This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
After another round of unders hitting in Gameweek 10, the odds are slowly adjusting to lower totals across the board. I thought it would happen sooner, but it's possible over/under numbers will look more like the ones from 2022/23 than 2023/24 in the next month.
Or, teams will get tired and goals will come at a heavier rate in the next month. I'm choosing to stick with under bets and double chances.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers, a weekly betting show, where Adam and Chris Owen provide six bets from six different matches. Adam also has a separate Corners & Wagers show where he talks only on corners. He provides four corners bets this week.
Record: 15-15. Up $81 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Southampton at Wolverhampton
Wolves to beat Southampton -105
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I took Wolves moneyline home against Crystal Palace last week and they couldn't hold onto a lead. Playing at home, they gave up 2.51 xG and seven shots on target. Fortunately, I think this is a better matchup for them, as Southampton might have the worst attack in the league.
The Saints won last week, but I'm not sure that means anything. They snuck a late winner from a counter attack instead of using their 65-percent possession to get quality looks on net. At home, they finished with .74 xG from nine shots despite having majority of possession and I wouldn't be surprised if they had more of the ball against Wolves.
Wolves are at their best on the counter and that sets up nicely in this matchup. Combine that with Southampton's attacking woes and I think Wolves finally get their first win of the season.
EPL Best Bets for AFC Bournemouth at Brentford
SGP: Brentford double chance + both teams to score +105
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Brentford have been one of my most successful teams to bet this season since their matches are all fairly similar. Brentford can score against everyone, but they'll also allow goals against anyone. Bournemouth are the better team in the eyes of xG and are coming off a massive win. Still, they aren't good enough to beat most mid-table sides like Brentford at a consistent rate. They probably should've lost at Everton and did lose at Leicester City.
Thomas Frank thrives after losses and the pain of losing Monday's match against Fulham will surely be used to motivate his team. I trust Brentford at home, so they're my double chance pick for this SGP.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Liverpool
SGP: Liverpool double chance + under 3.5 goals +105
Since Aston Villa returned players from injury, they've kind of been in a freefall. Maybe that has to do with matchup or maybe they're tiring in general from the European schedule. I was initially on the Villa side here because of Unai Emery, but it doesn't feel right with how they're playing.
Liverpool unders haven't been as good in recent matches, though I still hit SGPs in their wins against Brighton (under 3.5) and Bayer Leverkusen (under 4.5). There's definitely a chance Emery turns this into a back-and-forth fest with tons of opportunities, but against ball dominant top teams, he's tended to play more defensive and focus heavily on counterattacks.
If that happens in this match, I can see a type of 1-1 or 1-0 result. Liverpool are at their best when their wingers are in open space and I think Emery will want to take that open play away, especially at Anfield.
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EPL Best Bets for Newcastle United at Nottingham Forest
Under 2.5 goals between Forest and Newcastle -115
If you're addicted to SGPs like me, this could be Nottingham Forest double chance with under 3.5 goals. However, I think taking just the total is more safer in this spot. Forest have been great this season, but they can lose to almost anyone in the league.
They're thriving off crazy goal production and a defense that doesn't allow quality chances. Maybe that continues the rest of the season, but there will be times they lose as favorites. Chris Wood has eight goals from 5.41 xG (one PK) and Forest are second only behind Manchester City in terms of goals scored from outside the box with five of their 14 on the season being such. I don't think that'll continue.
As for Newcastle, Eddie Howe changed his formation up slightly in recent games, putting Joelinton on the left wing to provide a bit more of a defensive insurance in the team while Joe Willock floats higher from the midfield. At their peak a couple years ago, this was their strategy and that resulted in a ton of 1-0 wins. I think this is a perfect spot for them to sneak in another 1-0 win (+650), though I'd rather take the under.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 11
- Wolves to beat Southampton -105
- SGP: Brentford double chance + both teams to score +105
- SGP: Liverpool double chance + under 3.5 goals +105
- Under 2.5 goals between Forest and Newcastle -115
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2023: 45-69-2. Down $1,482 on $100 bets.
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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