with Triple-A Nashville. The 23-year-old hit for a consistently strong average in the high minors while racking up 25 homers and 38 steals over 202 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2016-17, though, so if he does break camp with the job, he could make an impact. 12-team Mixed: $3; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team AL: $15

Boog Powell, Athletics: If Fowler isn't deemed ready for an Opening Day assignment, Powell would be the biggest beneficiary. The 25-year-old has had his moments in the minors, including a .340/.416/.490 line with six homers and 11 steals in 58 games for Triple-A Tacoma in the Mariners' system last year, but he profiles best as a fourth outfielder in the majors. A short-term starting job, even if it's only on the strong side of a platoon, could bring a few valuable stolen bases along with it, though. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Colby Rasmus, Orioles: Baltimore decided, probably wisely, that Austin Hays wasn't ready for prime time yet, which opens the door for Rasmus to be the likely starting right fielder on Opening Day, although as yet he hasn't officially been added to the 40-man roster. Last year's small-sample .281 batting average with Tampa Bay aside, it's been a while since he was anything but a liability in that category, but that just means his left-handed power stroke will fit right in at Camden Yards on a team that already features Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo. Hays is still the future at the position, though, so Rasmus' stint as the starter could be a short one if the kid tears up minor-league pitching again. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: $2; 12-team AL: $5

Ryan Rua, Rangers: Somewhat surprisingly, the Rangers decided that Rua would be there starting left fielder to open the season, and not even in a platoon. That state of affairs likely won't last long – the 28-year-old has a career .693 OPS and 29.3 percent strikeout rate in 218 big-league games, and those numbers get even worse against RHP – but he could offer some early-season production if you need to fill a roster spot for a couple of weeks. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $2

Anthony Santander, Orioles: A Rule 5 pick in 2016, Santander ended up spending nearly the entire season on the DL, which forces the O's to take a mulligan and keep him on the 40-man roster for all of 2017 if they want to hang onto him. They probably do, as the 23-year-old switch-hitter has an intriguing base of skills, even if he has yet to see meaningful action above High-A. With the right field spot still unsettled, there's a narrow path to regular playing time for Santander, and he has looked good this spring with a .290 batting average and four homers in 62 at-bats, but more likely he spends the season as Baltimore's fourth of fifth outfielder. For now, he's still of more interest in deep dynasty formats than re-draft leagues. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: It just looks right seeing Ichiro back in a Mariners uniform, doesn't it? The future Hall of Famer is a shadow of his former self and isn't grinding his way towards any MLB milestones, unless you count 10,000 career at-bats as significant – it just seems like the 44-year-old still loves playing the game. And heck, Rickey Henderson hung on until he was 44, so why not? He'll spend most of the season as a bench bat and depth outfielder, but with Ben Gamel nursing an oblique injury, Ichiro could find himself in the Opening Day starting lineup in left field at Safeco Field on Thursday. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

Carlos Tocci, Rangers: If you're looking for steals in a really deep league, have I got a lottery ticket for you. Tocci, a Rule 5 pick out of the Phillies' system, never put up big stolen base totals in the minors, but he went an incredible 8-for-9 on steal attempts this spring in 24 games. Now, he only hit .179 while doing it, and there's little chance he sees a starting role in Texas this season, but the Rangers have some experience nurturing this kind of skill set, having used Delino DeShields Jr. as a set of legs off the bench in the past. Even if he's nothing more than a pinch runner, Tocci could still finish the season with double-digit steals. Just don't expect a contribution in any other fantasy category. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team AL: $1

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Erik Siegrist
Erik Siegrist is an FSWA award-winning columnist who covers all four major North American sports (that means the NHL, not NASCAR) and whose beat extends back to the days when the Nationals were the Expos and the Thunder were the Sonics. He was the inaugural champion of Rotowire's Staff Keeper baseball league. His work has also appeared at Baseball Prospectus.
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