Farm Futures: The First Base Prospect Conundrum

I got into a very nuanced conversation with Bobby DeMuro of Baseball Census on Twitter earlier this week regarding a tweet I sent out noting the power numbers for Pavin Smith and Evan White in the Northwest League. You can follow the thread by going to the tweet below:

How are the "will they hit for power?" 1B doing in the Northwest League? Pavin Smith: .092 ISO, 0 HREvan White: .255 ISO, 3 HR

— James Anderson (@RealJRAnderson) August 8, 2017

On draft day, Smith and White were both seen as first base prospects who may not hit for enough power to be above average offensive options at the position. Smith went No. 7 overall and received a $5.0163 million bonus from the Diamondbacks, while White went No. 17 overall and received a $3.125 million bonus from the Mariners. These prospects were so skilled in other areas of their game that they went in the top 20 of the draft and received healthy signing bonuses despite the concerns about their eventual power output.

I believe it is notable that Smith has zero home runs and a .092 ISO in 162 plate appearances as a professional. I also believe it is notable that White, who is three months younger than Smith, managed to hit three home runs while displaying an impeccable approach (6:6 K:BB) in just 14 games before landing on the DL with a strained quad. I'm not even close to writing Smith off as a prospect -- he still has possibly the second best hit tool in that entire draft class, behind Keston Hiura. I'm also not saying Smith will never hit 25-plus homers, after all if you can hit, there's always a chance that the power comes, sometimes later than expected. These are philosophies that DeMuro and I agree on. We diverged because I think it is noteworthy that Smith has not hit a home run yet, considering that was the only question about his profile at the time of the draft. DeMuro argued that we need 1,000 professional plate appearances before we start drawing conclusions.

Typically, I would agree with him 100 percent. Where I draw the line is with college first base prospects. The bust rate is already sky high on these players for a variety of reasons. They need to be incredibly special with the bat to make it work. Just being able to hit for a high average and get on base at a high clip is not enough to get us excited about a college first base prospect. The power has to be a big part of the profile as well.

Here is the complete list of players who were drafted as college first basemen and qualified as a league average or better hitter at first base (at least 100 wRC+) in at least one season over the past five years (including 2017), and failed to hit at least five home runs in their first taste of pro ball:

Trey Mancini (3 HR in 68 games at short-season ball)
Yonder Alonso (0 HR in 6 games at High-A)
Justin Smoak (3 HR in 14 games at Low-A)
Mitch Moreland (2 HR in 27 games at short-season ball)
Lucas Duda (4 HR in 67 games at short-season ball)

It's an awfully small list. With Mancini, an eighth-round pick in 2013, three home runs and a .121 ISO in his initial assignment to the New York-Penn League certainly did not portend future big-league success, but of course, he was taken 242 picks later in 2013 than Smith in 2017. Alonso had just as much pedigree as Smith, as he was also taken with the No. 7 overall pick in 2008. He only played six games the year he was drafted, and then hit nine home runs with an .838 OPS in 84 games the following season, primarily playing at High-A and Double-A. Smoak, the No. 11 overall pick in 2008, hit three home runs in just 14 games the year he was drafted, but then hit 12 bombs in 106 games while climbing all the way to Triple-A the following year. Moreland, a 17th-round pick in 2007, followed up his two homers in 27 games the year he was drafted by clubbing 18 home runs the following year at Low-A. Duda, the No. 243 overall pick in 2007, didn't really blossom as a major power threat until he repeated Double-A in 2010, but he still managed to hit four over the fence the year he was drafted.

Smith doesn't line up perfectly as a comp with any of these players, but there are some similarities with all of them except Smoak, who was thought of as an extremely advanced power hitter all the way up the ladder, before struggling as a big leaguer in seven seasons prior to this year. It's actually funny that Smoak and White each hit three home runs with an OPS in the .870-.880 range in abbreviated 14-game campaigns the year they were drafted, although White could still return this year.

A lot of prospect evaluators, including myself, hate first base prospects in general. It's easy to see why. Even when they are good, they aren't always actually good, when factoring everything in. The best rule of thumb is to target prospects who don't play first base. The next best rule is to look for high-pedigree first basemen who were drafted out of high school or signed on the international market and hit for power and average while being several years younger than the average player at every stop in the minors. Of course, a prospect fitting that description doesn't always exist in the minors. Yordan Alvarez is probably the closest to fitting that description, but he has struggled to get going after a promotion to High-A. Ryan McMahon checks all of those boxes, except he isn't a true first base prospect, he may just end up there out of necessity.

My top ranked first base prospect is Rhys Hoskins, who was drafted out of Sacramento State in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. He has raked at every stop above short-season ball, hitting for power and average, and yet there are still those in the industry who haven't fully bought into him as a legitimate prospect. Most of this is due to factors that are completely out of his control, but factors that are still legitimate, based on the track record of older first base prospects. Craig Goldstein, minor-league editor at Baseball Prospectus, hinted at the bias a player like Hoskins faces. "People are going to look for reasons why he's not all that rather than reasons to buy in, and that's largely true of first base prospects in general. They just get viewed with a little more granularity, and a little bit of a coarser eye," Goldstein said.

I love Hoskins' swing, his bat speed, his ability to murder mistakes, and his approach, which has improved even after leaving the hitter's haven at Reading. That said, if he flops in the big leagues, I will be a little surprised, but I won't be completely shocked. We've all seen players like Hoskins (the older 1B-only types who have mashed at Double-A and Triple-A) flop too many times to not brace for it when the next guy gets his shot. This is the curse of being a first base prospect, and more specifically, a first base prospect who went to college. They need to impress with the stick at every stop, and they won't get a very long audition at the big-league level if they do not perform.

Smith will likely start hitting for power at some point in the lower levels, but to what degree he will do so is unclear. As a top 10 pick, he will be given more leash than the typical college first baseman, but the general rules still apply. What makes a good first base prospect? "The ability to hit, and hit for power, and do both in spades," Goldstein says. Big-league teams typically agree, as do fantasy owners. We know Smith can hit. The other half of that equation is yet to be determined.