This article is part of our Betting Advice series.
After 18 games of qualifying, the field at the PBA Tournament of Champions (TOC) has been narrowed down to 24 players. The surprise leader is Brad Miller, who finished just outside the cut at the pre-tournament qualifier (PTQ) and only earned a spot in the TOC after two players withdrew. He tops a star-studded field, as six of the top seven players in Tour points have advanced to match play.
As usual, EJ Tackett (+250), Anthony Simonsen (+600) and Jason Belmonte (+700) are the favorites to win it all. While Tackett and Simonsen are nicely positioned in the top 5, Belmonte is lurking in 14th place after qualifying.
Besides the "Winner" and "1-2" Futures, you can also wager on any and every head-to-head match throughout match play starting tonight and tomorrow using the BetRivers Sportsbook app.
I've identified a few of my favorite bets to make today but be sure to follow us on X (@RotoWireBowling & @TheSpatula300) for more picks throughout match play and the stepladder finals.
PBA Tournament of Champions Best Match Play Parlays and Betting Strategy
Game 1: Osku Palermaa over Tom Smallwood + Matt Russo over Dick Allen (+226)
The plan is simple here: I'm taking a couple of the players who performed best on the freshly-oiled lanes throughout qualifying. Like everyone else, they had their ups and downs throughout the tournament, but Palermaa and Russo didn't have any trouble on the fresh.
Game 2: Matt Sanders over Shawn Maldonado + Carlos Granados over Tom Daugherty (+320)
I'm just playing the numbers in these matchups. I view both as coin flip matches, so the fact that Sanders (+100) and Granados (+110) are plus money to win makes them attractive options in this spot.
Strategy for Game 3 and Beyond
I have a baseball betting strategy that has worked well for me and can be applied for PBA match play as well. If a top team loses two games in a row, bet on them to win the third game. If they lose again, bet on them again, increasing your wager. The theory is that top teams (like the Dodgers, Braves, Yankees and Orioles) aren't likely to go on many 3+ game losing streaks. The same can be said for professional bowlers. Every one of the players remaining is capable of winning against anyone else, so if you see any of them lose two or three matches in a row, consider wagering on them in the next match.
Also, keep an eye on Kyle Sherman. During an interview after qualifying, Brad Miller, Sherman's friend and business partner, said that Sherman had considered withdrawing from the tournament due to lingering injuries. The grind of another 24 games over a day and a half could take its toll on his body. In fact, in qualifying we already saw his average drop to 181 in the sixth game of each block. Consider betting against him in games 6 through 8 of each round of match play.
PBA Tournament of Champions Best Futures Bets
Marshall Kent finishing position 1st or 2nd (+350)
Kent is having a terrific year, currently sitting in sixth in Tour points. Though he hasn't been as consistent from tournament to tournament as some of the other players at the top of the season leaderboard, he has shown that when he is lined up, he can earn himself a top seed in the stepladder finals. (He has been the top seed twice and also has a third place finish this season.) His performances on TV have been shaky, so I like the security of winning the bet even if he loses in the championship match.
Anthony Simonsen to Win (+600)
EJ Tackett may be the leader to win another Player of the Year title, but Simonsen isn't going down without a fight. A win here would make it a very interesting race, as Simonsen would move into second place in Tour points and match Tackett with one major and two total 2024 titles. If "Simo" emerges from match play as a top 3 seed for the TV show we'll be very happy that we locked him in at +600 this afternoon.
All odds via BetRivers Sportsbook as of April 24th at 3:00 pm CST
2024 PBA Tournament of Champions TV Schedule
All times listed are local (Eastern Time)
Wednesday, April 24
Cut to top 24 for PBA Tournament of Champions Match Play
Match Play Round 1 (eight games): 6 p.m. on BowlTV
Thursday, April 25
Match Play Round 2 (eight games): 10 a.m. on BowlTV
Match Play Round 3 (eight games): 6 p.m. on BowlTV
Cut to top five for Stepladder Finals
Sunday, April 28
PBA Tournament of Champions Finals: 1 p.m. on FOX
